Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
918 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Issued at 915 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Updated fcst for today to increase pops over the higher terrain.
Given latest guidance and the obvious circulation over the mtns
near Gunnison, showers and storms likely over the higher trrn,
especially N Sangres and C mtns where upslope will be maximized.
Burn scars once again are main concern. /Hodanish


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Main near/short range meteorological concerns continue to include
temperatures, qpf/locally heavy rainfall/flash flood potential and
thunderstorm intensity.

Forecast district currently noting minimal precipitation, generally
light surface winds and continued near to slightly above seasonal
mid-July early morning temperatures.

Latest PV analysis, real-time data, high resolution computer
simulations and forecast model soundings suggest that abundant
atmospheric moisture remains in place across the forecast
district(as indicated by forecast precipitable water values
basically running in the 100% to 150% of average ranges over
many locations into tonight).

Recent PV analysis indicates that a bit more upper energy will be
moving across the forecast district during the next 24 hours(when
compared to the previous 24 hours) and when combined with the daily
orographic heating cycle and surface boundaries/features anticipate
that additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms(primarily from
this afternoon into tonight and favoring many Interstate 25 corridor
and western locations) will be noted.

The stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall/localized flash flooding issues as well as the potential
for some intense thunderstorms. Have again added afternoon/evening
locally heavy rainfall wording/etc. into the recently released
grid/zone packages. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and
issue hydro/severe products as needed.

Generally low-grade gradient winds are anticipated over southern
Colorado into tonight in combination with basically below seasonal
maximum temperatures and near to slightly above seasonal minimum
temperatures over the majority of the forecast district during the
next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Slow moving upper level vortex drifts eastward across CO on Sat,
with NAM taking system in wrn KS by late afternoon, while GFS
keeps it farther west over south central CO. NAM solution would
shift best forcing for precip Sat/Sat night into KS, while GFS
would keep deeper convection back west over CO. Tough to say which
is correct, as convective developments the next 24 hrs will play a
large role in determining where system ends up as mid level
steering flow is extremely weak. In either case, deep
moisture/instability will remain across the entire region, keeping
tsra chances high over the mountains and interior valleys, with
at least sct tsra on the plains as well. Certainly still a threat
of heavy rain with any storms, given plentiful moisture and slow
storm movement.

Upper vortex then shifts slowly east Sun/Mon as upper level high
flattens somewhat, which should lead to a downturn in convective
chances on the plains, especially Mon. Mountains/valleys will see
mainly terrain driven convection both days, while weak easterly
steering flows may tend to keep storms away from the I-25
corridor, though storm outflows could focus some brief convection
along the Raton Mesa/Palmer Divide in the afternoon. Temps will
begin to warm as moisture levels decrease slightly and convection
becomes less widespread. Recycled moisture and daily convection
will persist over the mountains Tue/Wed, while plains stay mostly
dry as storms will have a difficult time moving away from the
higher terrain. Upper high center then appears to drift east by
the end of next week, leading to an increase in storm chances
area-wide as renewed subtropical moisture tap begins to develop.
Temps will remain warm early in the week, then drift slowly
downward as moisture increases after Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Generally VFR conditions are again expected at the KALS, KCOS and
KPUB taf sites during the next 24 hours.  Afternoon into nighttime
showers and thunderstorms will again be capable of producing brief
MVFR conditions, especially if storms directly impact the taf




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