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000
FXUS65 KPUB 110553
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION...WE HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER ON ISSUING A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY AND ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...FINE FUELS HAVE LIKELY
DRIED OUT AND WILL LIKELY CARRY FIRE. ALSO...DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING HAVE LED TO FIRE STARTS IN HEAVY TIMBER. IF THESE
FIRES ARE NOT SPOTTED THIS EVENING...OR NOT PUT OUT...THEY MAY GET
OUT OF CONTROL AND GROW RAPIDLY TOMORROW. METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREME IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES
ARE NOT RECOMMENDED AND EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED ACROSS ALL OF
THE REGION.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CURRENTLY SEEING ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS...THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE TO BACA
COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. LOWERED HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE PLAINS FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LIKELY
GET THE AREA OFF TO A QUICKER START FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

...HOT AGAIN TOMORROW WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS...

CURRENTLY...

TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE QUITE HOT WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS IN THE
100+ F CATEGORY. KCOS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH AND KPUB HAS TIED IT SO
FAR. KALS IS STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT AS OF 2 PM.

A FEW LIGHT HIGH BASED TSRA WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE HIGHER TRRN.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE LARGE T/TD SPREADS...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50+ MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HI RES SIMULATIONS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS...HOWEVER
THE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT SEEING THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ONGOING IN
THE MTNS ATTM.

TONIGHT WILL BE WARM. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID MTN AREAS AND THE PLAINS ADJ TO
THE MTNS. SOME HIGHER MIN RH AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TONIGHT. QUITE A FEW AREAS OVER THE PLAINS WILL ONLY HAVE MIN TEMPS
IN THE 65-70F RANGE.

TUESDAY...

FIRE WX IS MAIN CONCERN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE
ROCKY MTN FIRE PREDICTION SERVICES FUEL PAGE...FUELS ON MOST OF THE
PLAINS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH...AND THIS IS WHY
MOST OF THE PLAINS IS NOT IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION ON THE PLAINS THAT IS IN THE RED FLAG WARNING IS
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS ARE IN A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW BEGINNING AT 9 AM AND LASTING THROUGH 9
PM.

WIND GUST ON THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WHILE THE
MTNS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE N SANGRES...WET MTN
VALLEY AND WET MTNS MAY SEE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE 45 MPH RANGE.

ANY FIRES THAT GET GOING WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD AND EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR IS NEAR CERTAIN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HOT. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE TODAYS READING. I
EXPECT KLAA AND KLHX WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE WITH 100-105
FOR KPUB. AOA 100F READINGS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS
BELOW 6000 FT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS AS WELL
AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES(INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS) MAY BE
INCREASING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AND IS THEN PROJECTED TO BECOME
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN REDEVELOPS OVER FAR WEST TEXAS/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BASICALLY DRY NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST SURGE
IMPACTING AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  IF REALIZED...THIS MOIST SURGE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT
IT IS STILL WAY TO EARLY TO DETERMINE. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE LONGER TERM...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT EXPERIENCING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME
10F TO 15F ABOVE MID-JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM
SHOULD BE REALIZED THURSDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES NOTED BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. BOTH KALS AND KPUB
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH THE STRONG WINDS
PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO FOR TUESDAY. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW 10
PERCENT. FUELS ARE CRITICAL...OR NEAR CRITICAL IN ALL AREAS AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEEM THE WHOLE AREA CRITICAL BY
TUESDAY LATE MORNING. SHOULD FIRES START...RAPID GROWTH IS
EXPECTED. LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS HAS LED TO A FEW
STARTS THIS EVENING...AND IF THEY ARE NOT SPOTTED OR PUT OUT THIS
EVENING...THEY MAY SMOLDER OVERNIGHT...AND FLARE UP AND GROW
RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT INCLUDE BURNING SUCH AS GRILLING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ220>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER...MOZLEY