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000
FXUS64 KLZK 041159 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR AT KPBF AND KLLQ THIS MORNING. THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH MID MORNING AND GRADUALLY BREAK UP BY NOON. THE AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE N TO NE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING NE TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS REMAINING
SOME 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS EVEN MORE SO.

A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE LOWER
48 TODAY...BUT IT WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
REMAIN HESITANT ON GENERATING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT
CROSS ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT...SO DO NOT
EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS. HOWEVER...DID STICK
WITH 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THE MODELS WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MOST
LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT AND WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WED AND THU...THERE
WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A RANGE FROM SNOW/SLEET IN THE NORTH...TO FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH WITH THIS SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY MAY END UP
BEING TOO HIGH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND/OR PRECIPITATION. BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY AND A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO FRIDAY SO CHOSE AN
OPTIMISTIC OF MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY
50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WILL BE SEEN...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH AR AND PUSH
SOUTH OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
WITH IT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WHILE ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS DO HOLD SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AR IN THE MORNING WITH A
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE SYSTEM MOVING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AND WILL
KEEP THIS FOR NOW. THEN DRYING OUT THE REST OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY.
EURO DOES BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAIN FASTER THAN THE GFS ON MONDAY
AND CURRENT FORECAST GOING MORE WITH EURO. A CHANCE OF RAIN MAY ALSO
HOLD INTO TUESDAY. CERTAINTY IS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...A COOL
DOWN SUNDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  15  39  28 /   0  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         42  26  50  33 /   0  10  10  30
HARRISON AR       39  20  42  26 /   0  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  22  45  31 /   0  10  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  33  20  41  31 /   0  10  10  30
MONTICELLO AR     37  25  48  33 /   0  10  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      43  21  46  29 /   0  10  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  39  18  43  26 /   0  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        31  14  36  28 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     32  21  42  32 /   0  10  10  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  19  44  29 /   0  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         29  15  38  29 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      31  18  38  31 /   0  10  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59