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000
FXUS65 KPUB 131746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

CURRENTLY...QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 50S OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A FEW DEGREES MORE OF COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WEAK ENERGY
CAUGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SPARSE CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THE VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GENERALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN JUAN
RANGE.  MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  LIGHTNING ACTIVITY PROGS INDICATED ONE OR TWO STRIKES
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS WITH
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROF
CLIPS THROUGH THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/PREFRONTAL
TROF WHICH NAM12 SETS UP ACROSS SE CO TUES AFTN. GFS KEEPS THIS
FEATURE FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY...MAIN COLD FRONT WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH WITH H7 TEMPS IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH GENERALLY 60S/70S/80S ACROSS
THE MTS AND VALLEYS. MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE DEW POINTS
TUES AFTN...AND HAVE DROPPED THEM BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INVERTED V SIGNATURE...WITH
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE MTS AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH ANY RAINFALL REMAINING
LIGHT. OTHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
AROUND 10-15% ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE PLAINS...MAINLY SE BACA
COUNTY WHERE WINDS MAY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO TUES NIGHT WITH A MARGINAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS
AND NAM12 BRING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S...WITH EVEN SOME LOWER
50S ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER...HOWEVER...ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW. GFS BRINGS A TROF THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...A FEW OF WHICH MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT SE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COULD BE LOOKING AROUND
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH AROUND 30-35 KTS OF SHEAR. FARTHER
EAST...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO OVERCOME AS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT POPS BASICALLY ALONG/WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR NOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS DAY...BUT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF MODEL DEW
POINTS LATELY...AM NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WALDO BURN SCAR THIS DAY AS SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
.25 TO .50 WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER INCREASED FLOW ALOFT THIS
DAY MAY KEEP STORMS MOVING PRETTY GOOD WHICH DECREASES THE THREAT
SOME.

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH NRN CO ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN ACROSS THE LOW LEVELS...WITH DRY LINE WAVERING EAST AND
WEST ACROSS KS. MAJORITY OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COME UNDER AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL STAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT IMPACT THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN