Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 192300
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Upper level high pressure will dominate through the period with
widespread VFR conditions expected. The exception will be around
sunrise when brief MVFR conditions due to fog are expected. While
a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm can not be excluded, the
chances are too low to include in the terminals. Winds will
remain from the south to southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night

Warm and humid conditions remain the primary story across the LZK
CWA this afternoon...with above normal temps expected through the
short term period. Upper level ridging will restrengthen across the
state starting today...keeping temps in the 80s to mid 90s for
highs...and lows in the 60s and 70s. Precip chances will remain
limited...though still some potential each afternoon for diurnally
driven isolated convection. The overall threat for seeing SVR WX
will also remain very limited...but if storms were to form...an
isolated strong storm may be seen given the warm and humid
conditions. Expect this overall trend to continue into the long term
period.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

A fairly quiet weather pattern for the LZK CWA will continue
throughout the long term period. Models are in very good agreement
with the longwave pattern. Deep troughing over the western CONUS
will persist with significant downstream ridging. With the surface
high located to the east/northeast, the best of convection will be
along the southern and, eventually, western periphery of the CWA.
PWATS across the region will be at or above normal, with values
ranging from 1.3 to 2+ inches over the entire period.

A weak upper low will retrograde from the Carolinas and move over
the northern Gulf Coast. Given high PWATS and diurnal heating, even
the slight DPVA/upper lift may be enough to generate convection. Due
to this, highest POPs in the grids will be across the south.

Per usual for the GFS this summer, the model advertises temperatures
much too warm(~3-6 degrees F) in the heavily-forested areas of the
state. Have followed a blend rather closely, which seems to mitigate
this issue fairly well this time around.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56


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