Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181618
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1018 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The warm and dry forecast is on track. Gusty southwest winds to
around 30 mph will develop over the mountains and San Luis Valley
this afternoon, with lighter southeast winds over most of the
plains by late afternoon. Central mountains may still pick up a
light shower late tonight, but overall dry conditions will
persist. Winds still on track to increase in/near the mountains
tonight as southwest flow aloft increases. Those gusty winds will
spread across the plains on Wednesday with the passage of a
northern Rockies short wave.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Currently...

Mostly clear skies prevail across the region. GOES 16 low cloud imgy
was indicating only a small pocket of low clouds south of KSPD at 3
am. Quite a  bit of thin cirrus was moving across the region, with
some mtn wave clouds along the eastern mtns. Temps at this hour were
generally in the 50s across the pains with 30s and 40s in the
valleys. Breezy southerly winds were noted over the far eastern
plains.

Today and Tonight...

Modest zonal flow today with gradually transition to stronger zonal
flow during the next 24 hours. A weak wave will in the westerly flow
will move to the north of us later tonight. Dry conditions are
expected today across the entire region although we will see
increasing high clouds through the day. It will be quite warm today
with highs  in the mid 80s most locations on the plains. Winds will
be light.

For tonight, some showers will be possible in the central mtns
especially late tonight, otherwise it will be dry across the
forecast area. As the gradient tightens over the region, winds will
be picking up, mainly in the mtns above treeline. Expect winds in
the high country to gusts to 40 to 55 mph. temps tonight will range
in the U40s/L50s in th lower elevations to 30s and 40s in the
valleys with 20s in the mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Wednesday...Brisk westerly flow across the state as a minor
disturbance crosses the northern Rockies. This will bring stronger
westerly flow to the higher terrain as well as isolated to low-end
scattered showers to the central mts through the day. Winds across
the plains will be brisk and out of the west through the morning,
which will help boost temps into the 70s to lower 80s. However, by
late afternoon the winds will shift to a more north to northeast
direction as a sfc cold front drops south across eastern Colorado.

Thursday through Saturday...Both the GFS and EC models agree on
dropping an upper low pressure system down out of the Pacific NW
starting Thu, crossing Colorado early Fri, then exiting to the east
late Fri night. However, the GFS positions the upper low further
south as it crosses Colorado, closer to the NM border, as opposed to
the EC that keeps the low center over northern Colorado. Obviously,
this will make a huge difference in pcpn location and amounts, so
still a lot of question marks. The cold front that drops south
across the plains late Wed will shift the sfc winds to a more
easterly direction through the day Thu, cooling temps and increasing
the chances for convection firing along the eastern mts by the aftn.
Then the upper low crosses the state and there is a good chance for
some pcpn for most locations, with the best time window being
between Thu night and Fri night. Activity will then start to taper
off from west to east Fri night and Sat morn as the upper low pulls
off to the east, and wrap-around flow will produce brisk northerly
winds for the eastern plains, as well as cooler temps. A secondary
piece of energy will allow isolated showers to linger over the mts
through the day Sat, though the rest of the area should start drying
out. Look for high temps in the 60s to around 70F on Thu, then in
the 50s to around 60F for both Fri and Sat.

Sunday and Monday...Temporary ridging on Sun then another shortwave
passing to the north on Mon will allow for warming temps as well as
isolated pops over the mts Sun night through Mon. Expect highs in
the 60s to lower 70s on Sun, then in the 70s for most locations
on Mon. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1017 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday at all 3 TAF sites;
KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be diurnally driven. A few gusts
from the SW will occur in KALS this afternoon. Stronger
west/northwest winds will develop on Wednesday with gusts as high
as 30 knots developing toward 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch...WFO Boulder
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...Barjenbruch...WFO Boulder



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