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000
FXUS64 KLZK 070937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY AND WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. A CLOSED LOW COULD THEN FORM IN MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH...AND PARTS OF NORTH ARKANSAS.
THIS COULD CREATE SOME SLICK ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY OVER THE STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
TO MID 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE MOVING
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THAN THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVENTY DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE
LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT IS
JUST ABOUT ALL THEY AGREE ON AT THIS POINT AND AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND
THE WILDLY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS WILL BE UNDERTAKEN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE STATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST.

UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES EAST TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS RAINFALL.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AIDED BY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN
SHOWING GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED ALONG THE FRONT...CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO
PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AS IT TURNS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE MOISTURE SHUTS OFF BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK MINIMAL RIGHT NOW AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE
PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS TOWARD THE END AS ANOTHER SURGE
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  38  58  36 /   0   0  50  60
CAMDEN AR         65  43  66  45 /   0   0  50  60
HARRISON AR       60  37  53  31 /   0  10  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  41  63  42 /   0   0  50  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  41  63  42 /   0   0  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     63  43  67  46 /   0   0  50  50
MOUNT IDA AR      64  41  62  40 /   0   0  50  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  36  54  32 /   0  10  50  50
NEWPORT AR        52  39  59  38 /   0   0  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     62  43  65  44 /   0   0  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  38  60  37 /   0  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         56  39  61  40 /   0   0  50  60
STUTTGART AR      59  42  64  43 /   0   0  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56