Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 091739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1139 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2018

Main concern out of the gate this morning continues to involve
fog and freezing fog for areas primarily east of Route 65. Latest
images from the GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB band now
highlighting a northward expansion of low clouds and fog up
towards the Iowa border. Based on this, we may need to consider
expanding the dense fog advisory a little further north later this
morning, but will allow another hour or so before making a final
determination. Otherwise, fog should begin to burn off shortly
after 10z with all signs pointing towards another unseasonably
warm day with high temps running about 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Only caveat going to today`s high temp forecast
is the potential for slightly more subdued heating based on the
presence of upper cirrus aloft, however enough warm air advection
should occur to allow temps to warm to similar values as those
experienced across the area yesterday.

Heading into tonight, earlier concerns for widespread fog appear
to be a little less as fcst models are in reasonable agreement
that winds of 8-12 mph should prevail during the overnight hours.
This should result in low stratus being the more likely scenario
thanks to enough boundary-layer mixing. With clouds overhead along
with continued warm air advection, lows Wednesday morning should
bottom out in the mid to upper 30s for most. This should set the
stage for an even warmer Wednesday as temps rise into the mid-50s
Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next weather feature that should
begin impacting the area Wednesday night before continuing through
the day on Thursday. As has been highlighted in recent days, this
storm system will lead to widespread precipitation across the
area with rain eventually transitioning to snow Thursday afternoon
as cold air filters in behind the main cold front. While earlier
model runs suggested snow mainly confined to northwest Missouri
and far northeast Kansas, this morning`s runs have now shown the
possibility of a secondary frontogenesis band late Thursday
morning and afternoon which may lead to light snow accumulations
further south into the KC Metro and points south, mainly along the
I-35 corridor. Despite this, QPF totals still appear fairly light
which should keep snowfall totals less than a half inch for most
areas.

Beyond this, a long period of cold weather looks to again be in
store for the area as arctic high pressure settles south across
the region late week. Single digit overnight lows again look
possible towards the latter half of the weekend with highs in the
upper teens to lower 20s by Sunday and Monday. There may be a
quick clipper type system that moves across our area on Saturday,
however very little moisture availability should keep snowfall
totals fairly low.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2018

The reduced visbys and ceilings this morning are slowly on the
rise, and should therefore yield VFR conditions through the
remainder of the day. However, as warm, moist air continues to
flow into the region, the stage is being set for another upcoming
night of fog and/or low-level stratus impacting the terminals.
There is decent consensus of reduced visbys and/or ceilings
overnight into tomorrow morning, but the question remains on the
timing of impacts. Have therefore eased into the lowered
categories through the evening hours, with a prolonged period of
impacts expected late tonight through at least mid-morning
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...lg



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