Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 122006 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL BLANKET THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP NORTH/WEST OF LITTLE ROCK SUNDAY MORNING.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS AT 2000
FEET WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH...STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS
SPREADS SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS.

FIRST OFF...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BOTH IN THE DELTA AND IN THE
OZARKS...ARE THE ONLY PLACES THAT ARE HITTING OR RELATIVELY CLOSE TO
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS AROUND AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ESSENTIALLY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE VERY NEAR LAKE WIND CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...BUT WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF ANY AREAS WILL MAKE IT FIRMLY INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MOVING ON TO THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BOTH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS
WELL AS RAINFALL/CONVECTION. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
AS A RESULT. AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH AN 80-100KT JET STREAK PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS AS THIS OCCURS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
OCCURS SUN MORNING THROUGH SUN EVENING SHOULD STAY SITUATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL OR
POSSIBLY WIND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND A HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. MODEL QPF AND SIMULATED RADAR PRODUCTS
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A SQUALL LINE OR BOW ECHO ACROSS NRN
ARKANSAS SUN NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT SEEM SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH...NOR IS IT INCREDIBLY LOW EITHER.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN IMPINGING
VERY COLD AIR MASS. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH SEEM PROBABLE...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FOREACST AREA. REGARDING THE COLD...HAVE
PUT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NRN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ALREADY BELOW
FREEZING...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS...NAM...AND EUROPEAN...ALL SHOW
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MON
NIGHT...AND MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN UNDERCUTTING THAT. CONFIDENCE IS
THEREFORE HIGH IN THIS LATE SEASON FREEZE. DID NOT TAKE LITTLE ROCK
TO THE FREEZING MARK YET BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT MAY BE THE
CASE IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS INITIALLY...WITH FAIR WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...AND
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. SOME
DATA SHOWS DECENT QPF...WITH OTHER DATA KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND LITTLE QPF AROUND HERE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS IF
WETTER SOLUTION MORE LIKELY TO PAN OUT.

DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH A PLEASANT START TO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO
START THE PERIOD...WITH AT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  73  57  58 /  10  40  80  50
CAMDEN AR         63  77  64  65 /  10  20  80  50
HARRISON AR       59  72  46  48 /  10  50  80  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  74  60  61 /  10  40  80  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  75  60  61 /  10  30  80  50
MONTICELLO AR     64  77  64  68 /  10  10  80  60
MOUNT IDA AR      60  73  57  58 /  10  50  80  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  72  49  51 /  10  50  80  50
NEWPORT AR        62  74  59  60 /  10  30  80  60
PINE BLUFF AR     63  77  63  64 /  10  20  80  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  75  55  57 /  10  50  80  40
SEARCY AR         61  74  58  60 /  10  30  80  50
STUTTGART AR      63  76  61  63 /  10  20  80  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46









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