Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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413
FXUS63 KOAX 181926
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
226 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Dry and above normal weather continues through Friday, then rain
chance move into the area Friday night and Saturday.

A cool was moving into northeast NE early this afternoon and
settles southward to the NE/KS line by daybreak Thursday, before
quickly lifting back north of the region by Thursday afternoon.
This will briefly bring cooler temps to the area tonight, with
lows back into the upper 30s in favored cool spots, to mid 40s
along the ridges in the MO river valley.

High temps Thursday easily get back into the mid to upper 70s,
well above normal, with southerly winds developing again. This
trend continues into Friday as a weak short wave moves out of the
mean trough to our west. Wind speeds Friday easily get into the
windy 20-30 mph category, and could even see gusts into the lower
40s across parts of eastern NE by late morning into the afternoon.
The Nam does try to generate a few sprinkles on Friday, but other
models remain dry, thus will just indicate an increase in cloud
cover for now.

We will see a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday
night, and especially on Saturday as a cold front moves into and
through the region. Rainfall amounts Friday night perhaps a tenth
of an inch or less, and amounts Saturday up to one quarter inch.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Precip chances sweep out of the area pretty quickly Saturday
evening, and our blended forecast may even be holding on to precip
too long. All precip should be well east of the area by Sunday
morning, finally bringing temps closer to seasonable readings.
Temps try to recover on Monday, but another fast-moving system
coming out of the northern Rockies brings another front and a
small chance of showers to the area Monday night. Sharply cooler
temps are then forecast next Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, although the EC would suggest a little
warmer values closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions today at all sites with period of high cloudiness.
A cold front moving through will bring veering winds...southwest
winds shifting around to the north. The winds will be variable
through 00Z mainly 8 to 15kts. The stronger winds will be from the
northwest at KOFK with some gusts over 20kts. After 00Z...the
variable winds becoming north at all sites will settle down to
under 10kts. After 12Z...the winds will be light from the
southeast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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