Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111126
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
426 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

Upper trough dropping south of the state this morning, and with
radar and obs suggesting snow has ended across srn CO, will drop all
pops and end the winter wx advisory with the latest forecast
issuance. Skies will become mostly clear over the region today in
the wake of the trough, though with plentiful snow cover in place
and only modest winds, nudged max temps down a few degf many
locations, as it will likely take until mid/late afternoon to push
above freezing over most valleys/plains/I-25 corridor. Next upper
trough then drops southward through the Great Basin late tonight,
allowing mid level flow to gradually turn southwestward across the
state by early Mon morning. Moisture and clouds will begin to
increase across the area after midnight, with light snow breaking
out along the Continental Divide toward sunrise as upward motion and
favorable orographic flow push eastward into the area. Mins will be
seasonably cold at most locations given residual snow cover, with
perhaps some minor warming after midnight as clouds begin to
thicken.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 426 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

Monday and Tuesday...An upper trough of low pressure system will be
situated over the Great Basin early Monday morning, with brisk sw
flow over the Four Corners drawing moisture up into western CO. This
trough is forecast to strengthen, with an upper closed low
developing and shifting to the southwest across NV and Southern CA
through Tuesday night. all of the Continental Divide is expected to
receive accumulating snow over the course of 48 hours, though the
southwest mts will receive the heaviest amounts with a total
snowfall potential of 6 to 10 inches, and localized amounts up to 13
inches. The rest of the higher terrain may see amounts in the 3 to 7
inch range, while the plains will remain dry. Look for high temps in
the 40s for most locations on Monday, then warmer on Tuesday as
downslope flow increases with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Wednesday...The upper low is expected to sit off the southern CA
coast Wed, with just some isolated to possibly low-end scattered
snow showers along the Continental Divide. The main concern for Wed
will be the increasing w-sw flow across the forecast area, with aftn
wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. This will help bump temps up into the
50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to near 70F for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Extended models indicate that the upper
low moving back onshore across the desert southwest late Wed night,
while another disturbance aloft in the northern stream drops down
across the Rockies. The two features merge, bringing pcpn chances
back to the state for Thursday through Friday morning, then cool but
dry northwest flow for Saturday. Expect max temps each day to range
from the upper 40s to upper 50s for most areas. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 426 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

VFR expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Some patchy
stratus lingering around KCOS as of 11z, but given drying aloft and
weak north wind, will keep lower clouds just sct in the taf for now.
Still a low risk of some ground fog at the terminals this morning as
upper level clouds clear, though will watch the obs before adding
any mention in the tafs. Tonight, clouds increase along the
Continental Divide, and IFR cigs/vis will develop toward 12z Mon as
snow begins over the higher peaks.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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