Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 210913
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
413 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Mid-level frontogenetic band of showers continues to move
southeast across southern South Dakota/northern Nebraska. Forecast
soundings across the northern CWA show quite a bit of dry air to
overcome before any precipitation reaches the ground but
eventually we could wet-bulb down allowing some light snow to mix
across northeast Nebraska this morning. Precipitation should be
rather brief as this mid-level band quickly drifts east but could
drop a narrow band of an inch of snow across our northern CWA. Dry
conditions are expected by early this afternoon with easterly
flow at the surface around large surface high pressure moving east
across the Great Lakes region.

Will continue a small chance of pcpn Wednesday morning as isentropic
upglide increases in mid-level warm air advection region across
north central and northeast Nebraska. Forecast soundings indicate
primarily snow but this should be short-lived and minor, if any,
snowfall accumulations.

By Wednesday night, a deepening trough over the Great Basin is
forecast to close off and move northeast into the Rockies. Ahead
of this, increasing southerly flow will draw moisture north from
the Gulf with scattered showers/drizzle likely developing
Thursday in strong warm air advection regime.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Active weather is expected into the early part of the weekend as
potent and nearly vertically stacked low ejects into
Kansas/Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms look possible into Friday
afternoon before cold front drops south behind the system Friday
night leaving the area in the cool sector into the early part of
the weekend. Another system will be quick to move into the Plains
by Sunday night allowing a continuation of pcpn chances into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Main concern is possible pcpn at KOFK and KOMA this morning. An
upper disturbance moving across the nrn Plains will aid with
development of narrow swath of pcpn extending from about s-cntrl
SD into nern Neb. As of now...expect -RA to be reaching KOFK
sometime around 12z and KOMA around 14z. Pcpn activity should come
to a close then around noontime. As for KLNK...no -RA expected
this morning.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DEE



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