Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 221207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS START OFF THE PERIOD AT KOMA AND KLNK WHILE KOFK
REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT KOFK TO BECOME VFR
BY 15Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST.
LESS CERTAIN ON TIMING AT KOMA AND KLNK BUT TREND TOWARD VFR
15Z-18Z. LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT


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