Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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440
FXUS64 KLZK 200511 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1211 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period except for
brief MVFR conditions around sunrise at the central and southern
terminals. A storm system will be approaching from the northwest
with precipitation chances returning to the northern terminals with
a return to occasional MVFR conditions. Winds will be from the south
to southeast for the most part and average around 10 mph or less.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
increasing significantly late tonight, but mostly on Thursday to
Friday, and a continuing chance into the weekend. Also if there
will be any severe storms as well as heavy rain potential and
possible flash flooding. Temperatures will start warmer than
normal, then cool back to cooler than normal behind a cold front.

Currently, partly to mostly sunny conditions are seen over AR,
with a few isolated showers over central areas, and areas to the
east and west of AR. Temperatures were in the 80s, with dew point
temperatures in the 60s. Surface high pressure was off to the east
of AR, with a south wind flow into AR, helping to increase
moisture levels. Aloft, nearly zonal flow was currently over the
region, the an upper system well to the north of AR over the Great
Lakes.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night

Will keep a low chance of light convection in the first period due
to current radar trends. Activity is forecast to weaken and
dissipate after sunset. Toward Thursday morning, a cold front will
approach AR from the northwest, as the upper shortwave system
moves through the central Plains. Convection chances will
gradually increase over northern to parts of central AR on
Thursday to Friday, as the boundary sags into AR, and becomes
nearly stationary. The upper lift does become stretched out over
southern MO and northern AR and will bring several periods of rain
to northern AR. Localized heavy rain will be possible, with an
increasing risk of flash flooding developing. The stronger upper
shortwave will push into AR over the weekend and keep the chance
of convection over the region. There remains some risk of isolated
strong to severe storms in the short-term, but uncertainty in
timing and location are present.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

A strong low pressure center will be over Kansas to begin the long
term period. Southwest flow will be over Arkansas ahead of this low.
The low will track north of Arkansas Saturday as a ridge builds over
the western U.S. The upper trough then moves to the east coast
Sunday night and Monday. Zonal flow returns to most of the country
Tuesday then an upper low moves into the northwest.

A surface low pressure will enter Arkansas Saturday morning with a
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with this cold
front. Rain chances will diminish Saturday afternoon and night once
the front moves through. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through
Wednesday with high pressure in control. The next front will
approach northwest Arkansas Wednesday night and bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the north and west. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Saturday through Monday before a warm
up begins.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56



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