Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231735
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

Quiet weather to start the typical work week as surface high
pressure briefly makes a visit to the area. By tonight, the high
will have already exited off toward the east, leaving this forecast
area open for southerly flow to return through at least the first
half of Tuesday. This wind shift will allow for a non-diurnal
temperature trend for tonight through early tomorrow morning with
the lows likely happening earlier in the overnight period versus
right around sunrise. Other than a very cold start to this morning,
followed by a noticeable warmup by tomorrow, the weather will
otherwise be benign through early Wednesday.

Low pressure approaching the forecast area Wednesday from the NW
will graze past, bringing with it the chance for snow with some
accumulations possible later in the day Wednesday through early
Thursday. Would like to see better model consistency with respect
to the exact placement of where higher snow accumulations might be
possible to gain higher confidence but at this time, widespread 1
to 2 inches looks reasonable with the upper range of those amounts
possible across northern Missouri and lesser amounts further
south. At this time, despite temperatures anticipated to reach
into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the southern portions of
the forecast area, the precip will likely fall as all snow
everywhere as the temps will have dropped in those areas by
Wednesday night across the south before the snow reaches there,
given that the temporal forecast for precip ETAs stays on track.
However, something to keep in mind is that the temps could impact
the snow accums as well. Snow ratios could very well be higher
across the northern forecast area than the southern, thereby
impacting those accums. Better clarity into the details should
continue to come into focus as this event approaches.

High pressure will once again move back in behind the aforementioned
low with no mentionable PoPs at this time late Thursday through
early Saturday. As for next weekend, it continues to look like a
bit of a forecasting challenge given upper-level ridging advecting
warmer air into the region, opening up the possibility for another
mixed precip scenario. Key model differences evident within the
latest 00Z runs below around the 850mb level forces the forecast
confidence on the specifics to be on the lower side. Given the
relative consistency and run-to-run trends of the WAA affecting
the region, have attempted to account for this by indicating the
wintry mix chances in this latest forecast update. Stay tuned for
the finer details as models continue to grab a better handle on
this tail-end of the forecast period system.

Temperatures for the most part will remain on the colder side
throughout much of the forecast period with that aforementioned
warm-up expected tomorrow, hanging on just a bit into Wednesday
before highs drop back off into the teens and 20s Thursday and
Friday. Currently, highs look to warm back up over next weekend,
thanks to that WAA moving in, reaching into the mid 30s to lower
40s by Sunday. Again, confidence is not very high this far out for
temps given such a dynamic system, but generally speaking, look
for a warm-up to occur unless unforeseen drastic changes with
future model runs occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the entire forecast period with gradually
veering and increasing winds through the day on Tuesday. There is a
hint that there could be some low level clouds on Tuesday, with
perhaps a period of MVFR CIGS, however a majority of models and
guidance do not support the low level clouds, so opted to leave them
out for now. Will reassess that forecast element on subsequent
aviation forecasts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton





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