Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 171133
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Upper level short wave trough is lifting out negatively across the
Dakotas. This has allowed the surface cold front to move southeast
and at 07Z extended from eastern Iowa to southeast Kansas. The
front is forecast to stall out over southern Kansas and then lift
northward as a warm front tonight into Monday. Isentropic lift at
305K and 310K will occur over eastern Nebraska starting mid-day
today and increase clouds across the area during the afternoon.
Continued lift across the front will allow for thunderstorms to
develop after 00-03Z tonight across southeast Nebraska and then
spread northward during the night. Thunderstorm chances continue
during the day Monday until later in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday is forecast to be dry as the weather system moves eastward
out of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Large upper level trough moves into the northern and central
Rockies on Wednesday. One cold front will move across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A chance of thunderstorms is
possible over northeast Nebraska on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Then upper level shortwave troughs will begin rotaing
around longwave trough out in the Rockies. This will allow low
pressure to develop over the central high plains Thursday and
Friday. Surface front extending from the central Dakotas southward
to low is expected to gradually move eastward through next
weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase over eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa beginning Friday and continue through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period as high
pressure moves into the area this morning then tracks east
tonight. Convection is expected to develop over the western high
plains after 23Z then spread east during the night. MVFR cigs
associated with thunderstorms are possible after 04Z in eastern
Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Fobert



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