Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Relatively quiet weather is expected through tonight. The lone
exception will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms to
develop and move into far northwest Missouri early this evening into
tonight. Water vapor shows an upper disturbance and associated
drying over central Nebraska. Upstream of this impulse, remnant
convection from this morning has progressively weakened over
southwest Iowa. These features will likely be the focus for
additional thunderstorms to develop later today, some of which may
move into portions of the forecast area. A fairly sharp gradient of
instability and shear exists west of the Kansas/Missouri state line,
and this is not projected to shift east during the remainder of the
day. Therefore, the overall severe potential will remain low as
storms move into a less favorable environment. Convection should
struggle to make it much past the Highway 36 corridor, although it
should be noted one CAM does take a weak complex southeast towards
the Interstate 70 corridor before dissipating overnight. Otherwise,
patchy shallow fog is expected over central Missouri prior to day
break Wednesday.

The tranquil weather will continue for Wednesday into Thursday as
heights rise and upper support shifts away from the CWA. Highs will
return to near normal levels with readings in the mid 80s to near 90
both days. Active weather will return Friday into Saturday as an
approaching upper level trough and associated cold front slides
through the area. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the frontal
passage on Friday within an increasingly moist and unstable warm
sector. The best chance for widespread precipitation is expected
Friday night into early Saturday morning as the cold front and a
concentrated area of convection moves through the area. With the
timing of the front and associated convection, the best potential
for severe weather is currently expected to reside to the north and
west of the forecast area, although a few stronger storms cannot be
ruled out. Temperatures for next weekend into early next week will
be notably cooler with highs in the middle 70s to near 80s and lows
in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Scattered convection over southern IA and southeast NE could spill
into northwest MO and extreme northeast KS later this evening. The
activity is expected to dissipate during the pre-dawn hours and could
reach the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions with any mid level
cloud deck and convective debris cloudiness dissipating shortly after
sunrise.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ



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