Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 170646
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCOS...KALS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT
NOONTIME TOMORROW. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRING PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS TO THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE
ALL SITES GOING AT LEAST MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND THIS FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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