Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 162033
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
233 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
An upper level ridge over the high Plains is providing Arkansas with
a northwest flow today. An upper level low is also over Mexico. The
ridge will move east tonight and the low will move to the northeast.
The ridge moves into the Great Lakes Region Friday while the low
moves through north Texas. The low will move slowly across Arkansas
on Saturday.

Models are in good agreement in the short term. Clear skies will
continue through tonight with high pressure in control but shifting
east late. Clouds will begin increasing on Friday. The low pressure
will pull moisture north out of the Gulf of Mexico and will increase
rain chances over Arkansas. The best rain chances will be across the
eastern half of the state Friday night into Saturday. However,
amounts should be light. The system moves east of the state by late
afternoon or early evening Saturday, so the rain will be ending as
well.

High temperatures look pretty similar for Friday and Saturay, in the
mid to upper 60s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s
and warmer Friday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Another day, another cutoff low. (That`s how that expression goes,
right?)

Elongated upper ridge will follow the departing upper low on
Saturday night and Sunday, as split flow again sets up over the
western CONUS. The ridge will move east on Monday, with southwest
upper flow developing and pushing a surface boundary and associated
low over the Gulf back to the north a little bit. The southwest
flow, along with uplift north of the surface boundary will allow for
precipitation to develop and move into the region Monday afternoon
and night. Coverage should be scattered in the north, and a little
more widespread in the south, given the closer proximity to the
surface system and approaching upper low. With the upper low
present, there will be enough elevated instability for
thunderstorms, though coverage should remain isolated at best.

Any showers/storms will wind down on Thursday, as the elongated
ridge to the east breaks down and the upper low moves into the
eastern Gulf. Another surface boundary will approach the region, but
will likely not affect the area until beyond the end of the period.

Think below average temperatures are coming? Think again. (I figured
I owed it to you to phrase it differently today, since I`ve been
saying the same thing for three straight days).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     40  67  48  66 /   0  10  30  30
Camden AR         40  68  51  70 /   0  10  40  30
Harrison AR       41  68  47  67 /   0  10  20  20
Hot Springs AR    39  67  49  67 /   0  10  30  30
Little Rock   AR  40  68  49  67 /   0  10  30  30
Monticello AR     41  68  51  69 /   0  10  40  30
Mount Ida AR      39  67  49  67 /   0  10  20  20
Mountain Home AR  39  69  47  68 /   0  10  20  20
Newport AR        39  67  48  66 /   0  10  30  40
Pine Bluff AR     41  68  50  68 /   0  10  40  40
Russellville AR   38  68  48  67 /   0  10  20  20
Searcy AR         38  67  48  67 /   0  10  30  30
Stuttgart AR      40  68  50  67 /   0  10  40  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...57


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