Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 110934
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain each day,
possible thunder in forecast, then any chances of winter weather
mainly over northern AR. Temperature forecasting also a challenge
over period. Elevated winds today will prompt a lake wind advisory
for much of AR.

Currently a nearly stationary/warm front was over central AR and
is slowly lifting north. An area of light convection has developed
from around KLIT and to the east. This area is also associated
with some lift as the warm front lifts northward. Otherwise,
temperatures were in the 50s to lower 60s behind the warm front
with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, while north of the
boundary, temperatures and dewpoint temperatures in the 40s. Some
patchy fog was also noted. Aloft the upper pattern was zonal with
shortwave energy and moisture seen upstream.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The forecast will start cloudy with patchy fog, and isolated
showers over central to eastern AR. Much of today will stay cloudy
with only a slight chance to low chance over AR through the day.
Winds will be elevated again and a lake wind advisory will be out
from late morning to evening for much of AR. Temperatures will
remain well above normal with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Tonight, continued cloudy with patchy fog, with only a slight
chance of light rain or showers with mild lows in the 50s to 60s.
Thursday will see a front sag south to southern MO to near
northwest AR. Much of the state will remain mild with a slight
chance of showers and possibly some thunder. Highs remaining in
the 60s and 70s. Winds will remain elevated but below lake wind
advisory levels. Thursday night. the cold front sags a bit more
south to northern AR, with a chance of rain in the forecast.
Models this run hold the cold air over southern MO and keep all
precip into AR liquid at this time. Rain amounts through Thursday
night will be only a few tents to less than a half inch. Better
rain amounts will be Friday and over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday...

Latest data continues to show the stalled frontal boundary over some
portion of the Ozarks of NRN AR...but with the coldest and sub-
freezing temps remaining north of AR. Even the colder ECMWF and CMC
have warmed slightly with the latest runs...though still show areas
just across the AR/MO border getting real close to the freezing mark
Fri morning. Have all liquid precip forecast now for Fri
morning...but will still note that this may still change as the
latest data comes in over the next 36-48 hrs. If any FZRA were to be
seen through the end of the week...it will be the counties near the
MO border...and NERN portions of AR. Will be paying close attention
in the coming days as only a few deg change in the forecast will
create a significant change in possible hazards by the end of the
work week. Even so...confidence is higher in the areas north of AR
will have the higher impact FZRA hazard developing late this week.

While chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast with ample
moisture and and SE flow aloft...most precip will remain along and
north of the stalled front across NRN AR through the weekend. As a
result...the heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding will
be north and NW of the state through Sun night. Even so...rainfall
amounts may exceed an inch from today through Sun night across NRN
sections of the state...or along and north of the stalled front.
Temps along and south of this front will remain well above
normal...with highs in the 60s to even some 70s possible. Lows will
generally be in the 50s...with some 60s possible. North of this
front...30s and 40s will initially be seen on Fri...then 40s and 50s
over the weekend for highs.

A stronger upper level system will move over the region by early
next week...with the potential for additional widespread SHRA/TSRA
expected Mon into Tue. While uncertainty is high this far out
regarding the SVR Wx potential...some strong to SVR storms may be
seen early next week. Heavy rainfall may end up being the larger
threat as this storm system will move slowly east across the region.
However...uncertainty this far out will prevent discussing exact
amounts possible...but several inches of rainfall may be seen for
some portion of the state the last 2 days of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  60  67  39 /  30  30  50  60
Camden AR         74  62  73  56 /  20  20  30  30
Harrison AR       67  54  61  36 /  20  20  30  70
Hot Springs AR    70  62  71  53 /  20  20  40  50
Little Rock   AR  72  61  71  50 /  30  20  40  50
Monticello AR     73  63  74  55 /  20  20  30  30
Mount Ida AR      70  61  70  53 /  20  20  40  50
Mountain Home AR  67  58  63  35 /  20  20  40  60
Newport AR        68  61  68  39 /  40  30  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     72  62  73  52 /  30  20  30  40
Russellville AR   70  60  68  48 /  20  20  40  70
Searcy AR         70  61  69  43 /  40  20  40  60
Stuttgart AR      71  62  72  49 /  40  20  30  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-
Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62



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