Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180456
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1056 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Currently...

Pleasant day across the region at 2 pm. Except for some high thin
cirrus, skies were mostly sunny across the region. Temps were
unseasonably warm with readings in the 60s to lower 70s on the
plains, and 50s and 60s in the valleys and 30s and  40s in the mtns.

Tonight

We will see a continuation of high thin cirrus move over the region.
Temps will be quite mild with lows generally in the 30s and 40s in
the plains and 20s and 30s in the valleys and mtns.

tomorrow...

Ridge aloft translates across the region. Temps are expected to be
very warm with temps reaching at or near record (possibly all time
record for PUB) values. max temps will be into the 80s across most
of the plains with 70s in the valleys. The record high for ALS is
69, 78 for COS and 85 for PUB (all time March max for PUB is 86).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...Hot and Dry with Increasing Winds and Fire Danger Sunday...

Saturday night-Sunday...Upper level ridging across the state on
Saturday gives way to increasing westerly flow through the day
Sunday, as Eastern Pacific energy moving onshore across the Pac NW
translates across the Great Basin. Warm air aloft under the ridge
will support very mild overnight lows across the area, with
increasing downslope slope flow supporting near or above record
highs for Sunday and for March as a whole, as stated in the short
term discussion. Current records for March 19th are 77F at COS, 86F
at PUB, and 72F at ALS, with all 3 records set in 1907

Latest models continue to suggest Sunday will be a critical fire
weather day across the much of the area, with the increasing
westerly flow aloft developing a lee trough across the Eastern
Plains supporting breezy westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph, strongest
along and west of the I-25 corridor, through the afternoon. With
that said, current Fire Weather Watch area looks good and will keep
it in tact for Sunday.  Again, will stress the need to be careful
with outdoor activities this weekend, to prevent any wildfire
starts.

Sunday night-Tuesday night...Moderate westerly flow across the
region Monday becomes more southwest through the day Tuesday, as
the passing system across the Northern Rockies Sunday night
continues to move east with upper level ridging building back
across the Great Basin and Rockies into midweek, ahead of a
stronger system digging across the West Coast. Passing system
sends a weak backdoor cold front across the Eastern Plains owning
to cooler temperatures across the area for Monday and Tuesday,
though will still be above seasonal levels. Could see a few
showers along and west of the ContDvd Monday and Tuesday with the
westerly flow aloft, with the cooler and slightly more moist
upslope flow across the plains likely limiting critical fire
weather conditions for early next week.

Wednesday-Friday...Latest longer range models continue to indicate a
pattern change starting later next week, as the West Coast system
continues to dig into the Great Basin through Wednesday and then
ejects out across the Central Rockies on Thursday. Models continue
to show differences on strength and location of this system with the
12Z operational GFS digging the system further south across the area
and closes it off across the Southeast Plains on Thursday. We did
not get a chance to see the 12Z run of the EC, though the 00Z run
continues to be further north and more progressive with the system,
bringing more wind than precipitation as its associated jet core
translates overhead across southeastern Colorado. Both models do
indicate good chances of precipiation for areas along and west of
the ContDvd starting later Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning, though it remains too early to stay whats in store for the
parched eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions expect at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Winds will increase from the south to southeast at KCOS and KPUB
around 10-15 kts on Saturday...and from the southwest 10-15 kts at
KALS 18-21Z Sat before decreasing again towards 01-02Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ221-222-225>233-235.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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