Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 142325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Temperatures will be the primary concern in this period, since
thunderstorm chances are quite low.

Main area of stronger jetstream level winds extended from the
Pacific Northwest up into Canada, then main a cyclonic curve
through the Great Lakes region. Water vapor loop early this
afternoon showed a fairly strong impulse over Manitoba moving
east/southeast. Another much weaker impulse was in western ND.
A large mid/upper tropospheric anticyclone dominate from the Four
Corners region up into WY. We will maintain a dry forecast through
Monday, with overall pattern not very supportive for organize
convection. 500 mb heights should increase as the ridge builds
somewhat toward our area from the west. A weak cold front will try
to push into the northeast part of the forecast area Saturday
night, then lift back north Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday, a
cold front will be pushing eastward across the Dakotas, with brisk
southerly flow expected in our area. Chance of storms during the
mid to late afternoon is not zero, but will leave chances at 20
percent or less for now. Will have highs forecast mainly in the
upper 80s to mid 90s the next 3 days, with some upper 90s possible
mainly in northeast NE.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Concerns in this period are heat index values, potentially around
or over 100, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 12Z GFS was fairly aggressive with thunderstorm chances and
with rain amounts Monday night, especially across northeast NE.
That looked too bullish, and will tone things down a bit, closer
to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.

On Tuesday, the boundary that would have been over the area is
expected to lift north during the day. That should push better
thunderstorm chances north or northeast of our area. Combination
of a couple of subtle factors suggests that we could see some
storms Tuesday night. Confidence beyond that begins to fade, but
there should be a frontal boundary somewhere in the region, so
some small rain chances linger into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Areas of MVFR vsbys in fog are likely between 10Z and 14Z at KLNK
and KOMA. There is a chance lower vsbys could occur as well.
Otherwise mainly clear skies tonight and scattered clouds near
FL050 are forecast, with light south winds overnight becoming
southwest near 10kt before 18Z Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Dergan



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