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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241047 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES. THESE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE STATE FOR WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WITH THE LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM NOW WELL TO THE EAST...THE AREA
WILL RECEIVE A WELL DESERVED...ALBEIT SHORT...RESPITE FROM OUR
RECENT STRETCH OF WINTER WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH YET ANOTHER
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND THE THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. NAM SOLUTION HAS
PERFORMED WELL WITH THE LAST TWO WINTER WEATHER EVENTS AND WILL
HAVE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN ITS DIRECTION. ONE OTHER THING TO ADD
IS THE NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH WITH EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN AND THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A DRY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE NATION WILL KEEP THE AREA WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL BE KEY
TO PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. CURRENT THINKING WOULD PLACE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BEING ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE AN ALL SNOW EVENT
WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WOULD BE FROM ARKADELPHIA TO STUTTGART TO DUMAS AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO CAMDEN. IF NAM MODEL CONTINUES ITS TREND...THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTH. FOR NOW A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BUT NONE SEEM OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT BUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL
BELOW NORMAL AND GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDERCUT ESPECIALLY
WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWRLY OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIMITED AT
FIRST...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST/SW...THEN MOVES TOWARDS THE STATE. INITIALLY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE FOR SAT AS
A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUN AND MON...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. AS A RESULT...MOST PRECIP FOR SUN AND MON
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID...WITH EVEN SOME TSRA POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...WITH
MAYBE A WINTRY MIX MON NIGHT AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  25  39  25 /  10  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         39  31  37  26 /  10  30  80  20
HARRISON AR       38  23  43  24 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    39  28  37  26 /  10  20  60  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  28  36  26 /  10  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     36  30  35  25 /  10  20  80  20
MOUNT IDA AR      38  26  39  25 /  10  20  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  39  23  42  24 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        37  25  38  25 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     37  29  34  25 /  10  20  70  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  26  41  26 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         38  26  37  25 /  10  10  30  20
STUTTGART AR      37  28  35  25 /  10  10  60  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62