Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180435
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Temperatures will be the main forecast problem into Sunday, with
potential for low clouds moving in Saturday night and lingering
into Sunday also a concern.

A ridge of cool high pressure will build over the area tonight,
then slide east on Saturday. Northwest winds have been bringing in
somewhat drier air and with not much sky cover we look for lows in
the mid 20s to lower 30s. Due to a cool start and weak to moderate
mixing on Saturday, highs should reach the mid and upper 50s in
western Iowa / mid 50s to lower 60s in eastern Nebraska.

Increasing southerly flow should bring low level moisture and
possibly low clouds into the area Saturday night, as suggested by
the 925 mb and 850 mb relative humidity progs from the GFS. The
pattern also suggests that there may be some drizzle, but did not
add drizzle to the forecast at this time. There is also some
elevated instability that moves into the area. Best chances for
any measurable precipitation Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening
should stay to our east and southeast. Will have to keep an eye on
that though because a fairly strong front is expected to push
down through the area Sunday evening.

Record highs for Sunday are - Lincoln, 82 set in 1921 / Omaha,
85 set in 1976 / Norfolk, 82 set in 1921. The fire danger could
reach the very high category in southeast Nebraska.

On Monday, it will be quite a bit cooler with highs in the 50s for
our northern zones and mostly upper 50s to lower 60s in southwest
Iowa and southeast Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

This period in general will be unsettled, with several chances for
light precipitation for at least parts of the area from Monday
night into Wednesday.

There is fairly good model agreement with the large scale pattern
at the start of this period. A 500 mb ridge should be over the
Rockies, with a trough off the west coast. The trough will deepen
and the ridge will move east, and then by Thursday a portion of
the trough should be moving into the four corners region. There
are some model differences with the details, but a fairly strong
disturbance is expected to move through the central Plains for
Thursday into Friday. Started to increase POPs Wednesday night
(into the 30-50 percent range) and 40-70 percent for Thursday. The
12Z operational GFS was a bit stronger with the mid level wave,
so preferred a solution closer to a blend of the 12Z GFS ensemble
mean and the 00Z ECMWF. The Canadian model was slower and was also
considered to be an outlier, so not given much weight. The old 00Z
ECMWF was the strongest with the surface low, and appeared too
strong at this time (especially for late Thursday night into Friday
morning).

Nighttime temperatures suggest that a rain/snow mix is possible,
but for now chances for accumulating snow look to be low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A surface ridge axis stretching from the central Dakotas to
central Nebraska as of 04z will continue to build southeast with
light north winds becoming south by Saturday afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail with scattered to broken mid to high-level
cloudiness.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Mead



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