Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 122326
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SERN CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS HAD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN LOCATIONS NR THE ERN MTNS. THE NAM HAS WAY
OVERDONE THE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS FOR TODAY...WITH THE HRRR
BEING MORE REASONABLE.   FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE NAM
PRINTS OUT SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS. THE HRRR IS DRY FOR
THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FOR
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE SILENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE STILL SHOWING A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES YET. BOTH MODELS
THEN SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD REFORMING OVR PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...THE COLDEST AREAS
LOOK TO BE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY...EL PASO AND CROWLEY
COUNTIES.  LOWS IN THESE LOCATIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES JUST
IN CASE THERE ARE POCKETS OF FROST.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP IN STORE.  HIGHS ON SAT OVR
THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVR
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE NAM AGAIN PRINTS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE
SRN CO MTNS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON...SO WL LEAVE SOME
ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SW MTNS AND THE SANGRES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SMALL
ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FLAT ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNDOWN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION...WITH IT CLEARING SOUTH
INTO NEW MEXICO BY 12Z...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER. FEEL THAT A BIT FASTER SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY PLAY OUT AND
FOLLOWED THE NAM FRONTAL PROGRESSION. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN EASTERLY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LIGHT
RAIN FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT RAIN COMING TO AN END FOR THE
PLAINS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE PLAINS
LIKELY ONLY SEEING 60S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO WARM UP WITH 80S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

BY FRIDAY MODELS ARE BRINGING A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM TROPICAL
STORM ODILE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY
FRIDAY. IF THIS DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE DOES MATERIALIZE...THERE
WILL BE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 522 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS KCOS AND KPUB SOCKED IN FOR TONIGHT AND
HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS ACCORDINGLY. GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KCOS...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ084>086-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.