Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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873
FXUS63 KEAX 110511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1111 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 237 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2017

Benign weather conditions will continue to dominate throughout
this forecast period given the overarching pattern that remains
locked tightly in place. There are hints that the ridge in the
west and trough in the east will loosen their grips over their
respective regions by next weekend, but in spite of this change,
it doesn`t look to be enough to give the local area any decent
chances at precipitation. As a result of this dry pattern the area
has been trapped in, in addition to the time of year it currently
is, dry, dead/dormant vegetation is abundant. This fact, coupled
with the weather conditions expected to setup tomorrow, will yield
an elevated fire weather risk. See the Fire Weather discussion
below for more details.

As for temperatures, normal highs are typically in the lower 40s
this time of year, with normal lows in the lower to middle 20s.
Other than Tuesday and Thursday, temps look to primarily be above
average for the next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2017

The primary impact through the forecast period will be in the form
of strengthening low level and surface winds beginning Monday
morning, particularly during the afternoon hours. Northwesterly
sustained winds will approach 15 to perhaps 20 kts, with gusts up
to 35 to 40 kts during the afternoon. Gusts should begin to
slacken near sunset, though increased sustained winds will persist
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 237 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2017

Conditions tomorrow will come together for there to be an elevated
to potentially significant fire weather risk, especially given the
abundance of dry fuels available. Sustained winds tomorrow will
range from about 20 to 30 mph, with gusts reaching and exceeding
35 mph. Relative humidity values appear to bottom out primarily in
the lower 30 percent range, but there is a possibility that
portions of the forecast area could see even lower values,
especially across eastern Kansas into central Missouri. Given the
combination of the aforementioned conditions, there could be a
rapid spread of fires tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Welsh
Fire Weather...lg



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