Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 031708
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1108 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
Issued at 353 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Surface ridge currently stationed over the area, with very frigid
air in place. Clouds were a little tardy in clearing out, which
mitigated some of the surface cooling overnight. Right now
temperatures range from the lower single digits in the southern CWA
to around -5 toward the IA/MO border. Have slightly raised expected
lows for this morning, as the lingering clouds overnight slowed the
cooling process. That said, still expect temps to drop to well below
0 across the entire area by sunrise, with light and variable winds.
Wind chill values are still expected to drop into the -15 to -25
range across the entire area, thus the wind chill advisory will
remain in place through the rest of the morning, and should expire
around 15z. With the surface ridge over the area and the eastern
edge of the west coast ridge influencing the area, expect conditions
to be dry through the rest of the day.
A general warming trend will then commence on Monday as the surface
ridge migrates to the east, allowing for southerly surface return
flow to move in through the next couple days. The warming on Monday
will be marginal, as the cold Canadian air mass will greatly
influence the temperatures, but we can still expect a slight warm up
into the upper teens to lower 20s. By Tuesday there is a good chance
that we can get back above freezing as the southerly flow at the
surface continues to bring in "warmer" air. Expect highs for Tuesday
to be in the lower to middle 30s.
While Wednesday will see the warm up continue a weak shortwave
trough will glide through the area bringing a chance for some rain
and/or light snow. Unfortunately, this wave will also influence a
weak surface frontal boundary into the area, which will pause the
warm up for a day, as light NW winds affect the area for Wednesday.
That being said, we can still expect temperatures to be in the
middle to upper 30s, with perhaps a smattering of lower 40s. Given
the potential for temperatures well above freezing if any snow does
fall it will likely have a tough time accumulating.
The warm up will recommence later in the week, as southerly surface
flow and mid level ridging moves into the Central Plains. Highs for
Thursday and Friday will jump well into the 40s and perhaps lower
50s, which should put a large dent in the lingering snow from the
weekend system. The warm up will be interrupted on Saturday as
another broad/weak trough drops southeastward into the area. Light
rain and snow will be possible Friday night into Saturday. Again,
will run with a rain/snow mix, but will nail down precip types
better as we approach. Highs for Saturday will likely drop back into
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
For Sunday and Monday we are back to the races in getting some
warmer weather back into the area. S/SW flow at the surface picks
back up on Sunday and broad mid level ridging spread over the
region. For now will roll with temperatures in the 50s for
Sunday/Monday, but we may be able to make a run at 60 degree weather
by next Monday. Fingers Crossed!!!!!
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
No issues anticipated with VFR conditions. Variable winds will
become southerly late this afternoon. Some increase in mid-level
clouds will occur this evening/overnight.