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000
FXUS65 KPUB 111002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CROSS THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER BY
12-13Z.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY ISOLATED -SHRA  ALONG THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND ACROSS THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THESE ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SO WILL TRY TO
CARRY SILENT POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.  BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD SWING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES.  SFC
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...AND A LITTLE DRIER OUT WEST.  GIVEN COVERAGE
IN SATELLITE/LIGHTNING AND RADAR MOSAICS FROM YESTERDAY...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
MTS...WITH ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. TONIGHT...MODELS
DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO...DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS OUT THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD DIE OFF
DIURNALLY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY...PROBABLY AROUND
11KFT...THOUGH SOME GRAUPEL...ICE PELLETS AND SLUSHY SNOW COULD DROP
TO AROUND 9.5KFT UNDER THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHER PEAKS
COULD PICK UP A LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL TODAY.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY RAINFALL ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER WITH LCLS UP AROUND 650
MB AND SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S AGAIN...THINK THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE PRETTY HIT OR MISS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS ON THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY
HAVE A FEELING WE WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MOST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER COLORADO ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS
RISE AND WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW AREAS MAY REACH INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP AND REMAIN TIED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
SHIFT IT EAST INTO KANSAS. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S FOR THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS STILL
HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT.
MOISTURE REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP INHIBIT/LIMIT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR THE
PLAINS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
PALMER AND RATON RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A VCTS COULD AFFECT
THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND PLAN TO INTRODUCE THIS TO THE 12Z
TAFS LATER THIS MORNING.  MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KPUB AND
KALS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.  CIGS/VIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR FOR KCOS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS.  -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT