Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 170840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM CONCERN IS DENSE
FOG...THIS TIME OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. METARS FOR SDA/ICL/RDK/AIO
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES. MUCH OF
THIS DENSE FOG IS TIED TO LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL AND GIVEN THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE STICKING AROUND UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER...AT LEAST UNITL EARLY EVENING...AS
THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT FEATURE
ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AVERAGING AROUND 4-6 DM. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FOR OUR AREA CONDITIONS JUST
AREN/T IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...INSTABILITY WANES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
ARE MARGINAL ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED WELL TO OUR
WEST. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STRONG STORMS PROPAGATE
EAST...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR US WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING EAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AFTN/EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. ITS HARD TO SAY THIS WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE AT
MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN HOW HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
RECENTLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECT TIMING/PLACEMENT TO WORK ITSELF OUT IN
FORTHCOMING MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST PICTURE IS QUITE
UNCLEAR WITH A SIMILAR STORY OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. LATEST LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A DOSE OF COOLER AIR
AND VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
FOG DEVELOPING. ISOLD TSRA CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF KOFK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD AFFECT KOMA LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE STILL SUGGEST FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THERE WAS ALREADY SOME FOG IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/BREAK UP BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
ABOUT 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MILLER



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