Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 181723
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1223 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main forecast concern in the short term will be timing of cold
front on Friday.

At 07z the cold front was just starting to enter the northern
plains region with a stronger push southward across eastern
Montana. Low pressure was located over northwest South Dakota.
A few isolated thunderstorms had also developed over south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas in pocket of elevated
instability indicated by models. May include a broad area of
slight PoPs for this morning to cover activity currently
developing in western portion of the area.

Another hot and humid day is expected across the forecast area in
advance of the cold font. Models show similar timing in bringing
the front into southeast South Dakota and northwest Nebraska by
00Z. After that, at least for tonight, the front slows its
southward progression into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as
it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow with a better push
south into western Nebraska as initial piece of short wave energy
drops into the region ahead of the main trough.

Will go dry across the area after mid morning although an
isolated pop-up storm not out of the question. PoPs increase
tonight starting in northern parts of the area then spread south
with the front on Friday into Friday night. The front is currently
forecast to reach the southeast corner of the area by late Friday
afternoon with potential for severe storms in most of eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Heavy rain is also likely with PW values of 2.00 inches or better
and deep saturated layer indicated on forecast soundings for
Friday evening.

System is expected to move off late Friday night as progressive
upper trough sweeps through the region. Dry and cooler conditions
follows the front for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend as high
pressure moves across the region. Warmer temperatures return by
early next week as the high moves off to the east and ridging
redevelops over the central U.S. in advance of another strong
trough over western Canada. The strong southerly flow and short
wave troughs associated with the western Canada system will bring
another chance of storms to the area by Tuesday and continue into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

VFR conditions are indicated through the TAF period. KOMA and KLNK
should remain ahead of the front through 18Z, with winds remaining
south to southwest and higher clouds. At KOFK, the front may
affect the site near the end of the TAF period, with a switch to
northwest to north winds and with showers and thunderstorms
possible. With uncertainty on time of onset, have included just a
VCTS beginning late morning and a hint of lowered ceilings.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mayes



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