Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1051 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 211 PM CST THU JAN 11 2018

The cold front is well through the forecast area as of early this
afternoon, with temperatures steadily falling into the teens and
20s. The greatest impacts thus far have been along and northwest of
a line from Olathe - MKC - Liberty - Chillicothe - Unionville. In
these areas, a combination of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and flash
freezing have resulted in hazardous conditions, especially on
untreated roadways and walkways.

A decaying band of snow has shifted into the KC Metro Area and
will produce additional snowfall amounts on the order of a couple
tenths of an inch before it shifts eastward and dissipates. Further
to the east, light scattered wintry mix precipitation in the form of
sleet, freezing drizzle, and snow flurries will continue through
late-afternoon before shifting to the east. Impacts from this appear
to be somewhat limited, in part to the later arrival of sub-freezing
air and warm road temperatures in the 30s, timed with the earlier
moderate precipitation. As for the winter wx advisory, the northwest
section will be allowed to expire at 3pm as the bulk of new
accumulating precipitation will have shifted to the east. Will issue
a SPS shortly to highlight concern for black ice, slick roads,
especially across untreated/secondary roadways, this afternoon into
the morning commute.

Thereafter, skies will begin to clear from west to east this evening
into midnight, and along with strong cold air advection, will set up
a chilly night with lows primarily in the single digits by sunrise.
While wind speeds will gradually relax through the night, northwest
winds will still persist between 10 to 15 mph. This will provide
very cold wind chills between 5 below zero over central Missouri to
near 15 below zero near the Iowa border.

Cold air with below normal temperatures will remain in place through
much of the extended forecast with highs largely in the teens and
20s. Wind chill, feel-like temperatures, through the period will
occasionally be dangerously cold at night into the early morning
hours. Models have been persistent in bringing an upper wave to the
region on Sunday, with some potential for light snowfall
accumulations.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CST THU JAN 11 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Clear skies
will gradually be replaced by midlevel stratus building in from
the west Friday evening, with bases between 7-10 kft. Winds will
remain out of the NNW to N, at speeds between 10-15 kts and with
occasional gusts to 20-25 kts that will become less frequent by
daybreak.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Laflin



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