Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131731
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...Warm with Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms...

Upper level high pressure is building into western Colorado today. A
weak upper level disturbance will move through the ridge to bring
isolated showers and storms to the region this afternoon and
evening.  The high resolution models don`t really favor any one
location over another today, showing the usual development over the
mountains in the afternoon but then also bringing some activity
eastward across the plains later in the day into the evening.
Available moisture is down a bit from yesterday and the disturbance
is pretty weak so storm coverage and intensities are not expected to
be too great. Primary threats today will be lightning and gusty
winds to around 50 mph. Spotty heavy rainfall is still a possibility
given that satellite estimated precipitable water is still running a
little above average for this time of year.  Temperatures will warm
up a bit from yesterday with afternoon highs ending up 5 to 10
degrees above average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Models continue to support a pattern change ongoing through the end
of the work week and into the weekend, as the persistent upper ridge
across the Rockies breaks down with a series of embedded
disturbances within increasing southwesterly flow aloft across the
region.

The first Eastern Pacific system is progged to lift out across the
Great Basin Thursday and then continue across Northern Colorado and
into the Northern High Plains Thursday night and into early Friday
morning. Models have ample moisture embedded within the flow, with
PWATS increasing to between 125 and 150 percent of normal through
the day Thursday. Increasing orographic southwest flow aloft will
keep best chances of showers and storms across the higher terrain,
especially along and west of the Continental Dvd, with a few showers
and storms spreading north and east across the adjacent plains and
far southeast plains in the afternoon and evening. The increased
moisture will support the potential for locally heavy rainfall,
however, the increased steering flow will limit the flash flooding
potential.

Friday looks relatively dry across the area with chances of showers
increasing across central mountains later Friday night and Saturday
as a stronger system digging across the Great Basin lifts out across
the Northern Rockies on Saturday. This system looks cold enough to
bring some light snow the highest peaks of the Central Mountains,
though the best chances of any precipitation look to stay north of
PUB`s CWA. Could see a few showers across the area on Sunday within
southerly return flow behind Saturday`s passing front. Temperatures
look to be above seasonal levels through the end of the work week,
with cooler temperatures expected for the weekend, especially on
Sunday.

Models continue to support several more systems digging across the
Great Basin early next week, though differ on timing and location of
remnant Eastern Pacific tropical moisture embedded within the flow.
Latest models, however, do support a stronger and colder system
moving across the Rockies for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. There are already showers in the vicinity of KCOS and would
expect tstms to begin shortly and continue into the early evening
hours. At KPUB, high res forecast models are showing the
potential for showers/tstms in the vicinity from about 21Z thru
about 00z. The forecast models also suggest that there could be
some showers or tstms in the KALS area this afternoon and early
this evening, but at this time chances appear to be too low to
include in the forecast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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