Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...RAIN WINDING DOWN...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING DRIER AIR WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
THIS TIME. THIS...ALONG WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS HAS LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTS. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...AND HAVE CANCELED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG AND OR LIGHT DRIZZLE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS
SLOWLY ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS WITH MODEST CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR OF 35-45KTS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENT PLUS WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL KEEP
SOME -SHRA/-TSRA GOING WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT
AS UPWARD MOTION PERSISTS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE
THU...WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THU/THU NIGHT. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION
THU AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS
ROLLING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. FRI THEN LOOKS
DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...PLUS SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING AS
WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SAT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING MORE ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH WHILE GFS SHOWS FAIRLY HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY FAR WEST ON SAT...AS LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
MERIDIONAL...SUGGESTING ENHANCED TSRA CHANCES SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION SAT...AS LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUN...ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THAN THE
GFS...THOUGH BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST ENOUGH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE BY
SUN EVENING FOR -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHILE SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD THE DRIER GFS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH TOUGH TO ELIMINATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA FROM THE
FORECAST MOST AREAS BOTH MON/TUE. MAX TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM FROM
THU INTO SAT...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY SUN AS TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. SOME GRADUAL WARMING THEN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW LATE MAY AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

GENERAL W-SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO. EXTENSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND LINGERING DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE E
PLAINS...WILL PRODUCE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS FOR SOME OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

KCOS...AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADULLY LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MORE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EVE.

KPUB...AREAS OF FOG TO BUILD IN PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADULLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
MORE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EVE.

KALS...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...THOUGH THERE IS
VCFG IN THE TAF BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE


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