Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 122351
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.AVIATION...
A stationary front will be draped across southwest Arkansas
through the period. A storm system will move out of the Plains
tonight and rain will spread from west to east. Ceilings will
slowly lower and best chances for thunderstorms will be in the
south. VFR and MVFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
19z subjective surface analysis indicates a nearly stalled
frontal boundary across southern Arkansas, then extending westward
to the Red River region. This feature will not move much during
this period.

Several disturbances will move from west to east from the plains to
the mid Mississippi valley during this period.  The southerly low
level flow promoted by these features will promote additional
moisture and overall lift to the region. Expect several rounds of
convective complexes to form during this period. The first is
expected to affect at least southwest portions of the forecast
area late tonight and early Sunday. Some heavy rainfall will be
possible, although at this time, the forecast axis of the heaviest
rain should beTuesday located just southwest of the forecast
area.

Later convection will be focused by smaller scale boundaries and
previous convective overturning.

Well cooler than normal high temperatures will continue through this
period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
At the beginning of the period, complex of storms could get going
Monday night, as an upper level system moves through and
interacts with the stalled frontal boundary.

Gradually on Tuesday and into Wednesday, the front will shift back
to the north, as upper ridging attempts to build in to the region.
From then, convection should become more diurnal in nature, with
coverage not as high, but with precip still possible as disturbances
in the flow move around the periphery of the ridge, which should be
to the south or southwest.

By the end of the week, the upper ridge should contract or move
southwest enough to allow a cold front to approach the region from
the northwest, with the chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing.

As much as it pains me to say it, temperatures will warm through the
period, especially as surface flow becomes more southerly. But, the
good news is that they shouldn`t stray insanely far from average for
this time of year. Oh well, it`s still summer. But...it is better
than the 100-degree weather we can tend to see this time of year,
wouldn`t you say?

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51



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