Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 100510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS WAVE
CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
LATEST SFC DATA INDICATING LEE TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE DEEPENING LEE
TROUGH...WARM TEMPS AND RHS IN THE 8-14 PERCENT RANGE...WILL KEEP
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN TACT THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL AS FREMONT...EL PASO...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...AS MOST OF THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LOW END
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SLV.

REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION AS NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE CONTINUES OUT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE MILD SIDE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS ALOFT COOL SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AND
WITH LEE TROUGHING RE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW
MORNING...SHOULD SEE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND HIGHS SOME 5-10F COOLER THAN TODAY AREA WIDE. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 8-9C/KM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE FLOW...CANT RULE OUT A FEW -SHRA AND EVEN AN ISOLATED CLAP
OF THUNDER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED V PROFILES...THINKING MAINLY VIRGA AND
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

...COLD...WINDY...AND WET/WHITE ON SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM FCST PD CONTINUES TO BE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A COUPLE OF FAIRLY POTENT DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL
LIKELY BE NOT THAT MUCH OF A PLAYER WHILE THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE PAC NW WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW. QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING
UP SLIGHTLY SO WE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING 1/4 TO 1/3 OF
AN INCH LIQUID...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS/I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. PRECIP SHOULD ROLL IN SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
LAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY KIOWA COUNTY MAY
SEE A 2NDRY MAX IN PRECIP. SIMULATIONS STILL SHOWING THAT IT WILL
BE RATHER WINDY SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE PLAINS OF 20+
KNTS FROM THE NORTH. I TWEEKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND L50S PLAINS. WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO
-10...PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BUT AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS...NOT MUCH ACCUMS EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM GROUNDS ON
THE PLAINS.

EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY WET SNOW...WITH 6-12" ACCUMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE WARM. SATURDAY WE MAY SEE FIRE
WX ISSUES AS SFC SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND RH
VALUES WILL BE AT CRITICAL VALUES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S PLAINS. TUES AND
WED TEMPS WILL WARM UP IN THE 65-70F RANGE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME
HI ELEVATIONS LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE AND WED...MAINLY
C MTNS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...REACHING THE KCOS TAF SITE BY
AROUND 10Z...AND KPUB BY AROUND 11Z. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE WINDS SHIFT QUICKLY
OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KCOS. THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME VIRGA
AND LOCALLY ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH FOR NOW PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN KCOS TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING BY LATE EVENING. KALS WILL
SEE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN SOME WEST WINDS AROUND
15 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE BY 02Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



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