Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 313 PM CST MON FEB 12 2018

Quiet conditions are anticipated tonight through early Thursday as
the zonal, northern position of the jet stream keeps the pattern
dry. Winds will veer to the south southwest tonight, and while a
few flurries are possible on the leading edge of the warm air
advection in far northeast KS/northwest MO tonight, low-levels
should be dry enough to prevent more than a flake or two from
reaching the ground.

Overnight upper-level cloud cover will gradually clear off to the
northwest during the late morning to early afternoon Tuesday,
allowing high temperatures to rise into the 40s to possibly lower
50s tomorrow afternoon. Humidity may drop into the 30 to 35
percent range and allow fire danger to be somewhat enhanced during
the afternoon, but winds should stay generally below 15 mph,
dampening the risk of rapid fire growth/spread. Temperatures will
warm into the 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday as ridging builds east
and the thermal axis positions over the CWA; however, rising RH
should balance out the increasing winds/temperatures to keep fire
danger below a high level throughout the region.

A cold front will push through on Thursday afternoon, which is a
bit slower than previous runs and should allow temperatures to
warm into the 50s and lower 60s once again ahead of the front,
except in northwest MO where fropa will be a bit earlier. Patchy
drizzle is possible across central MO on Thursday morning ahead of
the front, then showers are possible along/just behind the surface
frontal passage during the afternoon. Strong dry air advection
should prevent any post-frontal precipitation from developing, and
have once again eliminated any lingering PoPs Thursday night from
the forecast.

After a mainly quiet weekend, wintry precipitation again becomes
possible at the end of the forecast period. Big discrepancies in
the timing of the next cold frontal passage mean a huge range of
possibilities for early next week, but may see a wintry mix behind
the front (whenever it comes through) as moisture streams up from
the southwest and overrides the elevated frontal boundary. Will
continue to monitor as models begin to settle on a solution later
this week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST MON FEB 12 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours while the wind slowly veers form east to south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Cutter



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