Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 242331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WED.
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS PCPN
DEVELOPS. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW BY LATE MORNING AT KOFK
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KOMA AND KLNK. MIXED PCPN LIKELY AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER THE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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