


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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532 FXUS63 KEAX 240649 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 149 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Slow moving cold front is expected to work south tonight approaching the I-70 corridor. Storms along and north of the front could produce very heavy rainfall, and a strong wind gust or two. * Warm and muggy conditions return Wednesday - late week, with the potential for periodic storms late week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Cold front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the Hudson Bay extends from northeast Iowa into far southeastern Nebraska as of 20Z. While cumulus have begun to develop ahead of the front, atmosphere remains weakly capped with surface approaching convective temp in eastern Kansas. Convection has begun to develop along the surface front as atmosphere has become increasingly unstable with 7.5-8.0 C/km lapse rates from 750 - 600 mb yielding ~3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Upper level divergence from the right entrance region of the upper level jet is more concentrated across northern Missouri but remains broadly across the region tonight into Tuesday. As convection increases in the vicinity of the front, expect the cold front to work south and become the focus for additional storms tonight. With very deep warm cloud depths near 12K feet and PWat values near 2", am concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall in locations that see storms train and backbuild along the front. CAMs have suggested the potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 3-5+" with training storms along the front across northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri/far southeast Nebraska tonight into Tuesday. With dry conditions leading into the event and only isolated locations potentially exceeding flash flood guidance, am not considering a flash flood watch at this time. Current wind shear is very weak (0-6 km bulk shear < 25 knots) limiting the severe threat potential. Wind shear increases slightly this evening as the low level jet increases ahead of the front ticking up towards 30 knots this evening across northern Missouri, potentially leading to isolated strong to severe storm through the evening hours. With the very warm environment, height of the 50 dbz is near 40k. Downdraft CAPE of near 1000 J/kg is enough to lead to a strong wind gust or two with stronger more organized storms.Anoy outflow boundaries that develop could also serve as a focusing mechanism for additional convection. Additional storms are expected tonight into Tuesday largely along and north of the stalling boundary across the region. With relatively weak wind shear and relatively weak cap, severe threat along and north of the boundary is possible with any organized storms capable of producing a strong wind gust or two. Am not expecting heat advisory conditions tomorrow with clouds and scattered storms throughout the day. Lingering boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday leading to warm and muggy conditions spreading regionwide. Additional ridge riding short waves are expected to lead to additional chances of storms late week, though there is low model agreement outside of storm potential beyond Thursday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 RA and TSRA linger through the overnight. Chances for RA/TSRA lower after sunrise; however, chances return isolated RA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. CIGs outside of precipitation are expected to be low VFR. Winds remain variable becoming southwesterly late morning. Some intermittent gusts are possible through the afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Pesel