Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 290856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
356 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Models continue to advertise large scale pattern becoming well
amplified over the next couple days with an upper ridge becoming
established over the central conus by mid week. Meanwhile...influx
of gulf moisture into the central plains will continue until
surface building in from the north advects a drier air mass into
the CWA. POPs in going forecast look reasonable for now as models
persist in showing several impulses undercutting the developing
upper ridge will help maintain potential for precip activity
across the majority of the central plains. Thus...moderate
instability coupled with moisture rich environment will be enough
to pop off mostly scattered TSRA from this afternoon through about
Wednesday afternoon. Dry air mass filtering Wednesday night will
keep any precip activity south of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC are in general agreement impulses ejecting out of
the swrn  conus along with surge of low level moisture return/bndry
lyr theta-E advection will increase precip chances through most of
next weekend. Chance POPs already in place look reasonable for
now...so no major changes planned.

Otherwise...near below normal max temps expected through the
extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Some TSRA continue from parts of southern Nebraska into northwest
Missouri. Did mention VCSH at KLNK and may have to amend if the
pcpn continues to lift north. There should generally be quite a
bit of mid and high level cloud cover. Chance of TSRA appeared
high enough to mention a PROB30 group at KLNK and KOMA in the
mid/late afternoon and early evening for Monday.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller



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