Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161435
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
735 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. SNOW IS JUST ABOUT OVER. ALSO
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

ALLOWED NORTHERN PARTS OF WINTER STORM AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SNOWFALL WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING THEN JUST PLAIN COLD...

BACK EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS JUST REACHING PUEBLO AT THIS
TIME.  AREA OF SNOWFALL HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...WITH INTENSITIES GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...WITH SNOWFALL PRETTY MUCH MOVING SOUTH OF
COLORADO ENTIRELY AFTER 8 AM.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
THE EASTERN SAN JUANS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINGS WILL BE OVER.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING.

THEN THE CHALLENGE BECOMES THE TEMPERATURES.  FRESH ARCTIC AIR AND
FRESH SNOW COVER MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF WAY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  USING THE BEST MODEL BLEND I COULD FIND AND
TWEAKING THINGS HERE AND THERE...CAME UP WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
20S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY 20S AND TEENS...WITH
ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.  ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND
CHILLS TO OCCASIONALLY HIT AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AROUND 20 BELOW AT TIMES OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
APPROPRIATE ATTIRE SHOULD BE WORN.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE.  STILL DEALING
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND ARCTIC AIR.  THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...THE AIR MASS VERY DRY
AND THE WINDS LIGHT.  SHOULD BE A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH MEANS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY NOT CATCH THE
OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL TOO WELL.  IT ALSO MEANS THE FORECASTER
MAY NOT DO TOO WELL.  ANYWAY...PUT TOGETHER THE BEST GUIDANCE BLEND
I COULD AND THEN TWEAKED HERE AND THERE.  CAME UP WITH GENERALLY 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE PLAINS.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...NOT SO DEEP IN THE ARCTIC AIR...GENERALLY CAME UP WITH 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE...WITH THE BELOW ZERO READINGS FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
AND THE ABOVE ZERO READINGS FAVORING THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY.  ONCE AGAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH ENOUGH BREEZE AT TIMES FOR VALUES TO HIT NEAR 15 BELOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 25 BELOW AT TIMES
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE
QUIET...BUT THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE ON MONDAY SEEMS A
BIT HIGH...WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND MIXING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH AROUND 30 DEGREES. ON TUESDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES MUCH HIGHER...AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY
MAKE SENSE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS THE PLAINS. HOW FAR EAST THAT WILL OCCUR IS
THE ISSUE. COMBINED WITH THE RECENT SNOW COVER...HAVE UNDERCUT
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT...IN SOME CASES BY MORE THAN
10 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING MINOR WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...CAUSING SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES ON ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...THE SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING...AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -TM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

STORM WILL DROP SOUTH AND EASTWARD OUT OF FLIGHT AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE OVER BY 15Z...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREAS...WHERE SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS... THROUGH
18Z.  AS SNOWFALL ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 15Z-18Z...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN MOST AREAS.  GUIDANCE HAS THIS
OCCURRING AT KCOS AROUND 15Z AND AT KPUB SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THIS
SOUNDS GOOD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  KALS HAS ALREADY STOPPED
SNOWING AND RETURNED TO VFR AT THE ASOS...ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD STILL BE IN THE VICINITY BASED ON
RECENT SNOWFALL THERE.  AFTER 18Z TODAY...SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR
ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



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