Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 292120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
320 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENTLY...UPPER WAVE...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND PV
CHARTS...LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. CAPES ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
RUNNING IN THE 500- 1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE MAX 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS LIES ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. LATEST SVR WATCH FROM SPC
DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS BEST SHEAR/CAPE STAY FAIRLY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. STILL PROBABLY ENOUGH CAPE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
REPORT OR TWO WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH FAIRLY VOLUMINOUS
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...CELLS ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER HAVE ALREADY PUSHED A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS OF
21Z...AND WOULD EXPECT EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT
IS AIDED BY ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. IN FACT PRECIP COULD LINGER PAST
SUNSET IN THESE AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING IN NM BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING MOST MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR
VALLEYS...CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING -SHRA ALONG THE NM BORDER EARLY SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA QUICKLY AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NM/TX. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LATEST 4KM NAM SHOWS VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS COLORADO SAT AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.
VARIOUS OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS...ARE A LITTLE MORE
PLENTIFUL WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...EVEN TAKING A COUPLE TSRA INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SUSPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ALIGN MORE
WITH THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS....SO KEPT POPS IN THE LOW SCATTERED
RANGE OVER MOST MOUNTAINS...JUST ISOLATED FOR THE I-25 AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY ONE MORE DAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE 70S FOUND
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEYS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TAME COMPARED TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF MAY.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD SUPRESS
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD GET INTO THE 80S...AND MAY
EVEN BUST THE STRING OF SUB-84 DEGREE DAYS AT KPUB.

MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH CO OVER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD STAY AT SUB-SVR
LEVELS. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
OVER THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...SW FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
WILL DRY US OUT AND KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE. COULD SEE SOME AREAS
APPROACH 90 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO 90 AT KLHX AND KLAA. HOWEVER...WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WARM DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE
THAT THEY PLAINS HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH. STORMS WILL REMAIN DIURNAL
AND GENERALLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE DRY SW
FLOW...EVEN THE MTS MAY SEE NO STORMS ON TUESDAY.

BY THU AND BEYOND...GLOBAL MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAS THE
JET MOVINGT INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER N
WITH THE JET. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SVR WX
TO THE PLAINS AND HIGHER POPS IN GENERAL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL STICK TO THE ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECAST
GRIDS...WHICH MAINTAIN SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER WITH LOW POPS MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH TSRA VICINITY OF KCOS UNTIL 00Z...AND NEAR KPUB
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR TO MVFR...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS UNDER STRONGER STORMS. -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-25 08Z-10Z... WITH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA.

ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...INCLUDING KALS...TSRA
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE INTO THIS EVENING...ENDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING WITH ONLY
SOME VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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