Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 042141
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Forecast concerns in the short term will be very strong northwest
winds through this evening for much of the area and the
combination of snow and winds in northeast Nebraska along with
falling temperatures...wind and weather headlines.

At 2pm...temperatures were still in the 50s across much of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, however freezing
temperatures were not far away at ONL. A pre-frontal
trough...dryline did bring some drying and sunshine...however and
the cold front is pushing through with clouds filling in and
falling temperatures becoming more pronounced.

The h5 trough over southeast Wyoming with 130m ht falls is
quickly rotating across South Dakota and Nebraska with some
deepening and should be over WI by 06Z. Very strong winds on the
backside of the system are mixing down to the surface. Although
many locations saw 35 to 49 mph winds with the initial front,
stronger winds will mix down through early this evening.
The max HRRR/RAP windgusts are across parts of central NE and
South Dakota. Strong windgusts continue from mid afternoon in
northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa through early
evening...decreasing 03-06Z. Most wind gusts in the 40 to 55 mph
range, however there will be pockets of higher gusts.

A wind advisory remains in effect through midnight...however parts
of the advisory may be be cancelled earlier due to the winds
subsiding earlier on the west and southwest edge of the advisory.

The WSR-88D is lighting up to our east with a line of
thunderstorms. To our northwest wind driven snow is fall and
reducing visibilities to a 1/4 of a mile. Sleet may be occurring
ahead of the snow where it appears a little more convective in
nature and the temperatures are more marginal. The short range hi
resolution and operation models take the bulk of the snow north of
the forecast area with light amount...mostly less than an inch for
parts of northeast Nebraska. Most of the area will generally
experience the strong winds and falling temperatures into the 20s
by midnight. Most lows should range from the upper teens to the
lower 20s.

Due to the combination of the very strong winds, falling snow,
blowing snow, and flash freeze conditions, do have a short winter
weather advisory in effect for five counties in northeast
Nebraska through early this evening.

Winds aloft will start out strong Tuesday...however a weak
shortwave in the flow will actually bring in a little warmer h85
temperatures and should see a rebound in temperatures in the
southwest and flurries possible farther north. Highs should range
from 32 to 45.

Reinforcing cold air arrived Tuesday night and Wednesday and this
in turn could have some light snow and flurries with it as it
pushes south and again as retreats back north. Highs Wednesday
should be in the 30s and 40s, however Thursday, should only be in
the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

The longwave pattern at the beginning of the extended has the
trough over the Great Lakes toward Arkansas with a large mid level
ridge over the western U.s. We remain in-between the very cold
air to the east over the Great Lakes and the moderating
temperatures to the west. We start to see moderating temperatures
into the 40s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

A strong cold front is rapidly progressing through eastern NE and
western IA as of late morning with northwest winds of 20G30+KT
behind it. Further strengthening of the wind (30G40+KT) is
anticipated late this afternoon into evening before gradually
diminishing overnight. Latest model guidance is not capturing the
extent of MVFR ceilings currently being observed within the post-
frontal environment over western into central NE. As such, we will
diverge from their solutions and indicate a period of prevailing
MVFR ceilings at KLNK and KOMA this afternoon into evening, in
addition to the more certain MVFR conditions at KOFK. It appears
that the primary swath of -RASN or -SN will lift to the north of
KOFK later today, so we will only include a TEMPO group for now.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-
     012-016>018.

IA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Mead



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