Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270547
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1147 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WILL TAKE DOWN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT FAR EASTERN PLAINS
ADJACENT TO KANSAS. WAVE IS COMING UP NEAR 4 CORNERS BUT SOME
DRYING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOSING INTO MOST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. FAR WEST AND FAR EAST COULD STILL CATCH IT. SINCE FAR
EAST IS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL KEEP WATCH GOING THERE. FOR THE
FAR WEST...NOT MUCH TODAY AND APPROACHING CONVECTION NOT LOOKING
VERY STRONG...SO THINK IT IS OK TO DROP WATCH THERE.

ELSEWHERE...STILL SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO COME
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INTENSITY NOW FOR FLASH FLOODING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HOLDING ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. STILL GOOD FOR FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE HAS SERIOUSLY WANED FOR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA. MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL YET TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WHICH IS WHY I AM HOLDING ONTO THE
WATCH. HOWEVER...NOT SEEING MUCH...IF ANY...GOOD CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AHEAD OF THE WAVE YET.  JUST NOT LOOKING PROMISING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE I MAKE THE
CALL. THERE IS STILL A TON OF MOISTURE OUT THERE AND RAIN
PROCESSES...IF THEY CAN GET GOING...WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT. ONLY
UPDATES AT THIS TIME WERE TO ADJUST SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A ONE OR TWO
ISOLD SVR....

CURRENTLY...

PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.4" OVER PLAINS AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. MAIN TROUGH STILL BACK IN NV...BUT A LEAD SHORT
WAVE WAS COMING AROUND THE TROUGH AND WAS LOCATED OVER NW AZ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF STORMS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

ALL GUIDANCE INDICATE WET CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. HRRR
WAS FAVORING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA REGION WHILE RAP
WAS FOCUSED A BIT MORE UP NEAR THE PIKES PEAK REGION. GIVEN THE
FORCING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF
THE REGION. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS E CENTRAL CO. BURN SCAR AREAS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. HPC IS TARGETING CENTRAL AND
NE CO FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST
MESO PRECIP DISCUSSION (MPD) FROM THE WPC.

TONIGHT...

UNLIKE MOST EVENTS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. BEST FORCING/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COMES ACROSS
THE SW MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY S OF US-50.
FOR THIS REASON...CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 3 AM WED
MORNING. WITHOUT SAYING...KEPT POPS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS.

THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE C MTNS TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

MAIN LOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOL ALOFT SO
MAY SEE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
ALLOWING FOR MORE SUN OVER THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY TOMORROW. STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL BE
ACROSS THE C MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION.

WE MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TOMORROW AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND CAPES WILL BE ABOUT 1000-1500 OVER
THE E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GET STORMS
GOING...AND WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT STILL TO OUR WEST FAVORABLE UVV
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. SPC HAS A GOOD PART OF THE PLAINS IN A 5%
RISK.

STORMS TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOVING AT A BIT BETTER CLIP AS COMPARED TO
TODAY. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SWINGING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE CO/UT STATE LINE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU AND FINALLY
REACH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES FRI MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE WED
NIGHT...AND WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST PCPN
COVERAGE WILL START TO LESSEN THU NIGHT...THEN FINALLY DIMINISH TO
THE EAST FRI MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. LOOK FOR SCATTERED
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED EVE THROUGH THU...WITH PCPN LIKELY
OVER THE MTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THROUGH FRI WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
ACTUALLY BRING SOME FRESH SNOW TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS AS WELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SW US FOR SAT...THEN FLATTENS OUT AS ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH PASSES TO
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENERGY...AND PCPN...NORTH OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERN CO SHOULD
EXPERIENCE BRISK W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PCPN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE RESTRICTED TO JUST ISOLATED DIURNAL
ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO
THE 80S NEARING 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALL AREAS.

FOR TOMORROW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS...MVFR...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS AFTER
08Z...AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE
UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW


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