Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 121132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

STILL LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...TSTM CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PCPN TYPE SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
ONE JET STREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING TOWARD NRN BAJA CA
AND ANOTHER WAS PUNCHING EWD FROM ERN MT. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF
AROUND 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER ERN WA AND SRN BC WITH ANOTHER
SIMILAR AREA OF FALLS OVER CA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WORKING
ITS WAY NWD...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 11 C AS FAR NORTH AS
NORMAN OK.

SURFACE CHART AT 08Z SHOWED ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SRN SD TO
THE NORTHWEST OF KONL AND ANOTHER IN ERN CO. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WERE MOVING NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NRN LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN IA TODAY.

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED SOME ECHOES ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES BUT AMOUNTS SPOTTY AND LIGHT.

TODAY...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST...BUT DID BUMP
HIGHS UP JUST A BIT SRN ZONES BASED ON LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. WE
STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND INTO SWRN IA. RECENT RUNS OF 13 KM RAP AND SOME OF THE
OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT. ML CAPE VALUES REACH
AS HIGH AS AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS EVENING OVER SERN NE
AND SWRN IA.

PCPN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE SOME
ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS IS INDICATED. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BANDING. MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SERN ZONES BY MID
MORNING AS COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALSO...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN NERN NE...PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND
PROBABLY CHANCE TO SNOW BASED ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLOWLY FALLING ALL DAY SUNDAY. SNOW COULD SPREAD TOWARD
OMAHA AND LINCOLN BY LATE AFTN. FOR NOW...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST AREA WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH.

PCPN WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO MAINLY LOWER AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

STILL LOOK FOR GENERALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. BUT PCPN
CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF NERN NE
THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

MODEL ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS LATE NEXT WEEK
SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS TO ABOUT AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE BY
THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MOST PRESSING AVN ISSUE IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH
TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AT KOMA/KLNK. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL REVOLVE AROUND A STATIONARY FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
CNTRL KS TO CNTRL IA BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE THEN BTWN 06Z-12Z SUN. AS FOR KOFK...APPEARS THAT
CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW THAT ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KOFK. IS PROBABLE THOUGH KOFK WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS SETTLE IN BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



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