Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221716
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Persistent upper-level ridge remains centered across the Red River
Valley this morning with broad west-southwest flow prevailing over
the Central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Weak shortwave
disturbances embedded this this pattern are currently leading to
convective development across southeastern Nebraska and far western
Iowa. With time this morning...its possible a few storms may sneak as
far south as far northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri...however
overall confidence on this scenario remains too low to advertise
anything higher than slight chance pops. In any event...cloud cover
associated with this activity should clear out by late morning which
should set the stage for another warm day with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 80s.

Unseasonably warm temperatures to continue on Friday as southerly
flow persists in advance of large upper disturbance ejecting east
from the Intermountain West into the Central Rockies. With no airmass
modification expected and the likelihood for modest height rises...temps
Friday afternoon may edge Thursday`s by a degree or two.

Big changes on the way as early as Saturday afternoon as main upper
low lifts into the Northern Plains and additional energy drops south
into the Four Corners region. The northward trough axis will surge a
cold front east towards our region which should allow for developing
convection Saturday afternoon and evening across our area. With the
upper ridge deflected east across the Tennessee Valley and the
secondary trough digging across the Four Corners...stage should be
set for ample moisture transport north along the frontal boundary
into our area. From this vantage point...upper height pattern looks
to support differential moisture advection from both the Gulf and
east tropical Pacific which should support efficient rainfall
production despite best dynamics residing north and southwest of our
area. Models continue to show decent QPF values across our region as
southern trough member continues to dig into northern Mexico and the
American Southwest. This should ultimately prolong the frontal
passage and thus increasing potential for reoccurring shwrs/storms
through at least Monday. With such a warm airmass in place...coupled
with connections to both the Gulf and eastern Pacific...heavy rain
potential will certainly be a concern as this system impacts our
region. After the front finally clears the area by Tuesday...a
welcomed cooldown looks to be in store for the region as Canadian
high pressure settles south over the central U.S.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Quiet flying weather continues with steady south winds and scattered
cirrus.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Hawblitzel


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