Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182110
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Currently...

Unseasonably warm temperatures were occurring over the region this
afternoon as temps at 2 pm were in the U70s/L80s across most of the
plains. Winds were light over the region except along the CO/KS
state line where winds were in  the 15 to 25 mph range. We have tied
the record for the date at ALS and were a few degrees away at PUB
and COS.

Rest of today into tonight...

Temps at KCOS and KPUB have a good chance of reaching or possibly
exceeding the record highs for the data. If KPUB should reach 86 it
would break the record for the data and would tie for warmest for
the month.

For tonight, with the ridge overhead expect little in the way of
clouds tonight with unseasonably warm temps. Lows will only get into
the 40s and 50s on the plains and 20s and 30s across the higher
terrain.

Tomorrow...

Record warm temps will be possible (likely?) tomorrow across the
region as the ridge moves to the east and the westerly low level
gradient picks up a bit over the area. This downslope flow will
likely "get us over the top" with respect for either tie-ing or
breaking the max temps records. However, it appears that winds may
not get strong enough for widespread red flag conditions...and for
this region have removed parts of the plains from the Fire Weather
Watch. No guidance indicates winds will reach criteria in El Paso
county. The only areas which will could see winds reaching Red Flag
criteria will occur in the gap flow region, i.e, greater Canon
City/N Pueblo county region and down along the Walsenburg region.
The only region which I kept the Fire Weather watch in for
Fremont/Pueblo and Huerfano counties. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Sunday night and Monday...An upper-level ridge remains intact,
keeping temperatures above average for this time of year with lows
Monday morning ranging the upper 30s to mid-40s for the plains
and below freezing for the mountains and high valleys. Winds pick
up in strength Monday afternoon, especially west of the I-25
corridor. The combination of strong winds and low relative
humidity values flag some fire weather concerns for the southern
I-25 corridor. An upper-level disturbance begins to propagate over
the region later in the afternoon, bringing precipitation over
the Continental Divide and increasing cloud cover for the western
portion of the southeastern Plains. Skelly

Monday night through Wednesday...A trough of low pressure over the
West Coast, and a ridge axis located just to the east of Colorado,
will allow southwest flow aloft to continue across the 4 Corners
region and across Colorado. Look for isolated to low-end scattered
pops across the higher terrain, and max temps both Tue and Wed in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Thursday through Saturday...Long range models start to diverge
greatly beginning Thu. The GFS continues with an open wave crossing
the state on Thu, temporary ridging on Fri, then another open wave
approaching for Sat. The EC, however, has introduced another
solution which is a new development. The EC sweeps a closed low
across the 4 Corners and northern New Mexico on Thu, reaching the TX
and OK panhandles Fri morning. If this solution is closer to the
truth, then the forecast area may be on the verge of experiencing a
dose of winter weather which will send a shock to the system. Since
this is the first run and there is model disagreement, decided to
side with the extended procedure output and continue to monitor.
Current forecast grids have high temps in the 60s and 70s on Thu,
cooling into the 50s and 60s for Fri and Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will be light tonight. Weak lee trough will develop tomorrow
and this will cause west to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots at
KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ222-228-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SKELLY/MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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