Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 030024
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SERN AR THIS EVENING
WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT KLLQ. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD AT
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WL BE OVR NRN AR LATER TNGT AND WED
WHERE LOW CLOUDS /MVFR CIGS/ WL INCRS ASSOCD WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE
ROTATING ARND THE DEPARTING UPR LVL STORM SYS. GUSTY SWLY WINDS WL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE W AND NW THRU
WED. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
PRETTY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN INTO
THE MID SOUTH REGION CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE WIND SHIFT HAS LAGGED. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
ONE COULD ARGUE FOR THE PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALLOWED FOR THINGS TO MIX
OUT PRETTY WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OVER THE WEST HAS MADE FOR
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS. WILL LET THE
WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 40S...AND LOWS MUCH
CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST REMAINS STATIONARY. AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BRING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING... AND HUMIDITY INCREASES.

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 30TH
PERCENTILE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

$$


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