Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 150532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1132 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Noticeable downturn in convection this afternoon as an upper level
ridge continues to amplify aloft. However, the spin associated
with the remnant area of low pressure can still clearly be seen on
satellite imagery this afternoon. This low has provided enough
lift and additional moisture to fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the central and southern Colorado mountains. As
has been the trend the past several days, storms are still
relatively slow moving with heavy rain and frequent lightning
being the primary threats.

Elsewhere, the effects from the building ridge have already been
felt with temperatures warming several degrees and relative
humidities lowering quite a bit compared to this time yesterday.
This gradual drying and warming trend will continue through the
majority of the weekend with clouds diminishing and temperatures
hovering around normal. Coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms should be at a minimum Saturday afternoon as
precipitable water values bottom out between 0.50 to 0.75 inches.
Even so, the southern and central mountains will still see some
afternoon convection as the previously mentioned remnant low
tracks into eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

The axis of the upper level ridge will begin to shift to the east
beginning Sunday and continuing through the first half of the work
week. This is all due to a broad upper level trough situated off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest which will slowly usher the
high out of our forecast area. This shift in the upper levels will
allow for another surge of moisture to be pulled in from the
south through much of the week, though models continue to differ
on the intensity and extent of the surge which is more than likely
due to the difference in how both the GFS and Euro are handling
the aforementioned Pacific trough. Regardless, the uptick in
moisture will allow unsettled conditions to prevail through the
long term period as well as knock temperatures back down to below
normal in response to increased clouds and showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Expect decreasing clouds with VFR conditions and CIGS above ILS
breakpoints during the remainder of the night through 18Z
Saturday. Lingering moisture beneath a building ridge of high
pressure will fuel afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over the higher terrain. There is a slight chance for
brief heavy rain at TAF sites in central and southwest Colorado
from 20Z/Friday through 03Z/Saturday. MVFR visibility and CIGS
below ILS breakpoints are possible with stronger thunderstorms.






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