Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210912
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
412 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

INITIALLY UPDATED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TREND TOWARDS
THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH.

CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT..TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DEEP AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE SATURDAY.
BEGAN TO TREND DEWPOINTS UP AT THIS POINT WITH RAW MODELS SUGGESTING
70 PLUS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.

AT THIS POINT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.

RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL CHANCES AND
QPF INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE. WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS BEEN FAIRLY HARD HIT IN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT...BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST AS THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS
CONT TO INDC AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN ACRS THE MID SOUTH. A
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING SEVERAL UPR LVL IMPULSES
NEWD THRU AR. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. WITH SOILS ALREADY QUITE
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WL ONLY ENHANCE THE CHCS OF
ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE MODELS DO INDC THAT THE UPR PATTERN WL DE-AMPLIFY OVR
THE SRN STATES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WL RESULT
IN DRIER CONDS FOR THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  47  68  54 /  10  10   0  20
CAMDEN AR         71  55  74  59 /  30  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       65  46  65  51 /  10  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  53  69  58 /  20  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  53  72  58 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  53  73  60 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  51  66  57 /  20  10  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  46  66  51 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        65  48  70  56 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  53  72  59 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  52  68  56 /  10  10  30  20
SEARCY AR         67  48  72  54 /  10  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  52  72  59 /  20  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.