Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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145
FXUS63 KEAX 010545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 152 PM CST WED NOV 30 2016

Quiet and seasonal weather is expected through the end of the work
week. Saturday night into Sunday, a weak northern stream wave will
move through the area. High pressure looks to be situated over the
mid-Mississippi Valley and should prevent decent moisture return
into the area. So the bulk of precipitation will fall much further
south. But over our region, the forcing associated with the upper
wave may be enough to wring out very light precipitation which,
depending on the temperature, may initially fall as a wintry mix
overnight/early in the morning, before becoming all liquid at
temperatures warm.

That wave will quickly push east and by Monday into Tuesday, another
wave will move into the area from the southwest. This will spread
mainly rain across the area but as with the previous system,
depending on the temperature at precipitation onset, may initially
be a wintry mix. By the middle portions of next week, models
continue to depict a strong storm system in the middle of the
country. But there is still a huge amount of variability both from
model run to model run and between models. So at this time it`s
impossible to provide any kind of detail with any level of
confidence as it will likely change with the next model run.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST WED NOV 30 2016

The area will start off with VFR conditions over NW Missouri and a
MVFR ceiling over N Missouri along the IA/MO border back into
Nebraska. This MVFR ceiling is expected to advect to the SE and move
into the NW Missouri region after 10z and near the MCI terminal
after 13z. There is some uncertainty with how far south this cloud
deck will reach as it may dissipate as it moves south and only reach
STJ as a solid deck. For this reason a TEMPO has been used from
13-16Z for MCI. This deck does appear to retreat north after 16z
bringing VFR conditions back to the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham/32



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