Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261012
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...

CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING THOUGH NRN NM
AND INTO SE CO THIS MORNING. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN NM AND AZ...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER OUR AREA
LATER TODAY. ALSO...LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL
INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. WILL SEE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR WX
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...MAINLY FOR HAIL AND WINDS. LATEST HRRR HAS
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN MTS BY LATE
MORNING...MOVING EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 20-21Z...THEN INTO
KS BY EARLY EVE. OTHER MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THE
COMMON THEME IS INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY EARLY
EVENING. H7 TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...SO POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NR 100 IS THERE...BUT EARLIER TIMING
OF CONVECTION MAY PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE STORMS ON THE WANE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE KS BORDER BY LATE EVENING...WHILE RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE WRN ZONES. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND/OR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S OVR THE PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY...

HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS DAY. SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH G30 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION. WE MAY START APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ON THIS DAY. EXPECT HI TEMPS THIS DAY WILL RANGE IN
THE U90S/L100S PLAINS...80S VALLEYS.

TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL COOL THE TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT
IT WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST POPS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE. THIS 2ND DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE A
STRONGER FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TUE NITE.

WEDNESDAY...

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY THIS DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
AOA 80F PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S MTNS AND ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. THE DAY WILL LIKELY START OFF CLOUDY AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

OVERALL DRY WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER...OR JUST TO THE WEST OF...THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION IN WEAK WNW TO NW FLOW AT
MID LVLS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL START DRYING OUT AS THE MONSOON
TAP WILL BE BLOCKED BY THIS MID LVL FLOW PATTERN. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE INCREASED TS ACTIVITY TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WILL BE FROM AROUND 19Z-23Z. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE E...NR THE KS BORDER. TS
ACTIVITY THIS EVE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CIGS AT KCOS AND KPUB IN
THE 03Z TO 12Z TIME PERIOD TONIGHT. WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN
TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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