Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270853

353 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

First of two frontal boundaries to sag south across the region
overnight. The first will result in a wind shift to the
northwest...while the second will result in the influx of much drier
air after 12z. In between these to boundaries...moist low-level
conditions will support developing MVFR VSBYs at STJ after 10z.
Conditions should quickly improve after 12z with northwest winds
increasing to 10-15 kts during the daylight hours.




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