Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270254
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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