Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
837 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Have made a few adjustments to forecasts through 17/18z. MCS now
affecting eastern Nebraska is forecast by several CAM type models
to approach northern sections of the forecast area Saturday
morning, while weakening.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017)

Westward moving outflow boundary from Judsonia, to Dumas will
continue to be monitored for any convective development. Central
and southeast locations will have a wind shift due to the outflow
boundary. VFR conditions expected to prevail after 06z.



VFR conditions are in the forecast through tonight. Scattered
cumulus and a thunderstorm or two will be noted this afternoon,
with mainly high clouds tonight. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
this afternoon will become light southerly tonight. (46)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Other than a random thunderstorm or two this evening, it appears
the most active weather will stay to the east of Arkansas through
this evening.

Ridge of high pressure will be anchored to the southwest through
the near term. West/northwest wind flow around the high will bring
a weak system on Saturday. This may result in isolated
showers/thunderstorms toward the Missouri border. Otherwise, the
first part of the weekend will be dry and hot.

On Sunday, a cold front will arrive from the northwest. The front
will trigger hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly over
the northern half of the state. Along with chances of
precipitation, clouds will keep it cooler across the north.
It will remain hot in southern sections of the state.

Heat index values Saturday will likely reach the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees in much of central/southern Arkansas. Similar
indices are expected in southern sections on Sunday.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Early in the extended term the main issue will be a cold front
sinking southward into the forecast area. This should provide for
some decent POPs on Sunday night into Monday as the front pushes
southward across the area.

Considerably drier air will be moving in behind the front. Dewpoints
across the north should drop down into the 50`s, with lower 60`s
across the south. Unfortunately this isn`t going to cool things
down, but it will result in lower heat indices for a few days.

By Wednesday a return flow should develop at the surface, bringing
the dewpoints back up once again. The area should remain on the
eastern edge of a high pressure ridge over the southwest, which will
keep temperatures quite warm.

One thing worth noting, however, is that the NHC is expecting the
possibility of tropical development in the western Gulf in the
extended term. And indeed, some of the synoptic models are trying to
develop a tropical system. The Canadian model, for example, spins up
a system in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe and takes it into the
Florida panhandle, while the NAVGEM and ECMWF hint at something
affecting the lower Texas coast by mid-late week. Then the Canadian
model spins up another system and brings it into the same Texas
coastal area late in the week.

While this is all highly speculative at this point, and even if
anything develops, the probability of it affecting AR is low, it`s
worth keeping an eye on.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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