Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 171723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...AFTERNOON/EVENING DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH...

ATMOSPHERE STARTING OUT DRIER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR PICTURES.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MONTANA PER
RUC/SATELLITE ANALYSIS...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN
TO...OR A LITTLE PAST...THE PALMER DIVIDE...BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM.
THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED A DISTURBANCE AND BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...SO TEND TO BELIEVE THE
MONTANA SYSTEM WILL ACT AS SOME SORT OF TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE LATER TODAY.  THEN...THIS EVENING...WHATEVER
CONVECTION GETS GOING SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE MODELS SEEM TO PEG TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES THE
HARDEST...FROM ABOUT PIKES PEAK EASTWARD ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
THIS WOULD NOT BE GOOD FOR THE WALDO OR BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS...OF
COURSE...SO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MONITORING THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THOSE AREAS.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
BURN SCARS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON TAP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST WINDOW
FOR PCPN FOR THE CWA FROM TUE THROUGH THU. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AS COMPARED TO THE EC...BUT BOTH TEND TO
AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH THE OVERALL H5 PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
COLORADO...BUT A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS EASTERN CO. THE NAM
INDICATES FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT AROUND
18Z...WHICH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE E PLAINS AND
MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND WELL INTO THE EVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S FOR THE E PLAINS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS AND LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE WEST
COAST STARTING LATE MON...AND FOR TUE THROUGH THU THE RIDGE THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE STATE EDGES TO THE EAST. THIS OPENS UP THE
MOISTURE TAP FOR CO...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER SHOT AT SOME PCPN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDSECTION OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...AROUND 80 F FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND A DAILY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR ALL AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS HINT AT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PCPN CHANCES FALLING
BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
JUST YET AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO CHANGE.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. VCTS IS FORECAST AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR VCTS AT KALS ARE TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.