Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 290814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
314 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Prolonged rain event now underway across eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa this morning.

Strong northward moisture transport was in place across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri at 07z with models maintaining this
trend through the day as moisture area broadens and axis shifts
eastward into Missouri. Southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
still appear to have best chance to receive the most significant
rainfall today as the main weather system over the southern
Rockies tracks into south central Kansas by late afternoon.

Although rain will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday as
the main moisture axis shifts east ahead of the slow moving system,
light to moderate rain is expected to continue as isentropic lift
remains over much of the forecast area through tonight. System
continues its slow track east on Thursday reaching central
Missouri by late Thursday afternoon. Lingering showers are likely
for much of the day Thursday especially in the east before ending
Thursday evening as the system moves further off to the east.
Clouds may decrease enough on Friday for at least a peek of
sunshine but the next system will be moving into the southern
Rockies Friday afternoon poised to bring another round of rain to
the area for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

As mentioned above, another strong upper trough will move into
the southern Rockies and then the southern plains Friday night
into Sunday bringing another chance of rain to the area for the
weekend. Main difference this time is that models are similar in
taking this system further south with the more persistent rainfall
also dropping south so some chance of sun by late Sunday afternoon.
Dry conditions then for Monday but some chance of rain again by
Tuesday as next trough moves into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

RA is spread into the TAF sites late this evening. This trend is
expected to continue into the overnight hours with intensity
increasing late tonight and into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings
continue at KLNK/KOMA and are expected to move into KOFK late
tonight. The heaviest rain of the rain is expected during the
morning at KOMA/KLNK with MVFR/IFR visby expected. The rainfall is
expected to become showers during the afternoon. There is some
small chance of thunder at KOMA/KLNK late in the afternoon or
evening the evening on Wednesday, but chances appear to low to
include in the forecast currently.




LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Boustead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.