Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 112332
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.AVIATION...
High pressure will be over the area through the period. Clear
skies and light winds will dominate the forecast. Expect some fog
late tonight and early Thursday morning with MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 227 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

Cold front that moved through the state yesterday helped to usher in
a very cool airmass over the area today. Morning low clouds that
built in from the north have all but eroded with only the
northwest quarter of the state still seeing cloud cover for a
bit longer.

Overnight, surface high pressure will fill in over the area and
winds will go light and variable to calm. With clear sky conditions
in place, temperatures will fall fairly rapidly after sunset and
will end up in the 40s across the north with lower 50s elsewhere.
May see some fog development, particularly across northern valley
and lake areas, closer to the center of the high. But, by mid
morning Thursday, mostly clear sky conditions and unobstructed
visibilities should resume.

As high pressure drifts northeast of the area, southerly winds will
return to the area from west to east Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning. Temperatures will begin to moderate as well, with Thursday
being the transition day and near normal temps hanging on for a bit
longer. By Friday however, temps will return to well above normal as
the upper ridge inches back north toward the state and widespread
south/southeasterly flow in place at the surface.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Friday night and Saturday, models are in agreement with dry weather
conditions with warm temperatures. Highs will again warm to the 80s.
The upper and lower high pressure ridges will be centered over the
SE U.S., with a south wind flow into AR, while the upper southwest
to northeast flow will allow a frontal system to sag south toward
AR. This front and upper system are forecast to move southeast on
Sunday, and bring a chance of convection to AR. Sunday morning will
be the best chances over northwest AR, although, through the day,
the upper dynamics become stretched out and weaken over AR. Due to
weakening lift, limited instability and moisture, lower chance
convection, with overall rain amounts less than an inch, probably
even less, will be forecast. Sunday night to Monday morning, the
cold front and upper system are forecast to move southeast and take
most of the rain out of AR by sunrise Monday. A dry and cooler air
mass will filter in behind the front, which will bring dry and
cooler weather to the region through Wednesday. Temperatures behind
the front will be closer to seasonal averages after the front.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51



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