Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171715
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

Wednesday - Thursday night:

This period will remain dry and warm with no discernible weather
concerns. Today should be similar to yesterday with mostly sunny
skies however, mixing will be slightly better today then yesterday
so went a degree or two warmer. Expect highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Deeper mixing and continued WAA on Thursday will allow
temperatures to further warm an additions degree or two with mostly
sunny skies again expected. Thursday night models depict a vort max
sliding just south of the area consequently we may see a few showers
and thunderstorms skirt the southern CWA boundary.

Friday - Sunday:

This period will provide unsettled conditions with some potential
for severe weather. On Friday, models depict a few lead shortwaves
moving into the Missouri River Valley, ejecting out ahead the main
upper trough which will be moving from the northern Rockies into the
western High Plains. These lead shortwaves could be the catalyst for
morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms however, weak capping may
hinder thunderstorm development especially through most of the day.
Consequently have opted fro chance POPs during the day. By evening,
the cap will have eroded as the upper trough moves into northern
Plains and forces a cold front toward the area. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along this front, north of the area during the
afternoon. This front will continue to progress southeastward
through the evening and approach the CWA. The front/storms are
expected to reach the CWA until Friday night. The timing of storms
into the area may limit the severe threat. During the
afternoon/evening on Friday, strong instability with CAPE values
between 1500-2500 J/kg will be available however, as we get into the
night time hours instability will be diminishing. Shear through the
event looks fairly weak as well. Consequently, severe potential will
hinge on the stronger instability being realized. If it is, damaging
winds would be the main threat. Expect storms to continue through
the overnight hours on Friday and through the day Saturday as cold
front slowly pushes across the CWA as the result of the upper level
trough moving slowly across the northern Plains as it tries to close
itself off. By Saturday night, the front will have pushed through
the CWA however, showers will continue to be possible Saturday night
into early Sunday as the upper level trough moves through the
region. Surface high pressure will begin building into the region on
sunday finally drying conditions out. Highs Saturday, with cloud
cover and storms, will only reach the mid to upper 70s. Highs on
Sunday behind the system will only reach the mid 70s.

Monday - Tuesday:

The beginning of next week looks to bring a return to tranquil
conditions. Monday, surface high pressure will continue to dominate
the area with cool northwest flow aloft. This will keep temperatures
below average with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Tuesday, upper
level ridging building into the area from the southern Mississippi
River Valley coupled with a return to southerly flow as high
pressure shifts eastward will allow highs to move back into the
lower 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon. There is a slight
chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, but latest trends
suggest a dry forecast through the period. Winds will generally
remain out of the S to SW while decreasing near sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Welsh



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