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000
FXUS64 KLZK 090004 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL...EXPECT ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY DECLINE IN
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BEST SITE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
BE IN THE NORTH AND HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION TEMPO -RA WITH 2SM
VSBY AT KHRO AND KBPK THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT KHOT AND KADF FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO AMEND THAT AND PUT IN
TEMPO OR PREVAILING -RA SOONER IF BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS SHIFTS EAST QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CIGS PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPING BENEATH THE MVFR CLOUD DECK. HAVE BKN-OVC CIGS
BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AGL AT MINIMUM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
CLOUD DECKS BELOW 1000 FT AGL. MVFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING
IN THE NORTH BUT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
SOUTHERN SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT...BUT
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS THAT PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. THUS...LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER IS
EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER WITH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY EVEN
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTH
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THEN...AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO AR AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NW OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON WED...WITH POPS INCREASING
ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE STATE. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NORTH AND NE OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTIES ALSO REMAIN
REGARDING HOW COLD TEMPS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE
COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW EARLY ON WED WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WINDOW WILL
SHRINK AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS WITH
TEMPS WARMING BACK UP BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...AND CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN. FOR NOW THOUGH...THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP REMAINS LOW FOR AR.

BY THU...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN....WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER AR ON FRI...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ONLY SILENT POPS GOING FOR
NOW. THE FORECAST WILL END ON A DRY NOTE...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  36  56  42 /  40  60  10   0
CAMDEN AR         65  45  59  46 /  30  60  20   0
HARRISON AR       53  31  57  41 /  60  60  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  43  58  44 /  40  60  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  43  58  44 /  30  60  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     66  45  62  48 /  20  50  20   0
MOUNT IDA AR      62  39  57  39 /  50  70  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  33  57  41 /  50  70  10   0
NEWPORT AR        53  36  56  44 /  30  60  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     65  44  57  45 /  30  60  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  39  61  38 /  50  70  10   0
SEARCY AR         62  40  56  40 /  30  60  10   0
STUTTGART AR      63  42  56  45 /  30  60  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64