Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260905
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
405 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LOW CLOUDS WERE SPREADING NEWD ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
PERSISTENT S/SELY WINDS HELD TEMPS AT MILD READINGS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S ATTM. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONT INCRSG ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MRNG.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN DVLPG ALONG A STALLED FNTL BNDRY ACRS ERN KS/
WRN MO THE LAST FEW HRS. MODEL DATA CONTS TO INDC THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WL SEND AN OUTFLOW BNDRY INTO NRN AR LATER TODAY. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDC THAT CAPPING INVERSION WL WEAKEN OVR NRN THIS
AFTN...WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING ALONG THE SMALL SCALE BNDRY.
EXPECT A DRY DAY ELSEWHERE WITH CLOUDS SLOLY BREAKING DURG THE AFTN
HRS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

BY TNGT...FOCUS WL QUICKLY TURN TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVR THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS. AN OUTBREAK OF SVR WX IS FCST TO UNFOLD AS A POTENT
UPR LOW MOVES EWD OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
STATES OVR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS.

CLOSER TO HOME...THE CONVECTION OVR THE PLAINS WL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LN/MCS AS IT WORKS INTO WRN AR BY LATE EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY WL CONT TO SHIFT INTO CNTRL AND ERN AR THRU DAYBREAK WED.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX CONCERNS WL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURG
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CONVECTION COMING THRU DURG THE LATE NGT HRS...
THE SVR WX POTENTIAL WL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT.

ON WED...THE EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION/SVR WX POTENTIAL RMNS
UNCERTAIN. MAIN CONCERNS ARE LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRY/S AND IF THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER LATER IN THE DAY AS THE CDFNT MOVES INTO THE FA.
SINCE THE MAIN UPR LVL SUPPORT WL BE LIFTING N OF THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY...THE EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WL HAVE TO RELY ON THE
AMT OF AFTN HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCD WITH THE SFC FNT. RAIN CHCS
WL DIMINISH WED NGT AS THE CDFNT PASSES THRU MOST OF THE FA.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AS I/VE MENTIONED THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED AND STORMY.

FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME AREAS PUSHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.

OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE RAIN WILL COME IN
WAVES...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MEANDERS AROUND THE STATE...AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...AND
OVERALL SLOW LOW LEVEL STORM MOTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO FORM AND MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS.

IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH EVERYTHING LINING UP THE WAY IT IS...THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXARKANA TO
JONESBORO...AND SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP IN EXCESS OF FOUR OR FIVE
INCHES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-
COOLED AIR MAY BE A BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR.

BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...57


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