Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 181003
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY...A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NE CO...WITH NE
WINDS SPREADING SWD TOWARDS THE NM BORDER. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS PERSIST
OVER THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WETS
AND RAMPARTS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

NEXT BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CA AND WILL
TRACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD PRECIP SHIELD IN AN
AREA OF STRONG QG ASCENT E OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN MTS BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EWD ON THROUGH THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODT TO HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND THEN THE ERN PLAINS. HEAVE INCREASED POPS THIS EVE
AND OVERNIGHT TO NR CATEGORICAL FOR THESE AREAS. WIDESPREAD QPF OF
.5 TO 1 INCH OR MORE WILL BE LIKELY BY MORNING.

INITIAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE
IN SPOTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
HEAVIEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE OVERNIGHT WHEN EMBEDDED CELLS SHOULD NOT
BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE...SO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED. MAIN CAVEAT WOULD BE IF CELLS TRAIN FROM N TO S OVER A
SMALLER AREA. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE BURN
SCARS...PARTICULARLY SPANISH PEAKS...AND WALD CANYON AREAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE QPF
MAXES...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY...AND WITH INCREASING S-SW FLOW
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEY MAY ACTUALLY RISE RATHER THAN FALL
WITH TIME. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS BELOW 10000
FEET...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE HEAVIER PRECIP DRIVE DOWN SNOW LEVELS
LOCALLY. SINCE MUCH OF THE TELLER COUNTY AND NRN FREMONT ZONES THAT
WERE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH ARE BELOW 10000 FEET...WILL CANCEL
THOSE PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
THESE AREAS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW...BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WARNING ATTM. ON THE OTHER HAND...PIKES PEAK
AND THE OTHER MTN ZONES ABOVE 11000 FEET COULD SEE BIG SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY A FOOT OR MORE BY TUE MORNING. SO...HAVE
CONVERTED THESE ZONES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY ACTIVE AND DYNAMIC DAY OF WX AHEAD...SO PLEASE PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW (TUESDAY)...

TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF QUITE
ACTIVE. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AS TOMORROW MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH THE
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE (HAIL) CONVECTION EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED SEVERE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER BY
AFTERNOON AS 50+ DWPTS ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME THE BEST THREAT OF SFC BASED
ROTATING CONVECTION WILL BE OVER E LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND BACA
COUNTY....WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAY SEE ELEVATED
ROTATING CONVECTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IF SFC BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THEN WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TORNADO ACTIVITY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY LOW
LCLS. ATTM...SPC HAS PARTS OF THE SE PLAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
TUESDAY.

HPC HAS ALL OF SE COLO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
AND POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS.
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DECREASING
LATER IN THE MORNING.

FOR WED AND THU...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MARGINAL SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE WILL ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...

ANOTHER PACIFIC WX SYSTEM COMING IN ON THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE...ALBEIT SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE OF A DRYSLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
THAN OTHERS. PATTERN WITH THESE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN WETTER THAN WHAT
THE GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED...SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ACTIVE WX. A LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM THIS 2ND SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI AND KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH THU
NIGHT FOR THE AREA. WX FRIDAY THROUGH SAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH WE GET DRY-SLOTTED. IF WE DO GET THE DRY AIR IN THEN THE PRECIP
WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE (AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SAT) WHILE
IF WE CAN KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PRECIP COULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE MORE HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY THE WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH COOLER NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE REGION. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND KCOS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z
TODAY...AND EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR
FOR THESE TAF SITES AND THE ERN CO PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

KALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES CO.

FZG LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN AFFECT FOR THE
MTS GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET...AND HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT TUESDAY
FOR COZ058-060-063-073-075-080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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