Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 191747
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...KEEPING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS HEATING DECREASES. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...BUT DID INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AROUND MID WEEK.

AGAIN A COOL OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS ARKANSAS. 10 TO TO NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ADDITIONAL RECORDS WILL POSSIBLY BE BROKEN THIS MORNING. SEE THE
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) FROM OUR OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN OVER
THE AREA...WHILE SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AR. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO FORMED IN SPOTS. THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL MAKE
IT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINS
INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THIS EARLY MORNING WILL START WITH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AR...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG FROM
AROUND KADF AND TO THE WEST. THE FOG WAS MAINLY FORMING IN THE
AREAS THE STRATUS CLOUDS WAS THINNING. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THIN AND BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS IS STILL AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY...THEN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS AND LESS
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER FORECAST. RETURN
MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF INTO MID WEEK UNTIL SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WITH ARKANSAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND HAVE KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO END THE LONG TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  86  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         65  90  69  92 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       62  86  66  89 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  88  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  88  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     66  89  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      64  87  67  91 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  87  66  90 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        64  87  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     65  88  70  91 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  88  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         64  87  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      65  87  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




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