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000
FXUS63 KEAX 100459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 220 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

A mid to upper-level shortwave trough currently positioned over the
Four Corners will strengthen through the remainder of the afternoon
and push eastward and overhead the local area by Tuesday afternoon.
Already seeing an increase in mid-level cloud cover across much of
Kansas and Nebraska as moisture builds ahead of the storm system.
Locally, a dry and stable air mass has settled over the area in the
wake of a passing cold front this morning. A few isolated showers
have developed ahead of the main wave within an area of PVA and
increased 850 hPa flow across northeastern Kansas. This activity
may clip northwestern Missouri this afternoon, though the existing
stable air mass in place should steadily weaken this activity, if
it makes it to the surface at all. Initial more widespread storm
chances will hold off until after sunset as the associated surface
low advances into southwestern Missouri this evening. Increased
850 hPa flow ahead of the the shortwave trough along with
frontogenetical support will bring about initial forcing for
showers before midnight for areas across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. May also see isolated thunderstorms within the
initial activity given minor elevated instability, though no
surface based convection or severe weather is expected.
Precipitation chances will decrease Tuesday morning as the LLJ
weakens, though off and on rain chances will continue into the
early afternoon as the mid to upper wave advances across central
Missouri. In all, expecting rainfall totals to generally range
from a quarter to three quarters of an inch, with values
approaching 1 inch over northern Missouri. While flooding is not a
concern with this event given relatively low moisture fields,
river levels will need to be monitored.

A surge of cooler air will filter in behind the exiting surface
low Tuesday morning. This will aid in the development of extensive
low-level stratus across the area as temperatures rapidly cool in
a relatively moist environment. Lingering cloud cover will hold
temperatures in check during the afternoon, and now expecting
temps to struggle to rise above 50 for most areas, including the
KC metro. Precipitation will steadily exit northeast Missouri by
Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing a return of dry conditions
for the remainder of the work week. Surface temperatures will
slowly rebound beginning Wednesday, and by Friday and Saturday,
should have no problem returning to the low to mid 80s as upper
ridging develops to the south. This will then set the stage for
additional precip by Saturday morning into Sunday as moisture
builds ahead of another cold front, which will push through the
region Saturday night.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

With how dry the lower levels of the atmosphere have been, it`s
been difficult for the cloud cover to advect in from the west, in
addition to allowing for precip to reach the ground. However,
there are showers in the region with some further south producing
a few rumbles of thunder. As for direct impacts to the terminals,
will continue to see these scattered showers traverse through the
overnight hours, with LL stratus still anticipated to move in by
the pre-dawn hours. Upper-level low pressure cruising directly
overhead on Tuesday will allow for another round of showers to
potentially impact the terminals before exiting out toward the
east by the end of the TAF period. The cloud cover, however,
appears to linger around a bit longer, at least through the
remainder of this TAF period. Elevated northerly to north-
northeasterly wind speeds tonight should slacken slightly as the
day progresses on Tuesday, becoming more northwesterly by period`s
end.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...lg