Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170453
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Short range hi-res models cont to develop thunderstorms acrs ern KS
tonight btn 08Z-09Z which may move into the VC of the terminals
around 10Z but the bulk of pcpn should remain south of the terminals.
Models also cont to introduce MVFR cigs at the terminals around 10Z
as well and keep them at the terminals through the morning hours.
Cigs should finally sct during the afternoon around 2-3kft with just
sct high clouds expected during the evening. Winds will be light thru
the pd backing fro the SE to the E.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






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