Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 140836
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
335 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

One more unseasonably warm day expected acrs AR today as high
pressure aloft remains in place over the region. Looking at highs
today in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Several locations wl see
temps approach record levels this aftn (See table below). Low lvl
moisture wl also cont advecting into the FA thanks to increasing SLY
winds.

For tngt and Sun, the aforementioned upr high wl weaken to allow a
new storm sys/CDFNT to affect AR. Models have been in good agreement
with the movement of the front thru the state, entering NW AR arnd
15/06Z, into central sections towards 15/12Z and out of SERN AR by
midday on Sun.

A line of convection is fcst to form to our NW later today ahead of
the CDFNT. As the front works SEWD into AR tngt, convection wl bcm
elevated in nature, limiting the potential for organized strong/svr
storms. Rain chances wl diminish fm the NW late tngt and Sun mrng as
the front heads quickly SEWD. High temps on Sun wl likely occur
early in the day ahead of the front, then rmn steady or sloly fall.
Much cooler and drier air wl advect into the area to close out the
weekend.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Northwest flow aloft will send surface high pressure into the region
behind the front. Temperatures will be much closer to or a little
below seasonal averages through mid-week. By Thursday, the high will
shift eastward, with winds gaining a southerly component. As a
result, temperatures will warm through the end of the week.
&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...
Well, one more day of really warm temperatures should yield near-
record highs today. At the stations listed below, the high
temperature today will come within about five degrees of daily
record highs.

Location              Forecast High   Daily Record

Harrison                    88          92 1899
Batesville Airport          89          94 1938
Flippin                     89          89 1989
Mount Ida                   90          95 2015
Hot Springs Airport         91          94 1963
Jacksonville                91          91 2015
Little Rock                 91          93 2015
North Little Rock           91          90 2015
Pine Bluff                  91          95 1928
Russellville                91          96 1963
Stuttgart Airport           91          91 2015
Monticello                  92          94 1963
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...57



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