Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302020
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TONIGHT

EARLY AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER ND. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
SPREADING SEWD OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FORCING...850 TO
700 MB WAA HAD LED TO A BAND OF -RA FROM ERN SD INTO WRN IA. THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY TO CONT TO SLIDE SEWD THROUGH THE ERN CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING ARE LIKELY TO ALSO SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN SD INTO NORTHERN NEB AS THE BETTER QG
FORCING STARTS TO MOV TOWARD THE FA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN CWA
WHERE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE RESIDES...AND THIS APPEARS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS IT
SPREADS SEWD WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT BEST VERTICAL MOTION MOVING
THROUGH THE FA FOR A COUPLE HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA THEN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS THE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT SEWD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE EXITING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THERE ISN`T SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS TO POP UP...AGAIN ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFFECTING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THAT LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THAT WAVE COULD BE PAST THE AREA RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WE COULD ALSO STILL BE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW TO ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY THUNDERSHOWERS TO POP UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GFS STILL
SHOWING WEAK RIPPLES AFFECTING AT LEAST EASTERN NEBRASKA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPS SEEM VERY SEASONABLE IN THE
80S WITH NO OPPRESSIVELY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED. A STRONG WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT TIME. THAT WAVE
COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...OR IT MAY HANG UP ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER FOR TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EFFECT ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME -RA IS LIKELY AT
KOMA EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TSRA ARE MOST LIKELY
AT KOMA/KLNK BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDES A THUNDER MENTION
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE RA AT ALL 3 SITES. WE WILL ALSO SEE
SOME HZ FROM THE FIRES AFFECT THE TAFS AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
MVFR VISBY POSSIBLE. ONCE RA MOVES THROUGH WE WILL SEE A BKN MID
LEVEL DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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