Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 270827
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convective complex across central NE/KS will continue to push
eastward into our this morning. Thus have increased pops for this
morning into the 60-80 percent range. Severe storms across north
central KS will probably weaken as they push eastward into our
area. Areas north of I80 may not even see much lightning this
morning with just showers or a rumble of thunder. Areas along/south
of I80 have the best chance to see any stronger storms this
morning, as storms take advantage of daylight and warming
temperatures, and will have to watch for storm intensification
14-17z, again south of I80 as the complex continues to make
eastward progress and clear the CWA 16-19z, depending on area.
Then, additional strong convective development is possible this
afternoon/evening, but latest Highres CAMs suggest the strongest
storms may indeed by /just/ south of the forecast area in eastern
KS/central MO, since most of our area may be too far north within
the cool sector, and may not have sufficient time to recover after
the morning convection. Will still have shower/storm chances this
afternoon and early evening, but right now, the greater threat
appears to be setting up south of the region this
afternoon/evening.

The remainder of the holiday weekend is looking great with dry
weather and temperatures in the mid 70s. There is a weak wave that
moves through Sunday night, but not strong enough to generate
precip just yet.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday both look dry, but rain chances return by
Thursday and Friday as moisture and dynamics return to the area.
Temps through the extended in the 50s and night and 70s during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Mosaic radar data as of 04:30z indicate a couple of separate
convective clusters: one over the NE Sandhills and another more
intense complex over northwest KS. The former will likely continue
east overnight with extrapolation bringing it into KOFK between
09 and 10z. At KOMA and KLNK the onset of precipitation is a bit
more uncertain with consensus of model guidance indicating
increasing probabilities in the 11-12z time frame. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will could linger at all three TAF sites until
early to mid afternoon before shifting to the south and east.
Ceilings should largely remain VFR, though we have indicated the
potential for brief MVFR conditions at both KOMA and KLNK within
the heavier morning storms.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead


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