Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 241338
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
738 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE. LOADED LATEST
OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

...MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS TODAY...

LOW GRADE MONSOON TODAY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.  UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER
THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY.  THERE IS ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR MOUNTAIN STORMS.  OTHERWISE...WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL
CAP MOST CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS
TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. COULD ALSO
BE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINER OUT THERE.  MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN TODAY...GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST CASES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER COLORADO. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ABOVE AVERAGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. GFS GRADUALLY BRINGS THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING MCS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GRIDS
HAVE HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARDS THE EAST. OVER
THE PLAINS...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER KANSAS FROM MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD LOWER THE POPS AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A
TROUGH WITH THIS POOL OF MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR STORMS ON THE PLAINS.
NUDGED UP POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SINCE TROUGH WILL PASS THESE
LOCATIONS LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...MOSTLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN WARM
FOR A WARM WEEKEND.  --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WITH LIMITED
MONSOON MOISTURE OVER COLORADO.  ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OTHERWISE...WARM
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAP CONVECTION OVER FLIGHT AREA.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SPOTTY
HEAVY RAIN.  MOST CONVECTION OVER THE FLIGHT AREA SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER.  GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24
HOURS.  HOWEVER...LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...THUNDERSTORM THREAT TOO LOW
TO PUT IN FORECASTS.  VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW


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