Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181950
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Some very isolated SHRA have been attempting to develop early this
afternoon...with mainly just some isolated areas of light rain or
sprinkles observed so far. Will still see some potential for SHRA
and isolated TSRA this afternoon into the early evening
hrs...generally along central to ERN sections of the CWA.

For this evening...some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will remain
possible across central and ERN sections...but more organized
convection will be possible across WRN and NWRN sections of the CWA.
However...this potential will depend on the evolution of convection
across OK this afternoon and early evening. Near-term high-res
guidance continues to suggest an organized line or cluster of
SHRA/TSRA moving rapidly east towards AR early this evening...then
lifting E/NE into WRN and NWRN sections of the CWA by midnight. Will
then see activity shift east across the NRN half of the CWA during
the early morning hrs on Fri. Have upped POPs across WRN and NRN
portions of the CWA for this reason...but keep POPs only in the
chance category as uncertainty in this general evolution remains.
POPs and confidence decrease the further east and SE and over time.
In NWRN and NRN sections...there will be some potential for seeing
SVR Wx...with damaging winds the primary threat...with some large
hail also possible. Again...the best threat for seeing SVR Wx will
be across the far west and NWRN counties late this evening into the
early morning hrs Fri.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will be isolated to widely scattered on Fri
into Fri evening...with no organized convection expected. A cold
front will be approaching from the NW by Sat morning...with a line
of SHRA/TSRA expected along and ahead of this front. This front
will push SE into the state by Sat afternoon...with the best
potential for SHRA/TSRA along this front. Looks like there will be
an initial line or complex of convection early in the day across
WRN/NWRN sections of the CWA...then potential redevelopment later in
the afternoon further east. Exactly when and where this
redevelopment occurs remains uncertain due to differences in model
guidance timing.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The period wl start off unsettled as the main upr trof/assocd CDFNT
wl be working thru the region heading into Sun. Will continue to
likely POPS acrs the FA Sat ngt, with rain chcs decreasing on Sun as
the storm system finally pushes off to the E of AR.

Drier conds wl briefly return for Mon and Mon ngt as sfc high pres
slides EWD acrs the state. Another fast moving storm sys wl bring
the next chc of rainfall Tue and Tue ngt. Both the ECMWF and GFS
have come into better agreement today with timing of this feature.
Much drier and cooler air wl return for the remainder of the PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  83  70  81 /  50  30  30  70
Camden AR         71  87  72  83 /  30  30  20  70
Harrison AR       67  82  65  77 /  50  30  60  60
Hot Springs AR    69  85  71  80 /  30  30  30  70
Little Rock   AR  71  86  72  83 /  30  30  30  70
Monticello AR     73  86  72  85 /  20  30  20  70
Mount Ida AR      69  84  70  79 /  40  30  30  70
Mountain Home AR  68  85  67  78 /  50  30  40  60
Newport AR        71  85  71  83 /  40  30  30  70
Pine Bluff AR     72  86  72  84 /  20  30  20  70
Russellville AR   70  85  70  80 /  40  30  40  70
Searcy AR         70  84  70  83 /  40  30  30  70
Stuttgart AR      72  86  71  85 /  30  30  30  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...44



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