Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
919 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Issued at 918 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Updated the forecast...mainly to make some minor adjustments to
POPs through this evening, based off latest high res guidance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Next cold front currently approaching the northern CO border will
move into southeast Colorado later this morning and afternoon,
stalling out to the south of Highway 50. Meanwhile, southern extent
of the upper trof axis will be swinging through WY and northern CO
this afternoon, with weak embedded impulses within the moisture
plume bringing some lift over southern CO this afternoon. Initially,
sfc dew points behind the front will be running in the upper
40s/lower 50s, but as flow turns more easterly this afternoon, there
will be some better moisture return late this afternoon through this
evening, particularly across the eastern counties. Amount of low
level moisture return and resultant CAPE will largely determine
storm strength today, and there are discrepancies amongst the
models, with NAM12 more moist than GFS and HRRR.  In fact, latest
06z NAM12 has slowed the southward progression of the front today,
which lifts the focus for more widespread thunderstorm activity
across southern parts of the area, northward into the Pikes Peak
region during the afternoon. Will just have to watch how this plays
out through the morning. Far enough north behind the front there
should be sufficient CIN to hamper or delay thunderstorm
development. Most likely scenario is for thunderstorm activity to be
suppressed north of the Palmer Divide, so will keep 20 pops across
northernmost portions of the plains, and scattered pops across the
majority of the mountains and southeast plains during the late
afternoon and evening, with focus for more widespread activity south
of highway 50. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail will be the main threats with all thunderstorms today as
deep layer shear is running a tad on the low slide. However, there
will be a marginal risk for severe storms along and immediately
behind the front across the southeast plains through this evening
where CAPE will be higher. Localized hail up to 1 inch in diameter
and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary threats with these more
isolated marginally severe storms.

Most thunderstorm activity should be out of the area by 06z, though
some stragglers will be possible across the far southeast plains
through 09z.  Temperatures today will run around 5 degrees cooler
than yesterday, particularly on the plains.  Overnight lows will
remain on the mild side with residual convective debris cloudiness.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday...Light zonal flow will continue across the state on Sunday,
with E-SE surface flow keeping llvl moisture in place across the
plains. This will provide for scattered pops along the higher
terrain and isolated storms for the e plains, with convection
developing by late morning the most likely scenario. With the
enhanced chances for convection and increased cloud cover, look for
max temps in the 80s for most areas, and near 90 F for the e plains.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge rebuilds
over the western US, with the ridge axis expected to station over
the Great Basin. This will keep the forecast area under a more
active NW flow aloft, resulting in diurnal isolated mt convection.
Temps are forecast to climb back up into the lower to mid 90s for
the plains, and 80s for the high valleys.

Thursday and Friday...Models continue to show another shortwave
dropping down across the northern plains and Great Lakes region late
Wed through Thu. This will produce a cool surge that will push back
into the eastern half of Colorado, providing for enhanced pcpn
chances starting Thu and persisting into the weekend. Look for max
temps both Thu and Fri to be in the 80s for the plains, and
70s to around 80 F for the high valleys. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cold front will move through southeast CO after 12z bringing
briefly gusty northerly winds this morning before winds shift out of
the east during the afternoon for both KCOS and KPUB.  The cold
front will be too shallow to affect KALS.  Thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains shortly before 18z, then spread off into
the adjacent plains after 19-20z.  CIGS will remain VFR, however
scattered thunderstorms could briefly cause MVFR VIS in heavy
rainfall through the afternoon and evening and erratic gusty winds
up to 40 kts will be possible.  Some small hail could accompany the
stronger storms, with larger hail possible east of KLHX.
Thunderstorms should diminish after 06z with VFR conditions and
lighter winds expected overnight. -KT


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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