Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 021812
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE 03/06-12Z...BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPS WHICH MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR
BELOW ZERO. ADDED A PROB30 FOR THAT LAST 6 HOUR PERIOD FOR NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER REFINE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A CUT OFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE CA COASTLINE AND
NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE...BROAD
SFC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VLY
AND INDUCE MOIST BACKSIDE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY A RATHER COMPLICATED FCST IS ON HAND TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE COLD AIRMASS...ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW
SHORTWAVE...SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN
CHANGE FROM LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED UPON COMBINATION OF COBB OUTPUT...VERTICAL TEMP/MOISTURE
STRUCTURE PER BOTH NAM AND GFS....INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLUMN SATURATION AND DEEPENING CAA COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEEDY NATURE OF CAA...SUSPECT TRANSITION  WILL
BE SWIFT ONCE IT REACHES THE CWA. THAT ALONG WITH BRIEF TIME FRAME OF
PCPN ACTIVITY...BELIEVE THE NRN CWA WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PLATTE SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE 03/06-12Z...BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPS WHICH MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR
BELOW ZERO. ADDED A PROB30 FOR THAT LAST 6 HOUR PERIOD FOR NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER REFINE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.CO TO MONONA CO BY EARLY TUES AFTN. AS FOR
HEADLINES...PREFER TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FINE TUNE THE AREAS THAT
WILL BE AT RISK FOR WINTRY MIX.

IN ADDITION...SREF SOLUTION IS DEPICTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS
MAKING IT QUITE LIKELY FOR A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
OVER THE NRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MEX/ECMMOS REMAIN CONSISTENT ADVERTISING A GENEROUS TEMP REBOUND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART FRIDAY THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR THROUGH THE 04Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME WHEN CIGS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. STILL A
VERY MESSY WEATHER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
KANSAS BORDER REGION PUMPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL THREE TAF SITES. THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND HAVE BROUGHT IN TEMPO GROUPS AT
EACH TAF SITE WITH A START TIME AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. KOFK BEING
FURTHER NORTH MAY ALSO SEE PERIODS OF ICE PELLETS BUT HAVE NOT
ADDED TO THEIR TAF AT THIS TIME. AFTER 12Z A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW.
KOFK AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING AMOUNTS LESS THAN THAT. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
SNOW WILL END AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GUSTS GREATER THAN 30KT AT KOFK POSSIBLY PRODUCING
POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MEYER


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