Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251957
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL IN
PLACE AT KOMA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z THEN STALL NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT KOFK AFTER 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM AREAS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT


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