Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
412 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

...Increasing chances of storms across the southern mountains...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
fairly weak flow aloft across the region with yesterday`s passing
trough continuing to translate east across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region, as high pressure aloft across the Desert SW
through the Southern High Plains, is slowly moving north at this
time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating increased atmospheric
moisture in place under the upper ridge across Arizona and New
Mexico. Current radar imagery is indicating scattered thunderstorms,
which developed overnight within a band of mid level warm advection
across Baca County, on the wane at this time.

For today and tonight...Weak flow aloft continues across the state
with deeper atmospheric moisture continuing to move north across
southern Colorado under the building high. With the increasing
moisture and late summer solar heating, there will be an uptick in
convection this afternoon for areas over and near the higher terrain,
with the best coverage of storms expected over the southern
mountains. The weak flow aloft will allow for slow moving storms and
locally heavy rainfall supporting localized flash flooding across
the area today, especially if storms develop or move over area burn
scars. With the increased available moisture and slowly increasing
uvv ahead of an upper trough moving into the Great Basin late in the
period, there could a few linger showers or storms across area over
night, mainly along and west of the ContDvd. Warming aloft continues
across the area today, and this should keep convection capped across
the plains this afternoon and evening, with temperatures expected
to be around seasonal averages today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Rather diffuse upper trough over the desert sw will send weak
energy across the area Mon/Tue, while strong upper system moves
out of swrn Canada Mon into the nrn High Plains by late Tue.
Expect increased tsra chances across the higher terrain both
Mon/Tue, as low/mid level moisture slowly pushes back northward
and upper level lift increases. Plains may miss out on most precip
both days as lee surface trough keeps winds wly along the I-25
corridor with deepest moisture shunted east into KS. Still can`t
eliminate pops entirely as mid levels moisten, and will keep some
isolated pops over the plains Mon and Tue afternoons. Initial cold
front then pushes through the region Tue night, followed by a
stronger surge of cool air on Wed. Plains may end up too stable
for much convection Wed, especially with best dynamic lift under
the upper trough shifting eastward into the central plains by
afternoon. Mountains will see a continuation of tsra chance wed
as low and mid level moisture linger. After a couple warm days
Mon/Tue, temps will drop back to rather fall like readings area-
wide on Wed, with highs in the 60s/70s most lower elevations.

Still a good deal of leftover upper troughing over the western
U.S. from Thu into the weekend, with mid level moisture and daily
tsra chances lingering until at least Sun, before drier wly flow
shunts moisture eastward early next week. After another cool day
on Thu, max temps will creep back toward late Aug averages by the
weekend as heights/700 mb temps gradually recover.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at COS and PUB
with afternoon storms expected to remain over the higher terrain.

ALS may see brief MVFR conditions with an isolated tsra
this afternoon...although the probability is low.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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