Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE ENDING OF RAIN/SNOW...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS/WIND HEADLINE...AND TEMPERATURES.

THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(RAIN/SNOW/MIX)...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED ABOVE 740MB AND DURING THE
EVENING THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED THROUGH. THE 160KT H3
JET WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO COLORADO AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT 09Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF DES MOINES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/METARS SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED. THE COLD POCKET IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
NEAR WAYNE AND NORFOLK HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MAX LIFT IS EAST OF THE
AREA AND OMEGA IS ON THE WANE. ONLY AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO LESS
THAN 0.05 IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY/PROTECTED SURFACES WOULD BE SLIGHT AND SHOULD MELT FAIRLY
QUICKLY.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ADVISORY TO ACCOMMODATE
THIS. THE OMAHA METRO WAS ON THE FRINGE AND FET HAD BEEN BACK AND
FORTH WITH WINDS 25-28KTS...SO INCLUDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. AT LAST CHECK LNK WAS 29G40KT AND
NEBRASKA CITY 25G31KTS HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE.
THE HEADLINE RUNS UNTIL 9AM. THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BY 6PM.

SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW USHERS
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY.
COULD WE SEE RECORD WARMTH? PROBABLY NOT.  RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING
AT HIGHS MID 50S TO MID 60S.  THE RECORDS ARE 68 SET IN 2002 AT BOTH
OMAHA AND LINCOLN AND 74 AT NORFOLK SET IN 2002.

ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR
TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING...THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S AND 60S...JUST NOT
FULLY REALIZING THEIR MAX TEMP POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MORE WARM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS
PRETTY DRY...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE ANY RAIN MENTIONED WITH
IT. COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER THESE WINDS SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

STILL BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
GFS/EC/GEM ARE CONSISTENT FRIDAY IN THAT A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF
WILL EXTEND FM MONTANA SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA. THEY DIFFER ON HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY EVOLVES AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY GETS CUT OFF AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON IT/S PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AND NOW KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH.  THE EC ALLOWS AN ARCTIC FRONT
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO IMPACT THE PLAINS EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS NEAR FL015 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES INTO THE EVENING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CLEARING WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z AT ALL SITES. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z AND BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN


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