Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 012015
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA REALLY FOULED THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE CONVECTION RESULTED
IN A MESO HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THAT...COMBINED
WITH EXTENSIVE BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS HAS REALLY LIMITED THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COORDINATED WITH SPC EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO LOWER THE RISK CATEGORY AND THIS STILLS SEEMS ON TRACK.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE EAST SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AND THEY COULD
VERY WELL FALL APART IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS A ALSO
DEFINITIVE BACK EDGE TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...WITH NOTED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
I80 THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE
LIMITED. BETTER STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
WHERE MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS...AND THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND WHILE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...IT MAY
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT WESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT ROLLS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL FELT NAM/GFS HAD A VERY POOR HANDLE ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...THUS USED A BLEND OF
HRRR/RAP/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS FOR POP TRENDS TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...WE SHOULD
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A HOT AND HUMID
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH COLD FRONT ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80 AT PEAK HEATING...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WITH ALL ACTIVITY
PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...OR STALLED ALONG THE
KS/NE BORDER. AREAS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WITH COOLER TEMPS
THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DAILY CHANCE OF
STORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...THAT IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A REINFORCING FRONT MID WEEK BRINGS MORE RAIN CHANCES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS RELATIVELY LOW AND
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING BY SATURDAY...BUT MODEL BLENDS
RESULTED IN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THIS ISSUANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FROM TAFS
AS IT APPEARS NOW THAT ANY TSRA ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER
ERN NEB WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE. THUS VFR
PREVAILING THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE


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