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000
FXUS64 KLZK 010518 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1118 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.AVIATION...01/06Z CYCLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY WILL BECOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATRUES AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY DENSE
CIRRUS COVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIING...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MID SOUTH. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY
LATE MORNING MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO THE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SUBSTANTIAL SRLY
FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE. BY THU...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH FLOW OVER AR REMAINING FROM THE SW ALOFT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED ALONG AND IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY THU INTO FRI. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP WITH THIS
SETUP AS ONLY SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS
COULD LEAD TO AREAS IN AND AROUND THE STATE SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS COMING WEEK. BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT
HOWEVER...THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND HOW
MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA...WITH THE RETURN TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THE QUESTIONS THEN BECOME: HOW
SOON DOES THIS COLD AIR FILTER INTO AR?...AND WILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
BE IN PLACE WHEN THE COLD AIR MASS ARRIVES? WHILE IT DOES SEEM THAT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WX WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN AR...THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF
WINTER WX REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THIS EVENT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS IN THE COMING DAYS
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57