Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 100823
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
323 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Water vapor imagery this morning was showing an upper low centered
over the central High Plains preparing to push into WRN KS. At the
surface, large area of high pressure was pretty much in control over
most of the central CONUS. Also, a cold front extended from ERN IA
to ERN OK with cold air advection spilling into the central Plains.
Issue for today is when pcpn will end. Regional 88D was showing a
narrow band of post-frontal pcpn over NRN IA extending WWD then
curling into ERN NE. This in part to moderate 305k upglide/DPVA. The
RAP13 continues to prog the main upper circulation crossing thru KS
today with best dynamic forcing/moisture shifting into IA. As of
now, RAP13/HRRR both indicate pcpn activity should be clear of the
CWA sometime late this afternoon with cloud cover gradually
decreasing from west to east.

GFSLAMP meteograms were suggesting near steady temps in the mid 40s
thru this afternoon mainly over southeast NE and the IA CWA.
However, with clearing skies out west, GFSLAMP guidance indicates
low 50s will be possible over the NRN CWA.

Otherwise, southerly flow/increasing thicknesses building into the
central Plains will resulting in warming trend with highs on
Wednesday topping out around 60, then the upper 60s/low 70s on
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Precip chances Friday thru Sunday night are revolving around a
meandering surface boundary shifting across the CWA. Both GFS/ECM
somewhat agree showing a cold front pushing south before stalling,
then lifting north as a warm front. The boundary then eventually
reverses course and heads south again as a cold front Sunday night.
Given this, have low confidence with respect to Max/Min temps next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Showers/rain will continue overnight into Tuesday morning. KOFK
should be on the edge and thunder should remain to the
south...however KOMA and KLNK could see some isolated thunder for
the next few hours with strong frontogenesis. MVFR cigs with the
precipitation at KOMA/KLNK. North winds under 10kt at
KOFK...however stronger winds 10 to 20 kts at KOMA and KLNK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-016.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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