Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 282322 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTD TO FILTER INTO THE FA THIS AFTN
THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT OVR THE PAST 24 HRS. MID AFTN TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

THE ASSOCD HIGH PRES SYS WL SETTLE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THIS
WL KEEP TEMPS AT BLW NORMAL LVLS THRU THE SHORT TERM. DRY CONDS WL
ALSO PERSIST THRU TUE...BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDS RETURN FOR WED AND
THU.

A DVLPG STORM SYS WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES BY WED...WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHCS INCRSG OVER TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS RMN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT REGARDING THE ONSET AND EXTENT OF THE RESULTING
OVERRUNNING RAINFALL THAT WL DVLP. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
STILL INDC THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL WL AFFECT MUCH OF CNTRL AND
SRN AR...WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FCST TRENDS. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BLW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES TO START THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE TROUGH
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY WARM...YET STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE STATE. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE EURO A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT...DID KEEP WITH THE
FORECAST AND MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58
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