Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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301
FXUS63 KEAX 151039
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
439 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 AM CST WED NOV 15 2017

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of a cold
front will continue to push east and outside of the CWA early
Wednesday as the boundary makes a steady push southeastward. A
much welcome change will arrive shortly thereafter in the form of
clearing cloud cover and abundant sunshine both today and
Thursday. Dew point values in the low 50s will rapidly decrease to
the mid 30s by the early afternoon, though surface temps will be
similar to those of Tuesday, mostly in the mid 50s across the
area. Increased 850 hPa flow out of the west will become
northwesterly through the morning as the main trough axis
continues to move downstream. Before it moves east of the area
later this evening, the attendant strong low level flow will
result in gusty surface winds as mixing occurs once cloud cover
clears. Wind gusts may approach 25 to perhaps 30 mph through the
mid to late morning and begin to decrease by the mid-afternoon
once the trough axis advects downstream. With slackening winds
underneath clear skies and cold advection overnight, low temps
will drop below freezing for most areas.

The surface ridge won`t have much residence time into Thursday as
weak ridging builds aloft and southerly return flow resumes by the
afternoon. Despite southerly flow, the residual cool air in
place will lead to unseasonably cool afternoon temps peaking in
the mid 40s across north central Missouri and low to mid 50s
elsewhere. A brief warm period, however, will affect the region
Friday. Afternoon highs will rise approximately 10 degrees above
normal, with the exception being northeast Missouri. It`s also
during this time that the next chance of rain showers and perhaps
scattered thunderstorm development is expected as a warm front
lifts north into the area, followed by a cold front Friday night
into Saturday. At this time, not anticipating any severe
development given meager instability values and displaced forcing,
though occasional lightning is possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.

A cooling trend is expected through the weekend until more
seasonable temps return Monday. Dry conditions look to persist
through the mid-week as of now, though will need keep a loose eye on
a couple of progged weak disturbances embedded within northwest
flow which may approach the area. For now, better moisture and
forcing will remain north of the CWA. Thanksgiving is beginning to
come into the picture, and for now, anticipate seeing dry
conditions with slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 434 AM CST WED NOV 15 2017

Lingering MVFR to IFR ceilings will quickly scatter this morning
as a dry air mass settles into place in the wake of cold front.
The main impact thereafter will be in the form of gusty winds as
strong low-level flow continues until the upper-level trough
advects downstream this afternoon and evening. Surface winds out
of the northwest will gust to 20 to 25 kts, particularly in the
mid to late morning, before tapering off near 21-22Z. Surface
winds will ultimately become northeasterly by the end of the
period, though should remain near 5 kts after sunset through
Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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