Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140423
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1123 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into Thursday, with
  a 5-15% chance for severe storms tonight between 8 PM -
  Midnight.

- Cooler, dry weather expected going from the weekend into
  early next week.

- Temperatures may warm back up toward the latter half of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Short-Term Forecast (This afternoon - Thursday):

Our surface low has developed over southwest KS and the Oklahoma
Panhandle this afternoon, and we`re seeing the warm front
lifting north through central Kansas. Expect convection to start
to initiate across north central and northeastern Kansas around
5 to 7 PM this evening as the surface low moves into central
Kansas. A line of west to east showers and storms should develop
along the warm front and lift north into southeast Nebraska
around 8 PM. Supercellular structures appear likely initially as
we see 40+ kts of 0-6 kt bulk shear, and over 100 m2/s2 of SFC
to 3 km SRH. The warm front to our south stalls right along the
KS/NE border, with storms crossing north of the boundary as they
move into SE Nebraska this evening. This should limit any
surface-based severe storms making it very hard for tornadoes to
develop. Biggest threats with these storms this evening as they
move into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will be hail up
to golf-ball size and damaging winds.

As the line of storms continues its trek northward toward I-80
and the Omaha/Lincoln areas, we should see a weakening trend as
we see a decreasing trend in elevated instability. This confines
the greatest threat for severe weather south of a line from
just south of Lincoln east to Clarinda, IA. There is still a
marginal (5%) threat for severe storms as far north as Omaha, as
the warm front could set up a bit farther north than we
anticipate.

Once the line of showers and storms shifts north, areas in
southeast Nebraska may see a lull in shower activity, though a
20 to 30 percent chance for showers will continue overnight into
Thursday morning. Areas to the north will see the band of
showers and thunderstorms stall overnight along a line from
Columbus to Tekamah. These areas will likely see our highest
amounts of rainfall from this event, with amounts up to an inch
or more possible.

Thursday, we`ll see the winds shift to northerly during the
early morning hours and ramp up through the day. This will keep
temperatures cooler with highs in the 50s across most of our
area. Shower chances continue across our area through the
morning hours (30 to 80%), tapering off late in the day (10-40%
during the afternoon and evening). Rain should clear out of the
area after midnight Friday morning.

Long-Term Forecast (Friday - Tuesday):

Looking at the broader upper-level pattern going into the
weekend, we see a low cut off and retreat westward over
California setting up a rex-blocking pattern along the west
coast. Over the Northern Plains, we will see shortwaves
injecting periods of cooler weather down as far south as
Nebraska and Iowa and southeast into the Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures Friday and Saturday stay fairly mild as the first
surge of colder air won`t arrive until Sunday-Monday. High
temperatures these afternoons will peak in the 50s to low 60s.
Dry air out of Canada streaming into the region will keep
weather dry and allow for humidity during the afternoons to drop
down into the 20 to 35 percent range by Saturday afternoon.
Sunday we see an increase in northerly winds behind a dry cold
front which will lead to highs in the 40s to low 50s. Despite
the cooler temperatures, we still see humidity during the
afternoon drop down into the 20 to 35 percent range, which
could mean very high fire danger. Monday the winds relax a bit
but temperatures remain cool with highs in the low-to-mid 50s.
Tuesday starts the warming trend that will continue into the
latter half of the week as the stubborn upper-level trough over
the Great Lakes finally pushes off to the east and we see the
upper-level ridge expand eastward into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Showers and storms will continue to push north overnight, though
latest guidance now keeps highest TS chances south of OMA, only
impacting LNK. Expect MVFR visibility with any storm with fairly
widespread MVFR to even IFR ceilings working in overnight into
Thursday morning. Off and on showers are expected to continue
into the afternoon with low confidence on exact timing of any
breaks. Expect VFR conditions to return by late afternoon into
Thursday evening. Otherwise, winds overnight will be out of the
north-northeast around 10 kts before they pick up and gust 20 to
30 kts during the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA


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