Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271611 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS TODAY. STILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEST AS THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
ANOTHER WARM FALL DAY ON TAP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS...AS WELL AS MVFR
TO ISOLATED IFR IN THE ARKADELPHIA AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING...BECOMING NE TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO MS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS
OF AR. HAVE KEPT MOST AREAS DRY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...MOST OF WHAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEP...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S.

A BIT MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF FOR SUN...BUT
AGAIN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL REMAIN EAST OF AR.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY ON
SUN AND EVEN INTO SUN EVENING ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
EVEN SO...STILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THE BEST POPS FOR THE CWA WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES...AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE A BIT FURTHER WEST...BUT
CHANCES FOR THIS ARE TOO LOW TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS. PERSISTENCE
ON TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR SUN AS WELL FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEG COOLER THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY FOR ALL AREAS...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND 50S AND 60S
FOR LOWS. THE NEXT SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OF FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK AS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NW.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS INFLUENCE THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN SLOWED A BIT BY MODELS...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE JUST INCREASING CLOUDS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SOME
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SEEN IN NW AR...WITH GFS AND EURO TIMING CLOSE
TO EACH OTHER. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ON THURSDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AR FROM THE WEST...AND GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR AR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSH CONVECTION OUT OF THE STATE BY
SUNSET...OR A BIT EARLIER. THERE WILL BE SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM RISK...BUT TIMING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEPT OVERALL RISK
LOW. FRIDAY WILL BECOME DRY AND BREEZY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN LOWER BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  62  85  62 /  10  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         87  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  65  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  65  86  64 /  10  10  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     88  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      84  62  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  60  84  60 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        86  62  83  61 /  20  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  63  84  63 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  63  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         86  63  84  62 /  10  10  20  10
STUTTGART AR      87  62  82  62 /  20  10  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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