Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 060540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1040 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

...Temperatures Remaining Below Average...

Cold, dry northerly flow continues.  The airmass has moderated since
this morning but additional cool air will start rolling in from the
north after midnight.  So, another cold night ahead with
temperatures continuing a few degrees below average.  Lows will be
widespread in the teens overnight with single digits above and below
zero in some of the high mountain valleys.  With dry air, mostly
clear skies, light winds and a stronger inversion, Alamosa will
likely be even colder than last night.  The Alamosa Airport hit -1
last night.  They will probably hit at least -5 tonight.  Leadville
will probably be a bit warmer tonight due to a slightly warmer
airmass and possibly some higher level moisture moving in late. The
Leadville Airport will probably be in the single digits above zero
Wednesday morning after a low of -5 this morning.  Everyplace else
should be a few degrees warmer as well.

On Wedensday, a shortwave will push south into the area, cooling the
airmass and bringing a little bit of moisture this way.  There is
really not a lot of moisture but with the cold airmass, it may be
possible to squeeze out some flurries over the mountains in the late
afternoon.  Right now, the areas where this could happen include
the central mountains, the Pikes Peak Region and possibly the Wet
Mountains.  Again, doesn`t look like a big deal but some isolated
pops will be warranted in these areas by late in the day. With cold
advection underway, highs Wednesday will hold below today`s values
in most cases.  However, the onset of the cooling will be later in
the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains so those areas will
actually see warmer temperatures than today.  Highs for the San Luis
Valley and southwest mountains will be near average.  Elsewhere,
highs will be 5-10 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

Wednesday night-Friday...Strong northerly flow aloft continues
across the region, with long wave troughing in place across the
Upper Great Lakes through the High Plains, along with high
amplitude upper ridging persisting across the West Coast.

Latest models in better agreement of a minor wave and re-enforcing
surge of cold air, digging across the State Wednesday night through
Thursday morning, with a secondary system translating across the
region Thursday afternoon and night. The first wave looks to
bring some light snow showers to areas over and near the central
and eastern mountains, including the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa,
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with any
accumulations expected to be light and fluffy. Wave sends a
another cool surge across the area with breezy north to northwest
winds of 15 to 30 mph expected through the afternoon and highs
temperatures on Thursday only reaching the 30s to lower 40s across
the lower elevations, mainly in the teens and 20s across the
higher terrain. The second wave/jet streak translating across the
region on Thursday could bring another round of snow showers to
areas over and near the central and eastern mountains Thursday and
Thursday night. Latest models also remain consistent with a
strong pressure gradient developing on Friday, with gusty north to
northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph expected across the area through
the day Friday. Warming temperatures aloft and mixing associated
with the gusty winds will help temperatures warm back to around
seasonal levels on Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday...Northerly flow aloft continues to weaken as Omega
blocking pattern breaks down into the weekend and flat upper level
ridging builds into the region. Pattern suggests dry weather with
temperatures warming back to above seasonal levels through the
weekend, with a possible dry, backdoor cool front moving across
the eastern plains on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1031 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS and KPUB the next 24 hrs.
Forecast soundings show a cloud layer developing toward morning at
KCOS and KPUB with the ceiling being between about 6000 and 8000
feet AGL. A front will move thru KPUB and KCOS around midday Wed,
bringing northerly winds that could be gusty.

KALS should see VFR conditions thru the next 24 hrs. Wed evening
northeast to east winds are expected to develop. Clouds look
limited during the day, but in the evening a lower ceiling is
forecast to develop, but should still be in the VFR category.




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