Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

Frontal boundary steadily working through the region this morning
with heaviest pre-frontal rain & storm activity now well south of
the KC Metro. Rain should gradually come to an end this morning
as frontal boundary stalls south of the Route 50 corridor. Weak
surface high pressure will arrive later today, thus ensuring
frontal boundary remains in place through the overnight hours
tonight. Fcst models in recent days have been advertising a
further northward positioning of the stalled front, and this
morning`s runs have continued this trend. The main impact
resulting from this more northward positioning will be a chance
for redeveloping shwrs and storms later this afternoon/evening as
shortwave energy arriving in zonal flow aloft travels east along
the boundary. Overall severe threat looks marginal as best
instability remains south of our area and better wind fields to
the north. That said however, cannot rule out a few isolated
strong to severe storms across southern portions of the fcst area
later today and the latest day 1 outlook from SPC captures this
concern well. Precip chances will continue right through the
overnight hours tonight before tapering off later Monday morning.

By all accounts, the upcoming work week looks to remain very
active as a progressive jetstream pattern remains in-place over
the lower 48. Much of Monday and Monday night look to remain dry
following the departure of tonight`s system, but rain/storms look
to resurge into the area by Tuesday afternoon as a strengthening
low-level jet impinges upon a stalled front across the lwr
Missouri Vly. From this vantage point, this storm system appears
to be a fairly slow moving system, which means unsettled weather
looks to continue right into early Thursday with ongoing
shwr/storm activity. With ample moisture advection expected
thanks to an uninterrupted supply of Gulf moisture, heavy rain
and localized flooding concerns may once again rear their ugly
heads.

Conditions look to temporally settle down later in the day on
Thursday but don`t be fooled because models continue to advertise
an even stronger storm system impacting our region as we head into
the weekend. Again, ample moisture supply and slow system movement
look to also accompany this feature, which means an exacerbation
of any ongoing hydro concerns. To put things into perspective, the
latest 7-day QPF total from WPC paints upwards of 4 inches across
western parts of the forecast area through next Sunday. Obviously
this can change, however all signs continue to point towards a
very active weak with heavy rain and possible flooding being the
main concerns. Stay tuned...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

While off and on chances of precipitation are expected through the
forecast period, most activity will remain south of the terminals
through Monday morning. Winds will slowly veer with time as
surface high pressure to the north pushes eastward. Expect to see
increasing cloud cover and possible MVFR ceilings by the end of
the period as additional low level moisture returns to the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh



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