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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
331 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY TO
BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY AND BRING LIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EVEN SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE IN THE NORTH AND ONE
IN THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS AND
THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...TAPERING OFF IN THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WILL BE A BIT WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY THIS MORNING SETTLING ON A SOLUTION
CONCERNING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE NATIONS
MID SECTION. DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT WITH TIME AND AS
SUCH...A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WILL BE USED. WHILE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN...ALL AGREE IN A WARMING TREND
WITH NO CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE WITH UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES...THE
ECMWF MOVES THE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO NEAR LAS VEGAS.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL ENDS UP VERIFYING...AREA WILL BE IN A
PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING IN
RESPONSE. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE FROM OUR RECENT COLD SNAP. SINCE
THE MODELS ARE BEING BLENDED...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE AS WELL.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES AS A
COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS LOOKS TO BE
FASTER MOVING THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO
TO IT A LITTLE LONGER. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS AND TAKE
A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     51  29  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         55  30  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  29  55  38 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  30  58  40 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  30  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  31  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      54  30  58  40 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  51  28  55  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        51  30  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     53  31  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  30  57  39 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         52  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      53  31  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56