Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 141822
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
122 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN...PROBABLY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...THIS
AFTERNOON TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS SHOW THAT TREND...AND THESE MAY EVEN LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND 40 UP TO THE LOWER AND
POSSIBLY MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROF
SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WITH POTENT VORT MAX JUST EAST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION. UPSTREAM THEN...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE WRN CONUS/WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS STATES. OTHERWISE AREA OF -SN HAS
FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SWRN IA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF THOUGH BY MID MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MEAN TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
THRU THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN COMING WED/WED NIGHT
WHEN NEXT PAC NW SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH. DEEP TROF ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TEMP
SWING OVER THE REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...AND AT THIS POINT COLD
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO HANG IN TIGHT AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT. COLD THEN
TODAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. FURTHERMORE...
GUSTY NW WINDS/COLD WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ENSURE LOUSY CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY. AS FOR HIGHS TUE/WED...MODERATE REBOUND ADVERTISED
BUT STILL JUST BELOW NORM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WED AFTN/NIGHT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ADVERTISING DEEP LYR QG FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE AT TIME
OF FROPA. PCPN TYPE INITIALLY RA...THEN POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING WHEN BRUNT OF CAA ARRIVES. FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THRU FRIDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS THE
REGION. SAT NIGHT/SUN...ECM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER SRN
NEB/ERN KS IN RELATION TO 295K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEF. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED WITH SMALL POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...
WARMING TREND ON TAP THRU THE EXTENDED PD WITH LOW 70S ARRIVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE INTO NCNTRL NEBR AT 18Z WILL SPREAD
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE FL040. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS COULD PRECEDE DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WINDS DECREASE
AGAIN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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