Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181455 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
950 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Earlier update fine tuned convection as
it moves south associated with a weak upper system. It has gradually
lowered in intensity as it moves south. This was also ahead of the
cold front over central AR, which will continue to drift south,
gradually thinning clouds as drier air filters into AR. Clouds will
decrease from north to south into the afternoon, and bring partly to
mostly sunny skies northern and central, while mostly cloudy
becoming partly sunny over the south in the afternoon. Highs will
reach the 60s to some 70s. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 646 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/
.AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

CDFNT was moving thru central AR attm, and wl cont to drop SWD
thru the rest of the FA by midday. Low end VFR CIGS wl prevail
along and S of the bndry this mrng, with OCNL MVFR conds where
SCT convection occurs. Winds wl shift to the N behind the FROPA
with clouds decreasing at drier air moves in. The fntl bndry is
fcst to return NWD as a warm fnt late tngt into Sun. A few
showers/storms could affect N AR, but appears this wl be just
beyond this fcst period. /44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night

Latest SFC data indc a CDFNT was apchg CNTRL AR early this
mrng. Scattered SHRA/ISOLD TSRA was noted along and ahead of the
bndry earlier, but overall coverage has diminished somewhat since
midnight. Hi-Res model data have been handling these trends fairly
well and plan to stay close to their solutions for mrng rain/temp
trends.

The aforementioned fntl bndry wl cont to drop SWD thru the rest of
the FA early aftn and eventually stall out just to our SW. Plan
to carry low POPS for the mrng hrs over the S half of the FA, with
dry conds expected this aftn. Wl also include some patchy fog early
this mrng, mainly along and S of I-40. Clouds wl gradually dcrs as
drier air filters into the region today, and a weak ridge of sfc
high pres blds into the state.

The stalled out fnt wl lift quickly back acrs the area later tngt
and early Sun as a warm fnt. Could see some elevated convection form
ovr N AR late tngt/early Sun along the bndry. Warmer air wl return
to the region to close out the weekend.
&&

Long Term...Monday through Friday

On Monday, broad upper ridging will be in place across Texas and the
far southern Plains. Deep troughing will be in place in the
northeast Pacific and just off the mid-Atlantic seaboard. The
ridging in the south will be persistent through the first few days
of the long term period, despite the replacing of upper troughing
over/near the northeast United States through Thursday of next week.

Locally, the upper ridging to our west will slow the progression of
a frontal boundary southward into the state. The front will extend
from surface low pressure in north central Oklahoma to around St.
Louis on Monday morning, but will take until late Tuesday night to
reach central/southern Arkansas. The front will lift back to the
north as a warm front on Thursday, ahead of an energetic system that
will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the state late
next week.

Expect several bouts of showers, with embedded thunder, from Monday
night through Wednesday. This will be mainly focused along the mid
level front which will hang back across central to northern
Arkansas. Rain chances reflect this, with the highest PoPs located
in the northern half of the state. Highs on Monday will reach the
upper 70s to low 80s ahead of the front, but expect highs only in
the mid 50s behind the front to upper 60s ahead of it on Wednesday.

Attention then turns to the potential for severe storms to end the
week. We`re still a long ways out from this event, and details
(timing, instability, location of the trough, etc) will make all the
difference. Suffice it to say it is something to keep an eye on as
the overall pattern looks supportive of severe storms.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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