Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171009
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
409 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

...Hot with Isolated Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms...

Generally hot and dry westerly flow across southern Colorado again
today.  Winds aloft will remain primarily westerly over the forecast
area through the day, although they will start to turn more
southerly during the evening.  Humidities will run just a bit higher
across the area today, by about 5 percent or so, and winds will be
less than on Saturday.  As a result, conditions will likely not
reach red flag warning levels today.  However, it will still be hot
and fuels are still dry so caution to avoid fire starts should
continue.

Mid and upper level moisture will start to increase slightly from
the south late in the day as the large upper high that has resided
to our south and west for the past several days begins to shift
eastward.  This may result in a slight uptick in thunderstorms,
especially over the mountains, during the afternoon and evening.
It will take a bit for the atmosphere to moisten, though, so primary
threats from any storms today will be lightning and gusty outflow
winds. There could be some spotty rainfall as well but the lower and
mid levels of the atmosphere will still be pretty dry, evaporating
most precipitation before it reaches the ground.

Across the plains, there is a marginal threat for severe weather
today. The primary threats will be lightning and damaging wind gusts
to 60 mph or more.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Very similar weather pattern through the extended period with just a
slight difference between the days as the upper high shifts. Look
for continued hot temps with perhaps some relief by way of the
monsoon shifting into gear. Max temps each day are expected to
climb into the 90s to low 100s for the plains, and 80s to around 90F
for the high valleys.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge is forecast
to be located over the central U.S., with an upper trough over the
Pacific NW. This places Colorado on the western side of the ridge,
and opens up a southwest tap of moisture across the 4 Corners.
Thunderstorms will be scattered to likely across the mts each aftn
and eve, with isolated activity spilling over onto the immediate
adjacent plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Models indicate that the upper high will
slide back towards the west, with the ridge axis moving into CO and
NM. This will place the state firmly under the ridge, and the
moisture plume across the 4 Corners will not have as big of a draw
into Colorado. Moisture trapped under the ridge will get recycled
into the weekend, with isolated to scattered storms over the mts and
isolated activity across the remainder of the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Hot and generally dry westerly flow across the flight area today.
Tonight and Monday, the flow aloft will turn more southerly bringing
increased amounts of moisture northward into the area.  Isolated
afternoon and evening storms are expected today with primary storm
threats of lightning and erratic outflow winds, potentially up to 60
mph or more.  On Monday, afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage
will increase with the added threats of locally heavy rain and hail
in addition to lightning and gusty winds.

The KCOS...KPUB and KALS TAF sites will all likely remain VFR today
as thunderstorm activity will most likely miss the sites.  Any of
the sites, however, could see outflow winds move through associated
with nearby convection.  On Monday, the odds for thunderstorms will
go up at the terminals, especially at KCOS, but also at KPUB and
KALS.  VCTS or thunderstorms may have to be added to forecasts
beginning around 18Z Monday.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW


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