Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

WILL LET ALL WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN MTS AND WRN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE PALMER DVD CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS VERY STRONG N
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...COMBINED WITH SOME
SNOW SQUALLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR KMNH AND THE
DVD. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
OVER OUR AREA. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS.
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER SRN PUEBLO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND AFFECT THE LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY AREA AND RATON MESA...WHERE A SN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH VC KCOS. EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER
ROUND HITS THE PALMER DVD EARLY ON TUE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG WINDS FOR THE PLAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MON
AFTN...WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW DOWN ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WHERE SNOW DID FALL TEMPS STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S.
FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A NUMBER OF HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND HAVE BEEN EXPLAINED IN PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
SO WILL NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THAT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN EJECT TO THE NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. WHILE DOING SO...A LOBE OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND AND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH INTO OK AND TX.

TONIGHT...SNOW FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND CONTDVD...WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
SECONDARY PUSH FOR SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE THAT
AREA RECEIVED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ALREADY THROUGH
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. LOOK
FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...ALL THE MODELS ARE POINTING TO A HIGH WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STARTING VERY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AROUND 4 AM. IT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...THE
AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH ARE FORECAST...AND TRAVEL ALONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE PALMER DVD. NOT A LOT OF
SNOW...BUT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...TRAVEL THROUGH THE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY OVER MONUMENT
HILL. THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
N EL PASO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE LATE CHRISTMAS INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BRING MORE BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BOTH HAVE
A CHANCE TO BRING PRECIP TO OTHER AREAS....INCLUDING THE PLAINS.

BY 00Z WED...6 PM TUESDAY...THE STORM THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...BUT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.
ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD END BY 00Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER NICE DAY. FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WE
SHOULD SEE A LEE TROUGH SET UP AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S AND L50S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN E FREMONT AND
W PUEBLO COUNTIES AS DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MTNS WARMS THING UP. 30S AND
40S WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS WITH 20S MTNS. IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS
THE REGION.

THU (XMAS)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD WITH 50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE PLAINS. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPS DROP RAPIDLY AND PRECIP IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT N EL PASO
COUNTY MAY GET A FEW INCHES OR MORE CHRISTMAS NITE. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT ON THE PALMER DVD XMAS NITE DUE TO THE SNOW AND
WIND.

THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING. THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER...AND
THUS THE SW MTNS MAY SEE A 6 HOUR OR SO WINDOW OF SW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW...AND EXPECT LOW END
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS XMAS
DAY INTO XMAS NITE.

FRIDAY...

HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS DAY. GFS HAS GENERALLY FLAT NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION WHILE EC HAS A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER AREA.
IF EC VERIFIES THEN WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE PRECIP OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION FRI...WHILE IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE C MTNS. I SHOULD NOTE THAT A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE DO SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...I
LEANED MORE OF THE OPERATIONAL FCST TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE.

IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NO MATTER WHAT MODEL VERIFIES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AOA FREEZING ON THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S VALLEYS/MTNS.

SATURDAY...

DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F
PLAINS...AND 20S VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
INCREASING SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME GUIDANCE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS.
LIKEWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG N -NW WINDS TUE MORNING FOR KCOS
AND KPUB...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE. COULD ALSO SEE A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A SNOW SQUALL OR TWO AT VC KCOS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KCOS FROM 11Z THROUGH 23Z AND KPUB FROM 14Z THROUGH
23Z. OVER THE PALMER DVD...VIS WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLSN.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT MON EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
074-075-087-088.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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