Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Issued at 940 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Cooler outflow from the convective system in northeastern MO should
track through much of, if not the entire forecast area. This throws a
little wrench into how warm temperatures may be this afternoon. Even
without the outflow boundary moving through, temperatures were a
degree or two cooler than 24 hours ago. This boundary should knock
another degree or two off temperatures as it moves through the
western portions of the forecast area. Where the clouds and rain
cooled air are most prevalent, the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area, temperatures are about 15 degrees cooler than a day
ago. Given all this, highs in the northeast will likely only be in
the lower 90s or near 90 this afternoon. The southwestern quadrant is
a little more uncertain. Cloud cover should diminish earlier as the
boundary washes out. Plus it`s deeper into the upper high. Have
dropped a degree or two from the going forecast given potential to
more quickly heat up in the wake of the gust front. All this likely
means that the Kirksville area won`t see excessive heat today, or
really meet advisory levels. Will keep the headlines as is since the
overall pattern still favors excessive heat Saturday and potentially
into Sunday.


Issued at 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Main concern in the very near term will be the decaying MCS
currently edging into northeast Missouri, and how much the cloud
cover and precipitation associated with it will impact temperatures
this morning. Warming cloud tops and surging outflow indicate that
the complex may be on its last legs early this morning, but any
lingering cloud cover could definitely dampen diurnal temperature
rises across far northern and northeast Missouri. Have trended cloud
cover up and slowed temperature rises across the northeastern third
of the CWA throughout the morning, but did not significantly edit
afternoon highs as even a short amount of sunshine will allow temps
to soar in the overarching very warm pattern.

Impressive, broad ~600 dm 500 hPa heights over the southern Plains
will eventually lower and retrograde back to the west this weekend;
however, this will have no short-term impact on local temperatures
as the thermal ridge continues to bulge eastward across the central
Plains. Persistence forecasting has been and will continue to be the
name of the game with high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees expected today and Saturday until increasing cloud cover and
an eventual shift in the pattern begin to interrupt the dangerous
heat Sunday. Have left the heat warning as is due to very little
change in the weekend forecast.

A shortwave trough pushing into the Pacific NW today will round the
ridge this weekend and eventually begin to make some southward
progress as the upper high weakens early next week, allowing a slow-
moving cold front to sag southward across the Plains and eventually
into the forecast area by Sunday night or early Monday. Increased
cloud cover ahead of the front on Sunday will decrease highs for the
northern third of the CWA, then will progressively spread southward
and keep temperatures more seasonable (and more reasonable!) for the
coming work week. Showers and storms still look possible along the
frontal boundary late Sunday night through Monday, but have been
hesitant to raise PoPs above 50 with the bulk of the upper-level
forcing remaining well north of the forecast area. The front will
stall and eventually wash out over the region Tuesday; however, the
upper high will remain well to the west of the region and allow for
more northwesterly flow aloft to dominate our pattern, keeping rain
and storm chances possible on-and-off through the remainder of the
forecast period. Currently, the next best potential for rain will
come Wednesday as a shortwave trough slides down into the region;
however, specific timing is definitely not set in stone for any of
these later-in-the-week features.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Southeasterly winds
today should become more southerly with time as the influence of the
outflow boundary that moved through earlier wanes. There is some
indication that a thunderstorm complex may form northwest of the
terminals and move into parts of northwestern MO/northeastern KS.
Confidence is not high enough at this time to depict this in the
forecast, especially since there is very warm air aloft that should
suppress or cause to weaken any cluster that moves into the area.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ028>033-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-



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