Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 261752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
.AVIATION...26/18z Taf Cycle
Low end VFR cigs expected acrs the FA this aftn. Sctd convection
wl dvlp this aftn...with VCTS included at all fcst locations attm.
Better chcs for shra/tsra wl occur later tngt into Fri mrng...
but timing and coverage rmns uncertain. /44/
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
On the whole, the synoptic setup is pretty similar to yesterday.
Several weak upper level systems will move through and interact
with moisture and daytime heating and allow for scattered showers
By this afternoon and evening, a more potent upper level system
will move up into the region from the southwest, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming likely. This will continue into Friday and
Friday night, with several more waves of showers and thunderstorms
likely as more systems move up across the region in the mean flow.
It`ll continue to be humid the next couple of days, with
temperatures in the 70s and 80s in the daytime and mostly in the
60s at night.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in the short
term periods, primarily this afternoon and on Friday, with
marginally severe hail and damaging winds the primary concern.
Also, any stronger storm would be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, and this would be enough to cause localized flash
flooding issues. However, widespread or organized severe weather
is not anticipated at this time, as it does not appear that there
will be widespread surface-based destabilization, and there is an
over all lack of a synoptic scale forcing mechanism.
Through Friday night, the heaviest rain is expected across the
western portion of the area, where one to three inch amounts will
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Chances for SHRA/TSRA will continue through most of the long term
period as an unsettled pattern will remain over the region through
the holiday weekend. However...the best chances for organized
convection will be early in the period on Sat as an upper level
shortwave trough lifts NE over the plains...with a weak trough
axis lifting NE over the region. Plenty of moisture will remain in
place given the continued SW flow aloft and SRLY SFC flow late
this week into early this weekend. Have only mentioned chance POPs
for Sat due primarily to no significant synoptic scale forcing
mechanisms moving over the state...just a gradual weak upper
trough axis. However...given the high levels of moisture...and
fairly high instability...should see some scattered to numerous
SHRA/TSRA activity Sat afternoon. Wouldn`t be surprised if some
storms became SVR...but widespread and organized SVR WX doesn`t
look likely at this time.
By late this weekend into the middle of next week...the upper flow
will relax over the region...with generally zonal to partially SW
flow moving over the SRN Plains. Given this setup...think the trend
in convective potential will become more diurnally driven...with
highest POPs during the peak heating of each afternoon. If organized
convective activity were to develop...it would likely be result of
mesoscale features difficult to pinpoint this far out in the
forecast. As a result...have chance POPs during the afternoon
hrs...then slight chance POPs during the overnight timeframe Sun
As for temperatures...will continue with near or just above normal
conditions for much of the period...along with high humidity levels
expected. However...will have the coolest temps forecast for Sat as
more cloud cover and precip coverage is expected.
Otherwise...expect 70s and 80s for highs over most areas...though
some low 90s may be possible over the SRN sections of the CWA. Lows
will be in the 60s and 70s.