Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 171759 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1259 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017
Updated for 18Z Aviation.
MVFR conditions will continue through much of the period as a cold
front moves through the state overnight. Scattered showers and an
isolated thunderstorm will develop along this front as it moves
through the area. The front will enter Arkansas around 9pm and
reach southern Arkansas by sunrise. Conditions may briefly turn
IFR as thunderstorms move southward across terminals and winds
will swiftly shift from southwesterly to northerly.
For much of the state, after the cold front moves across the
terminals, ceilings will lift before completely clearing out
soon-after. The exception will be southern Arkansas, where the
front is expected to stall.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 654 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
Widespread cloud cover was noted acrs Arkansas durg the overnight
hrs. Low lvl moisture contd to sloly incrs fm the W thanks to a
persistent SELY breeze. Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle thru
early mrng hours. Temps wl hold fairly steady thru the early mrng
Meanwhile, a cold front is still fcst to sloly apch NRN AR late
today. Will cont to mention small rain chcs today, with the highest
POPS noted ovr the NRN counties. The front wl eventually shift SWD
thru the FA tngt into Sat, with good chances of showers and a few
storms expected along the boundary.
There wl be lingering rain chcs ovr SRN AR early on Sat as the front
works S of AR and stalls out. Drier air wl advect into the region as
a weak rdg of high pres blds briefly into AR.
Long Term...Sunday Through Thursday
The long term period looks pretty active, despite model agreement
not being the best. Sunday and Monday look warm and, for the most
part, dry as a frontal boundary that moved into Arkansas on Saturday
moves back north on Sunday. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80
degrees in the warmest spots in west-central to southern Arkansas.
Another frontal boundary will move into the region sometime late
Monday night but agreement on timing and placement is not high.
Boundary movement will be slow and it will eventually stall over
northern Louisiana late Tue night. Expect chances for rainfall to
linger over much of the forecast area from Monday night through
Wednesday morning as the front acts as a focus for showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts do not look overly
impressive, so the concerns for flooding due to extended periods of
rainfall are low at this time.
Thursday into Friday next week could be interesting. A strong upper
trough will come onshore out west Wednesday night and will eject
into the plains on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms in Arkansas
appear likely as this trough nears Arkansas, but exactly when
depends on which model solution ends up being true. The GFS is
quicker, with a closed upper low in the central plains and
showers/thunderstorms becoming widespread overnight Thursday. The
ECMWF is slower, with an open wave over the upper midwest and
convection across the state on Friday as opposed to Thursday night.
In any case, it is something to watch as models have been showing a
potent system on that Thu/Fri timeframe now for a couple of days.
And the environment looks to be a fairly healthy one for strong
storms. But as always, the devil is in the details and only time
will allow those details to become more clear and reveal how much of
a threat, if any, exists for severe storms.