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000
FXUS64 KLZK 191958
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM REALLY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER WEAK...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
ARKANSAS. THE RESULT IS THAT AN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH MUCH OF TENNESSEE AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
CLOUDS WERE A LITTLE THINNER TODAY WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE
LACK OF RAINFALL HAS YIELDED WARMER TEMPERATURES. READINGS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH WHERE
CLOUDS ARE THICKEST...TO THE LOW 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WHERE CLOUD COVER IS REALLY THIN.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TOMORROW ARE VERY TRICKY. WITH NO REAL
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED...CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN STICK
AROUND AND WREAK HAVOC ON HIGH TEMPS. OF COURSE THEY COULD ALSO
BURN AWAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND. GIVEN THERE
IS MUCH MORE THINNING OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY AND IT IS NOTABLY WARMER...HAVE STUCK WITH AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST THAT REFLECTS ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGHS. BUT
AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...HAVE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST
TOMORROW AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY SUCH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SHOW UP ACROSS THE STATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH LOW
90S EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP THE LID ON CONVECTION
LOCALLY...AND STEER ANY SYSTEMS BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR NORTH ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP INTO ARKANSAS THURSDAY. INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE HIGH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  86  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         65  90  69  92 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       62  86  66  89 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  88  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  88  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     66  89  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      64  87  67  91 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  87  66  90 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        64  87  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     65  88  70  91 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  88  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         64  87  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      65  87  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...51