Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
348 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

...A quick shot of precipitation over and near the higher terrain

Current water vapor imagery and upper air data is indicating
increasing northwest flow aloft across the region, as a fast moving
short wave is digging south and east across the Northern High
Plains. Water vapor imagery is also indicating another short wave
currently moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest Coast at this
time. At the surface, frontal boundary associated with the passing
Northern High Plains system is moving across north central Nebraska,
with pressure rises being noted across northwestern Nebraska and
into extreme northeastern Colorado at this time.

Today...Northwest flow aloft moderates through the late morning and
early afternoon, as the Northern High Plains wave continues to dig
south and east into the Midwest States. Weak back door cold front
continues to move across Eastern Colorado, with greatest pressure
rises expected across the Northern and Central High Plains, owning
to breezy northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph across the far southeast
plains for the morning and early afternoon hours. This will keep
elevated fire danger across the eastern plains into the afternoon,
however, critical fire weather conditions will be marginal with
humidity levels expected in the 15 to 20 percent range, and will not
go with any fire weather highlights at this time. Temperatures
behind the passing front are not all that cold, with highs in the
50s expected across the eastern plains today, and mainly in the 30s
and 40s across the higher terrain.

Tonight...Flow aloft becomes more westerly through the later
afternoon and increasing into tonight, as Pac NW short wave digs
across the Northern Great Basin and into western Colorado overnight.
Latest models in good agreement of the further west solution of the
fast moving system, which will bring snow to areas over and near the
Central Mountains this evening, with precipitation spreading south
and east to areas over and near the Eastern Mountains early Thursday
morning. This system is not all that cold, however, snow levels look
to drop to valley floors over night, with quick movement limiting
snow accumulations. Current grids have 2 to 6 inches across the
higher terrain, with 1 to 2 inches possible across the high valleys
and for areas along and west of the I-25 corridor. Timing of the
precipitation could make for a slick morning commute for those
driving Highway 24 in the Pikes Peak Region and I-25 north over the
Palmer Dvd.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

...More Active Pattern...

Finally, the weather pattern is showing signs of life with several
potential systems to impact the area over the next 10 days.  System
number one will be exiting the region to the south Thursday morning.
The upper trough axis will be shifting south of the Arkansas River
early Thursday morning with the snow shifting south with it.
Additional snowfall Thursday morning could include another 2 to 4
inches over the southeast mountains, another 1 to 3 inches on top of
Pikes Peak and mainly just an inch or less elsewhere.  Most of the
snowfall should shift south of the region by the afternoon. However,
a little more energy moving down the backside of the trough could
trigger a few additional snow showers along the mountains, producing
localized accumulations of an inch or less.  It`ll be much colder on
Thursday than we`ve been used to lately.  Afternoon highs will
actually be down close to seasonal averages for this time of year.

Upper high pressure will rebuild quickly over the region on Friday
for a brief reprieve in the weather.  Dry weather will return with
temperatures bouncing back to well above average levels.

Then, on Saturday, a second system will begin to take aim at
Colorado.  It will drop south into the central mountains during the
afternoon with snow showers beginning along the Continental Divide,
primarily from the Monarch Pass area northward.  Saturday night, the
center of the system will dig south to near the Four Corners Region,
pulling snow and cold weather south along the Rockies with it. Snow
and cold should spread south along the eastern mountains and
adjacent I-25 corridor areas, impacting much of southern Front Range
and adjacent plains.  Some snow showers will probably make it east
of the I-25 corridor, too, but most of the activity looks like it
will be concentrated right along and near the eastern mountains and
I-25 corridor.  On Sunday, the system will continue shifting south,
gradually pulling the snow south with it through the southern
mountain areas and eventually out of the area entirely by late
Sunday evening.

High pressure will rebuild again Monday through Wednesday for
another reprieve in the weather.  Dry weather and above average
temperatures will return.  However, the reprieve may not last for
long.  Medium range forecast models looking ahead to week`s end show
the potential for a yet another storm to impact the region.  While
this is a little beyond our extended forecasting range, it`s
important to start mentioning the potential now since holiday travel
plans may be adversely impacted. Stay tuned. We`ll keep you posted.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 344 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through 00Z Thu,
with generally light north to northwest winds 10 to 15 kts at COS
and PUB this morning, becoming light upslope through the afternoon.

A quick moving weather system will develop snow showers across the
higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd through the early
evening hours, with snow and IFR conditions spreading south and east
across the high mountain valleys and to areas over and near the
Eastern Mountains between 06Z-12Z Thursday. Best chances of seeing
accumulating snow and IFR conditions at the terminals will be at COS
aft 06Z Thu, with accumulations up to an inch possible by 12Z




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