Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD


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