Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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766
FXUS65 KPUB 170529
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Refreshed grids/zones to allow the Red Flag Warning to expire
and also to adjust near/real-time grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Currently...Red Flag conditions being met, or close to being met,
over much of the warned area, with frequent gusts over 25 kts and
RH dipping to 15 percent or lower. Still have not mixed out entirely
over S El Paso and Pueblo Counties, where dewpoints remain in the
50s as of 1900 MDT...but with a couple hours of heating to come,
expect winds to pick up and RH to drop this afternoon, so will
leave the Red Flag as is.

Chances of any precip look pretty low through this eve. Some
moisture convergence noted on Sat and WSR imagery over Las Animas
County and Prowers County, where some ISOLD convection will develop
over the next couple hours and spread to the east through this eve.
So, will maintain low POPs over the extreme SE Plains for this
period. Enough CAPE and shear near the KS border that if convection
can be maintained, an ISOLD strong or SVR storm cannot be ruled out.

Tomorrow, temps should be a few degrees lower in the afternoon as
temps aloft fall a few degrees and westerly flow weakens. Still
looking at near 100 degrees for the Plains however. A slightly
better chance for afternoon storms over the Mts and along or near a
stalled frontal boundary that will extend along and SE of the Palmer
Dvd in the afternoon. SPC has this area outlined in a Marginal SVR
threat for tomorrow. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Sun night and Mon an upr ridge wl be centered nr the OK, KS and Mo
border region, with the center slowly shifting southwestward into
Wed, when it is forecast to be ovr central OK.  At the same time,an
upr low wl be just off the Pacific NW coast Mon and wl slowly move
on shore. This will result in southwest flow aloft ovr the forecast
area Mon thru Wed, and wl allow a stream of mstr from the south to
work its way into western CO.  This wl mean a better chance for
pcpn, mainly west of the I-25 corridor.  Although, on Mon low level
upslope flow into the Pikes Peak region and low level mstr, with dew
points in the 50s, wl probably mean a fairly good chance for
afternoon and evening pcpn in that area, with maybe some isold
strong storms over the far sern plains.  Low level moisture then
decreases a bit for Tue and Wed. During this time, daily high temps
over the sern plains wl be a few degrees above average, with around
average temps ovr western portions of the forecast area.

On Thu the upr ridge centered is expected to move into northeast NM,
while a shortwave trof moves acrs MT and into the Dakotas. Pcpn on
Thu still looks to be mostly confined to the mtns and high valleys,
but late in the day a front is forecast to move into the ern CO
plains and may help initiate showers/tstms for the evening and late
night hours.

The upr ridge then wl be centered over nrn NM Fri and Sat with still
enough mstr ovr the area for isold to sct showers/tstms ovr the mtns
and high valleys, and isold storm ovr the sern plains.  High temps
wl likely be around to a few degrees above average each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the TAF sites over the next
24H. Upper level high pressure building over TX will push mid and upper
level moisture from the S/SW into the region tomorrow afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the
higher terrain during the late afternoon hours. Given the limited
coverage of storms tomorrow, the TAF sites will not likely see
VCTS, but gusty outflow winds from storms will be possible. ~Lukinbeal

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Lukinbeal/STARK



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