Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271739
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEVERAL ASSOCIATED IMPULSES CURRENTLY
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH ANOTHER
IMPULSE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO PER MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE EXTENDS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN NOTED.
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SPREADING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AIDED BY NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET. WITH CONTINUED STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THIS
MORNING...MAY SEE THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING.

HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. GOOD MIXING WINDS AROUND 850MB AND INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. IN ANY CASE...INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70S SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE WITH THE
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE MOTION FOR ASCENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH FORCING FROM INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET. PW`S IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2.00" SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW LINGERING
PCPN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. STRATUS MAY
LINGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY AND ALL
OF SATURDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A TRANSITION TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL 3 SITES STARTING THIS EVNG AT KOFK
AND OVERNIGHT AT KOMA/KLNK FOR THESE. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ACTIVITY. SFC CDFNT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACRS THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MRNG SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW AT ALL SITES.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL INCLUDE THIS AT KOFK BUT WILL INCLUDE JUST A SCT DECK
FOR KOMA/KLNK AT THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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