Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 161346
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS PER SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...THINNING MONSOON PLUME REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY...

MONSOON MOISTURE...WHILE GRADUALLY THINNING...STILL REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.  MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...IT IS HARD TO FIND A
PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.  BUT...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...THE MOUNTAINS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN DO JUST FINE ON
THEIR OWN SOMETIMES.  SO...EXPECTING TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOP TODAY.  THE FIRST STORMS AND STRIKES OF THE DAY SHOULD
INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON...WITH MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM BEFORE STARTING
TO FIRE UP OVER THE PLAINS.

BASED ON DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...JUST STARTING TO CROSS OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...SUSPECT THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ON THEIR WAY
DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL
BE LOWER TODAY IN MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY.  FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE NAM SHOWING .93 INCHES AT 12 AM
THIS MORNING FOR COLORADO SPRINGS...DROPPING TO A LOW OF .57 INCHES
AT 9 AM...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN TO .86 INCHES BY 6 PM.  REGARDLESS
OF THE REBOUND...HOWEVER...IT NEVER GETS AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY...WHEN
MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED 1 INCH OF WATER OVER COLORADO SPRINGS.

SO...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO FIRE...AND EVEN ENOUGH FOR
SOME LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE FLOOD PRONE SPOTS
LIKE BURNS CARS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  NO REAL TRIGGER THAT CAN
BE IDENTIFIED...BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS TODAY. LW

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH ENSEMBLES PROVIDING SUPPORT OF THE
ECMWF IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS COLORADO AND THE DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE NORTH OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REMAIN DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...FORCING UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING...SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOISTURE MAY BE SOME WHAT LACKING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS AND OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY IN HOW THEY WANT TO
HANDLE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH FORCES THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LOW TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WHILE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OUT OVER THE PACIFIC.

BOTH SOLUTIONS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST US HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH FORCING...WITH THE GFS HAVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST OVER
COLORADO...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD LEAVE THINGS UP TO DIURNALLY AND
TERRAIN INDUCED INSTABILITY. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE PRINTING OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE ECMWF FOCUSED ON THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE GFS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORM MOVEMENTS OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH STORM
INITIATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON...INCREASING
THROUGH 1 PM...AND THEN STARTING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.  LESS MOISTURE
IN THE AIR TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY
INTENSE CELLS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH STORMS. KCOS...WITH
ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINS...HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A
STORM TODAY...LIKELY AFTER 2 PM.  KALS AND KPUB HAVE LESS OF A
CHANCE...BUT NOT ZERO CHANCE.  WILL LIKELY CARRY VCTS AT KCOS
STARTING 20Z.  WILL PROBABLY KEEP OUT OF KPUB AND KALS TAFS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PENDING STORM EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW


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