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000
FXUS63 KEAX 131754
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Today:
---------------------
Scattered, elevated thunderstorms may continue through the next
several hours on the nose of the LLJ, and could continue to produce
isolated severe hail in an environment with around 800-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 30-40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear. A brief lull in thunderstorm
activity is possible around sunrise as ongoing storms push east;
however, additional storm development is expected to begin along the
nearly stationary surface front/inverted trough axis by mid morning
across far NE Kansas and NW Missouri. Storms will gradually spread
along the boundary this morning, then will push southeastward during
the afternoon as the associated surface low kicks eastward into
central MO and drags the front across the forecast area. Additional
storm development is also possible early this afternoon just ahead
of the surface low across east central KS and west central MO, but
will gradually conglomerate with frontal precipitation during the
mid-afternoon.

MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are possible along and ahead of the
boundary this afternoon despite generally weak surface heating, and
will be accompanied by deep-layer shear values of 30-40 kts. Low-
level shear profiles are unidirectional and fairly unimpressive near
the surface, keeping the tornado potential very low. If storms can
become a bit more isolated just ahead of the surface boundary, large
hail will be possible; but with fairly widespread convection and
competing updrafts, shear vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to
the boundary and overall uni-directional shear, briefly damaging
winds and marginally severe (~1") hail seem the most likely
candidate for a severe threat this afternoon-evening.

Tonight and Monday:
---------------------
Behind the surface front, much cooler temperatures will filter into
the region. Profiles will quickly become supportive of a rain/snow
mix or brief periods of all snow late tonight into early Monday
morning, and fairly widespread (light) precipitation looks probable
along the northwest side of the surface low. Accumulating snow will
be very difficult to come by due to low snow rates and and very warm
and wet surfaces, but can`t rule out a brief tenth of an inch or so
on grassy surface across far northwest Missouri. Precipitation
should taper off from northwest to southeast on Monday afternoon,
exiting the region completely by sunset.

Tuesday Morning:
---------------------
A surface ridge will drift eastward across the forecast area late
Monday night into Tuesday morning while chilly northwest flow aloft
continues to usher in unseasonably cold temperatures. A damaging
freeze is likely Tuesday morning for any vegetation that has bloomed
out across the region, and a freeze headline will likely be needed
as Tuesday AM draws closer.

Wednesday - Saturday:
---------------------
Gradually warming temperatures are expected through Thursday, then a
clipper system may shove a cold front through the area again on
Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is the most aggressive in
bringing cold temperatures (and measurable snow) back into the CWA
for Thursday night into Friday morning, but have kept a warmer blend
in the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Very messy afternoon with scattered convection early this afternoon
from extreme eastern KS across northern and central MO before a line
of strong/isolated severe storms moves from west to east this
afternoon. This line should affect the terminals before 22z with MVFR
cigs. Winds will switch abruptly to the north and remain strong and
gusty with the passage of the front. Post-frontal rain and embedded
thunderstorms will linger for a couple of hours after frontal
passage.

An area of wrap around rain and drizzle likely to move in later this
evening. Temperatures should be cold enough for a rain/snow mix after
midnight over far northwest MO. Another system moves in from the west
on Monday with the entire column cooling well below zero such that
snow is expected over east central KS/west central MO. Could see
minor accumulations on grassy surfaces.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ