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000
FXUS64 KLZK 112339
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front was located near the Louisiana border and providing a
focus for thunderstorms. Much of the rain has moved south of our
area but a few isolated showers do continue. Expect mainly small
rain chances through the evening. Patchy fog is expected in the
morning. Precipitation chances should be low during the day
Saturday. Expect mainly VFR and MVFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 309 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

Zonal to northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term
period as the area remains near the southern periphery of a deep
upper layer trough with upstream ridging in the intermountain-
west. Several impulses embedded in the northwest-to-zonal flow
will impact Arkansas, especially along/near a frontal boundary
that will act as a focus for convection as it oscillates north and
south over the next several days.

In the near term, quasi-organized convection will continue to
move across the southern half of Arkansas over the next few hours
along a pre-frontal trough and ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. While the majority of updrafts will remain below severe
threshold, can`t rule out a "rogue" severe storm over the next few
hours. Deep layer shear is rather insignificant, however, warm
moist air in the low levels has resulted in fairly high CAPE
values. Freezing/WBZ heights are rather high, so only the
strongest of storms may produce hail.

Most convective activity will diminish overnight Friday as
CAA/drier air filters in behind the cold front as it pushes
through the state. Have kept in some POPs for southern/western
Arkansas Friday night and Saturday as return flow/isentropic lift
over the frontal boundary (likely stalled in northern LA) may
produce a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

The next shortwave is expected to reach Arkansas on Saturday
night. Once again, convective activity will be focused along the
frontal boundary which will likely be near the LA/AR border.

As far as temperatures, have kept lows near normal over the next
couple days while highs will be below average once again due to
lack of sun, especially on Sunday. The GFS solution keeps temps
much below 80 for the majority of the state due to convective
activity... while the NAM/EURO assumes less rain and slightly more
insolation. Have went with the latter solutions as exact placement
of convective activity may vary.

Long Term...Sunday Night through Thursday

Frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary over the region
through the extended periods. Several upper level systems will move
through and interact with it, and waves will form and move along the
front. The result will be a continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperature forecast is low-confidence, with highs mostly below
average, and lows mostly above average, largely dependent on cloud
cover and rain that falls.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51