Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 310823
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TODAY

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S-
CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HIRES HRRR IS ADVERTISING
THE LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES PUSH WEST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. DID ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR A BROKEN MVFR
DECK BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT GOES LOWER
OR OVERCAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN



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