Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER


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