Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 071132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CENTER AROUND TSTM CHANCES/SEVERE WX/FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT.

A LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FLARED UP OVERNIGHT AROUND GRAND
ISLAND AND YORK AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS CONTAINED
PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW.
THIS FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TODAY WHILE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.  AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN
EDGE...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NEBRASKA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CAPPED. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 45-55KTS BY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES POSSIBLE INITIALLY.
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY SETS UP
AS BACKED SFC WINDS WILL FAVOR RISK FOR TORNADIC STORMS WHERE LOW
LEVEL SRH GREATLY INCREASES. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
SOUTH AROUND 00Z/TUE GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THREAT TURNING MORE TO HAIL/WIND THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
PW`S INCREASING TO 2.50" OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST
IA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA...WILL GO
AHEAD AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTH. THIS AREA RECEIVED UP TO 5" OF RAINFALL 2 NIGHTS AGO AND IS
STILL QUITE SATURATED. MUCH OF THE AREA ALSO HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN
AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SLIGHT RISK TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

THE FRONT AND RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AFTER 06Z. WILL LINGER THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z FOR LINGERING FLOODING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR TUE AND WED BRINGING MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND GIVING THE REGION A GOOD
CHANCE AT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  UNTIL THEN
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY WEST OF KOFK THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF
KLNK. KOMA SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVE IN A BIT LATER SUCH AS 23Z.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE TAF SITE LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...NIETFELD



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