Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161739
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...Showers and Isolated Storms this Afternoon and Tonight...

Upper trough of low pressure visible in satellite imagery spinning
over southern Arizona this morning will pass south of the 4 corners
region this evening and swing into western Kansas by Wednesday
morning.  The trough is not real strong but it does contain some
limited moisture and instability, enough to spread a few showers and
thunderstorms east across the forecast area, beginning over the
mountains in the afternoon.  The first storms of the day should
develop over the mountains either very late this morning or during
the first part of the afternoon.  As the upper trough moves eastward
into northwest New Mexico during the late afternoon, a few storms
should also develop eastward across the plains into the evening.
Overnight, the focus for showers and storms will shift eastward
across the plains, favoring areas east of the I-25 corridor after
midnight.  The primary risks from storms today will be lightning and
wind gusts to around 50 mph as CAPES will be pretty low at generally
only a few hundred j/kg or less.  The best coverage of showers and
storms may come across the plains overnight as models are showing
more organization on the back side of the trough as it moves through
the plains.  Also, snow levels will initially be above 9500 feet
today but will likely fall to around 8500 feet or so this evening.
This means places like Leadville could see snow showers today and
places like Woodland Park could see some snow showers this evening.
Any accumulations, though, should be spotty, light and confined
mainly to the cooler surfaces such as grass.

As for the dry line today, it looks like it should stay mainly east
of Colorado in Kansas today.  It appears that winds will keep enough
westerly component to keep the good moisture gradient out of our
area.  However, some of the high resolution models have been showing
a cell or cells initiating over Kiowa and possibly northern Prowers
County in the late afternoon.  Will have to watch for this
possibility.  If storms do fire, primary risks would be 1 inch
diameter hail, wind gusts to 60 mph, locally heavy rain and
lightning.

Another thing to watch for is some low cloud development across the
far eastern plains this morning. Models are hinting at this and
there is some decent northward progression of low clouds evident in
the experimental GOES-16 Fog [3.9-11.2] imagery over the Texas
Panhandle at this time. Not sure if any of this will make it into
eastern Colorado but it might, primarily after 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

Meteorological concern during the longer term continues to be the
amount of impact that two storm systems will provide to the
forecast district from later Wednesday into Friday night and then
again from later Sunday into early next week with pops,
qpf/potential higher terrain snow amounts, temperatures,
thunderstorm potential and gusty winds at times needing to be
determined.

Recent PV analysis, forecast model soundings and longer term
computer simulations still suggest that initial closed upper low
entering northern Utah Wednesday moves into west-central Colorado
by 18Z Thursday and then slowly rotates across Colorado into
Friday before shifting east of the forecast district Saturday. In
addition, moist northerly to easterly surface surges(driven by
1029MB surface high situated over northeastern North Dakota)
impacts eastern portions of the forecast district from Wednesday
night into Friday.

At this juncture, this system still has the potential to produce
locally heavy precipitation, including higher terrain accumulating
snow(with even some snow possibly mixing down to lower elevations
as projected 700 MB temperatures dip to between -4C and -8C over
the Interstate 25 corridor by Thursday night/Friday morning),
much cooler temperatures as well as gusty winds at times.

The highest potential for heavier precipitation/thunderstorms at
times/snow and gusty winds over the forecast district with this
system should be realized from later Wednesday into Friday night.
WFO Pueblo will closely monitor the strength and track of this
potential incoming system closely and issue Winter Weather
Highlights/etc. as needed.

Then a brief respite in the active meteorological conditions
should be noted from Saturday into early Sunday as southern
Colorado is projected to be between storm systems.

Focus then shifts to next warmer storm system(as noted by 700 MB
temperatures remaining well above 0C into Monday night)
developing over northern Utah by later Sunday which shifts into
Colorado on Monday bringing another round of unsettled
meteorological conditions to the forecast district, primarily from
later Sunday into at least Monday night.

At this time, the highest potential for gusty gradient winds over
the forecast district during the longer term should be experienced
into Wednesday night, while warmest temperatures are anticipated
Wednesday and then again from Sunday into next Monday. Coolest
temperatures during the longer term are expected from Thursday
into Saturday morning as evidenced by maximum temperatures
struggling to get out of the 40s over many eastern sections
during this time-frame. In addition, minimum temperatures
challenging the freezing mark will be possible over many
Interstate 25 corridor locations both Friday and Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites thru
the next 24 hrs. Gusty winds can be expected into the evening
hours at KALS, KCOS and KPUB. There will be the possibility of
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the forecast sites this afternoon
and evening, with KPUB and KCOS having a better chance than KALS.
On Wed, gusty westerly winds are expected to develop in the
morning hours at KALS, KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



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