Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300204
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
804 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Cold front currently from just north of Mena to near Mountain
Home. Showers and thunderstorms continue in southeast Arkansas.
Increased cloud cover over central and south sections with the
cold front slower to move through the state. Increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms in the southeast though they should
taper off after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 551 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016
)

AVIATION...

Another cold front is entering northwest Arkansas at this time.
This front will bring cooler and drier air with it...which will
also decrease cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
continue in the southeast corner of Arkansas through the
eveninig...affecting LLQ at times. Northwest winds will be behind
the front...and will be gusty at times on Wednesday. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected except MVFR in the southeast.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period chances of
convection over southeast AR, and any threat for isolated severe
storms. Then dry weather in the forecast for the rest of the week.
Rain chances return for the weekend.

Clouds have held over AR today and have also keep temperatures in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Best convection is well south of AR,
while some lighter convection has set up over southeast AR this
afternoon. Currently light showers are seen. SPC tornado watch
has been issued for far southeast AR and areas to the south where
the max heating, instability and dynamics are present. Current
model trends keep this out of AR, some additionally showers and
isolated storms are possible this afternoon to evening until the
upper low pressure trough and cold front push through the region.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night

Will keep a slight chance to chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms in parts of central and southeast AR this afternoon
to this evening, with the front expected to clear the state late
tonight. Most of the convection will be seen over far southeast
AR where there is limited instability and dynamics are present.
Wind and hail would be the primary threats. Model timing of the
front has it reaching northwest AR around 00z, near Little Rock
03-05z, then southeast AR around 06-09z. The front is expected to
push the convection out of the state by Wednesday morning. Then
cooler and drier conditions will be seen through the end of the
week. Lows will be in the upper 30s to 40s tonight, then mainly
30s to lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday night. Highs will be from
the upper 40s in the far north, to the 50s to lower 60s Wednesday
and Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Interesting pattern shaping up, and there could be a brief wintry
mix of precipitation across a few select areas in the north this
weekend.

Looking at the upper level pattern, a rather vigorous low should be
developing across the southwestern US and northern Mexico. This
should start kicking out a few shortwaves over the area by Saturday
and Sunday. ECMWF weakens and brings this trof across TX and starts
to tilt it negatively, while the GFS kills it off and merges it
into the predominant flow aloft. Either way, I do not have a
tremendous amount of confidence in either solution but will lean
more toward the ECMWF scenario for the time being. I will
generally keep POPs in the 50 to 60 pct range through the period.

This does present some interesting scenarios, as temps across
portions of the north could be cold enough, at least briefly, for a
wintry mix. For the time being it does not look like this will
affect a large area, nor will it occur for more than a few hours
each time. On Saturday night it appears that the cold layer aloft
may be deep enough to create a mix of rain and sleet in the higher
elevations. On Sunday night it appears that the cold layer will be
more shallow, and this could allow for some brief periods of
freezing rain, mainly across the northwestern zones.

This is still several days out, and a lot can change, and for the
time being this appears to be a very short lived event, over a
limited area. However it is significant as this would represent the
first mention of wintry weather in the forecast this season.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

51


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