Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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309
FXUS63 KOAX 010404
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1004 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

No significant changes to the overnight period. The flurries have
generally dissipated and there has been clearing at LNK. This
should fill back in again overnight. Farther out, we still have a
warming trend for the weekend with a chance for rain/rain snow
mix. There may be a significant system next week with rain Mon and
rain changing to snow by midweek as much colder air works into the
Plains. Will need to pay attention to how this system develops as
more reliable data becomes available as we get into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Main concerns in the short term are cloud cover and potential for
any light precipitation.

Stacked lower and mid tropospheric low centered near the MN/WI
border early this afternoon continued to drop slowly southeast.
That will become less of a factor with time. A fairly potent
trough was moving into the western United States, with 12 hour
height falls of up to 170 meters at 500 mb this morning along the
WA coasts. Impressive 300 mb winds, in excess of 150 knots, were
noted from southwest MO up into ME.

Tonight, clouds currently over the area will likely hold tight.
The exception to that is over the southwest and far southern parts
of the area, where models show lower amounts of moist at and below
850 mb. Lows should be mostly in the mid and upper 20s but could
drop lower than that, if skies become mostly clear. Some flurries
will be possible, mainly into this evening, especially northern
and eastern parts of the forecast area. Moisture depth decreases
after that, so flurries would not be as likely.

Surface pressure gradient will be decreasing tonight and Thursday
as a ridge of high pressure builds east into the area. So, the
trend will be for diminishing winds. Temperatures will remain cool
Thursday, moderate slightly Friday and then warm a little more for
Saturday afternoon.

Trough initially digging into the west today should start to form
a closed mid level low on Friday near the border of Mexico and AZ.
Meanwhile the combination of a trough moving into the northern and
central portions of the Plains on Saturday, and some moisture
moving up from the south could give us a small chance of rain.
The 12Z GFS model was the most bullish with rain potential for our
area Saturday, and for now that seemed overdone. Will include a
slight chance for our far southeast NE counties for now, and see
what later model runs show.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Have some low POPs in for Saturday night, but not overly thrilled
with precipitation potential in our area at that time. Chances do
look better farther to the south and east.

High temperatures should continue to moderate a little Sunday and
Monday, with 40s expected to be common.

Farther out, for Monday and beyond, even though there is fairly
good agreement with the large scale features - there is a big
range in potential for precipitation in our area. The GFS is
fairly wet for Monday, while the ECMWF is mainly dry for that
period. There is a little better agreement now for precipitation
chances Monday night. If it precipitates, it would start out as
rain and then could mix with or change to snow. Confidence is
still fairly low at this point, since there has been model to
model and run to run variation for what may occur in our area
next week. There is fairly good agreement showing a trend for
colder temperatures, starting Tuesday and continuing for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The potent shortwave is still generating some flurries/light snow this
evening. May see some MVFR vsbys with this trailing area of
flurries/pockets of light snow early this evening at KOMA.
Otherwise...look for MVFR cigs at KOFK and KOMA which will improve
later Thursday. West northwest winds at 10 to 15 kts and gusty
will generally drop down a little...then under 10kts later
Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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