Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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711
FXUS63 KOAX 201732
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1132 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Should be able to clear a few counties out of the winter weather
advisory in northeast NE by 6am where precip has ended for the
day. Will continue the advisory where patchy freezing drizzle
continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Mixed precip across the area early this morning is expected to be
winding down and ending between 12Z and 16Z as main instability
and forcing shifts east. Will continue advisory through the mid
morning expiration for now.

Surface high builds into eastern Nebraska this afternoon and
tonight helping to dry things out for a bit before moving east
into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Main forecast concern
for late Wednesday into Thursday will be timing of energy ejecting
from persistent western trough and overrunning warm advection and
moisture from stalled frontal boundary over the southern plains.
Models show similar solution in bringing increasing PoPs into
southern parts of the forecast area by Wednesday evening then
spreading it north into Thursday. Thermal profiles would suggest a
continued likelihood of mixed precip for most of the area with
mainly snow in the northwest. Amounts look to be on the lower end
and due to uncertainty in placement no headlines at this point.
Daytime temperatures do moderate in the south for Wednesday and
Thursday as highs reach at or above freezing by Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Extended period will continue see additional energy coming out of
the western trough and a chance of more precipitation late Friday
into Saturday with another round of mixed precip likely. Temperatures
however are forecast to warm above freezing in the south during
the day both Friday and Saturday so rain is likely there in the
afternoon on Saturday with a mix in the north. Sunday and Monday
are dry for now but some uncertainty due to model solutions in
handling of the upper waves during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Gusty northwest winds will persist this afternoon ahead of a
surface high which will build into the mid-MO Valley tonight.
With the onset of deeper boundary-layer mixing, we are seeing a
steady increase in stratocumulus clouds across the area, and
broken ceilings at FL015-020 could prevail this afternoon.
Moreover, the cloud formation is occurring within the dendritic-
growth zone which suggests some potential for occasional snow
flurries. Both the winds and clouds are expected to diminish by
this evening with prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead



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