Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 041137
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT AND 2000 J/KG
INSTABILITY AXIS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. UPWARD MOTION WAS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF AN 80+KT JETSTREAK AT
300MB. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS ALSO IN PLACE WITH PWATS UP TO 1.7
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS SLOWLY TRAIN THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS OVER
KANSAS WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL THEN EXPAND
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED...AS BULK SHEAR
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 TO 40KTS AND CONTINUED COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL HINDER
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP REMAINS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT ALL SITES
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY KOMA/KLNK. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SNUCK INTO KLNK AND MAY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. SHOULD SEE A QUIET PERIOD AT ALL SITES...BEFORE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CREEPS BACK TOWARD AT LEAST KOMA/KLNK IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



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