Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

000
FXUS65 KPUB 231718
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...CWFA EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...LOCALLY GUSTY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS
AND CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERN TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAVERSES
INTO WYOMING.

SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY
OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WILL MAINTAIN EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR CROWLEY...BENT...OTERO...LAS
ANIMAS AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MANY EASTERN
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S.

FINALLY...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER MANY LOCATIONS WITH LOCALIZED
GRADIENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

ON SUN AN UPR LEVEL LOW WL MOVE FROM ERN WY THRU SOUTHERN
SD...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING...DRY WESTERLY
FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.  A WEAK SFC FRONT WL MOVE
THRU SERN CO SUN NIGHT...BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.

MON AN UPR LEVEL LOW WL MOVE INTO NV. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS MON THAT ARE SIMILAR TO
THOSE ON SUN.  IN THE AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME ISOLD
TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE CONTDVD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING TO THE
ERN MTNS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THE NAM KEEPS THE
SERN PLAINS DRY MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SPREADING TO THE ERN PLAINS IN THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON TUE...THAT UPR LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CO.  THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACRS THE
STATE THAN THE GFS.  FOR TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PCPN CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH THE SERN PLAINS BEING DRY.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS ON TUE LOOK TO BE BREEZY AND IF IT IS DRY ACRS THE
SERN PLAINS...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVR
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.  BY 06Z WED THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVR
THE EXTREME SWRN CORNER OF KS...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT ALONG THE ERN
PUEBLO COUNTY BORDER.  BOTH MODELS THEN LIFT THE UPR LOW
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WED MORNING.  THE ECMWF POSITION SHOWS PCPN ACRS
THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS POSITION KEEPS
MOST OF THE PCPN FROM HIGHWAY 50 AND NORTHWARD. FOR NOW WL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH WL BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING FORECAST
AREAS.

AS THIS UPR LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WED
ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE PCPN THRU THE DAY. THU
AN NEW UPR LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA/SRN NV.  IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MTN AREAS MAY SEE PCPN THU AFTERNOON...WITH DRY WX
ACRS THE SERN CO PLAINS. THE UPR LOW IS THEN FORECAST O MOE INTO SRN
UT BY FRI MORNING.  MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS FOR FRI...WHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW
OVR UT MOVES OVR THE CO MTN AREAS.  THERE AGAIN ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE UPR LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. AS A RESULT THE GFS HAS GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY WX ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR FOR FRI WITH A BIT OF A DRYLINE OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR AT ALL 3 TAF
LOCATIONS...KCOS...KPUB...KALS...THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ228-230>233-
235.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.