Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

000
FXUS65 KPUB 090540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT TUE APR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE APR 8 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS AND
BLENDED TO REST OF FORECAST. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT TUE APR 8 2014

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS AND
BLENDED. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE APR 8 2014

...WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC
NORTHWEST COAST AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PLEASANT SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 30S AT
THE PEAKS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS GREAT BASIN RIDGE
IS FLATTENED BY PAC NW WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
MILD SIDE TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LEE TROUGHING
PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND I-25 CORRIDOR LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 222...227...228...229 AND 230. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE
FURTHER EAST...THE WINDS LOOK TO BE A TAD LIGHTER AND WILL KEEP THE
FAR SE PLAINS OUT OF WARNING FOR NOW. WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT (+4C TO +8C AT H7) AND ONLY SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL FEEL
MORE SUMMERLIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S
AT THE PEAKS. CURRENT RECORDS FOR APRIL 9TH ARE 86F AT PUB...80F AT
COS AND 72F AT ALS...ALL SET IN 1977 AND LOOK SAFE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE APR 8 2014

...INCLEMENT WEATHER LATTER PART OF WEEKEND...

DURING THIS FCST TIME PERIOD...THE WX ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST
ACTIVE. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NW. GIVEN THE PROJECTED 700 MB FLOW...AREAS
WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP WILL BE THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE AND
AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. AT THIS TIME OTHER AREAS WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NITE. IT COULD
BE RATHER WINDY DURING THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PD.

IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE C MTNS WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE PLAINS GENERALLY N OF US-
50. MAX TEMPS FROM WED-SAT WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S PLAINS...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MTNS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE OF SUNDAYS SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT...AND THE TROUGH DROPPING SE SHOULD PHASE A
BIT BETTER WITH THE 1ST WAVE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT COULD OCCUR. I SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT CURRENT MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND THESE VALUES MAY NEED
TO BE COOLED DOWN A BIT IN LATER FCST PRODUCTS. SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS (HI-LITE CRITERIA) WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE E SLOPES OF THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. THIS WX SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO LOTS OF
THINGS COULD CHANGE. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE APR 8 2014

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLIGHT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FLIGHT AREA. EXPECT
TURBULENT FLOW OVER ROUGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ222-
227>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.