Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 202350
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
650 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.AVIATION...
The cold front continues to slowly move through Arkansas this
evening. HRO and BPK should be done with the rain. Mainly light
rain will continue northeast, central and south into the evening.
Expect the rain to be spotty and dissipate in the northeast and
central sections after midnight. The rain should continue into the
early morning hours in the southeast. There will be patchy fog
across the area into the morning. Mainly VFR and MVFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain in the
first and second periods, any additional flooding or flash
flooding concerns, and a temperature forecast of continued below
normal, mainly high, temperatures.

Convection today has mainly been rain and showers, with isolated
thunder. Main area that came out of northeast TX and southeast OK
and into AR continues to move east across the state. Intensity has
gradually weakened, while earlier, heavy rain prompted flash flood
warnings over parts of west-central AR. This was triggered by an
upper short wave system moving through the region, while the
expected cold front has only made progress to far northwestern AR
at this time. The front will move southeast through AR tonight and
help push much of the rain to southern AR. The chance of rain
forecast will remain high until these systems move out of the
region. The upper level low pressure trough is deepening in the
eastern Plains at this time and will help the movement southeast
of the cold front. Otherwise, temperatures have only reached the
70s over most locals due to clouds and rain.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Will keep a likely chance of rain and showers with isolated
thunder in the evening and tonight period, trending lower chances
as the cold front pushes through the state. The chance of very
heavy rain and possible flash flooding appear to be lowering as
the upper energy becomes sheared and moves east. On Sunday, rain
chances lower significantly from north to central, while lower
chances remain over the south. The front is expected to make
progress on Sunday and push much of the rain to far southern AR or
even out off the state. Monday starts dry, but models are showing
again some upper short wave energy in the returned southwest upper
flow to move into western AR. Forecast trend has this, but some
uncertainty is present in amounts and coverage. Otherwise,
temperatures will be cooler than normal on Sunday, then a bit
warmer on Monday.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...

A transition in air masses will be taking place at the beginning of
the long term period with warm, more moist air returning as high
pressure continues to shift east of the state and provide more of a
srly flow to the area. Isolated to scattered rain chances will be in
place across the state as a few weak upper disturbances round the
edge of the upper high and help provide some lift over the area.

Toward the end of the period, a broad upper trough will make its way
east across the central part of the country, at the same time a
surface cold front will approach Arkansas from the northwest. There
is some indication that this front will make it into the state but
this is highly questionable as the front will likely get caught up
in more of a zonal flow and not have anything to force it southward
much. Regardless, as this front approaches with more moisture in
place and swrly flow at the surface and aloft, more numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the state once
again.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51



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