Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 172155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...Critical Fire Weather conditions continuing into this evening...

Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will continue
across the district this evening until winds decouple and/or the
arrival of a cold front brings slightly higher humidity levels into
eastern portions of the area. The cold front is evident in latest
radar loops across northeast El Paso county extending eastward
across northern Kiowa county. HRRR seems to be a little slow with
its progression westward and southward.  Front should move through
most of the southeast plains by 04z. This will shift winds out of
the northeast to east across the plains with the front banking up
along the east slopes of the southeast mountains overnight.

Meanwhile...winds across the mountains have already started to
decrease below high wind criteria as the mountain wave has broken
down. Its will remain windy through 6 PM due to deep mixing though
think the gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range will stay confined to the
highest peaks. Gusts in the 40 to 50 mph will continue for the lower
eastern slope regions until 6 PM...but should gradually decrease
after that. Have taken down the high wind warning as damaging wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph are no longer expected. Will leave the Red
Flag warning up until 9 PM...though suspect that eastern portions of
the area may be able to be cancelled earlier as humidities come up
behind the front.

For tomorrow...temperatures will be quite a bit cooler across the
area...with readings down around climatological normals.  Winds
across the southeast plains and lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains will be lighter tomorrow...though gusty winds
will likely resurface across the mountains and interior valleys once
again.  However with the cooler temperatures expected...humidity
levels should stay above the 15 percent critical threshold for Fire
Weather concerns.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...Very dry conditions continue...

Extended forecast looks pretty quiet. Cooler conditions through mid
week, followed by gradual warming as high pressure builds strongly
over the W US.

Any chance of precip for our area will come Tue night, as a trough
moves through N CO. Precip will be confined to Mts of Lake and
Chaffee County. Could see an inch or so over the Dvd by Wed morning
before things rapidly clear out behind the system Wed morning.
Cannot rule out some snowflakes over the Pikes Peak region, but
probability is low so will keep POPs silent outside the Central Mts.
Main impact will be continued cooling, with highs Wed closer to
average, or in the 60s over the Plains and 50s high valleys.

Beyond Wed, a broad ridge will strengthen and build from the west,
resulting in decreasing winds and increasing temps across our
area. Could see highs once again around 80 degrees for the Plains
by the weekend, and this warm spell will persist through Monday.
next chance of any precip for our area will not come until the day 8-
10 period, as a new W Coast trough begins to move into the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Gusty southwest winds will continue at the terminals through the
evening...with KPUB in a lull region due to its position in the wake
of the Wet mountains and possibly due to the smoke plume overhead.
As the upper flow shifts a bit more northwesterly...think winds will
finally increase at KPUB before the arrival of the front...which
should push into the KCOS area around 23z...and into the KPUB area
around 00Z. This will shift winds out of the ENE at 15-25kts.
Meanwhile...KALS will stay gusty from the southwest until 02z when
winds are anticipated to decouple. Light easterly to southeast winds
will persist for KPUB and KCOS overnight.  There is the potential
for a VFR layer around 050 to develop along the east slopes of the
southeast mountains Tuesday morning.  Confidence is low as to how
widespread this will be so have a SCT layer in for KCOS for now.
Winds will increase out of the south to southeast at around 10-15
kts for both KCOS and KPUB Tuesday afternoon.  Winds at KALS will
increase by late morning with gusts to around 30 kts possible in the
afternoon. -KT


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-



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