Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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274
FXUS64 KLZK 151616 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1015 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Updates have been driven by the line of
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ESE, associated with the
upper lift as it moves through the region. The cold front was well
behind the front and at 10 am was getting close to far NW AR. The
main rain chances will be with the lift, while much lower chances
with the cold front. Winds will shift to the west then northwest to
north with the cold front through the afternoon and this evening.
Lower clouds were also associated with the convection area and to
the front. Clouds will gradually break behind the front as the
surface high pressure filters in over northern AR later. Highs will
be a bit below normal today over the north to northeast, while near
normal ahead of the front. Late morning update will fine tune rain
chances with the area as it moves ESE. Lows tonight will be from the
30s north, the 40s central, and to around 50 south. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 553 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/
.AVIATION...

Convection conts to expand in coverage acrs NWRN AR this mrng
ahead of a CDFNT. VFR/MVFR conds wl prevail ovr NRN AR this mrng,
with OCNL IFR conds behind the FROPA thru midday. VFR conds wl
return thereafter as drier air moves in. This trend is expected
further to the S as the CDFNT pushes thru the rest of AR by this
evening. The FNT wl stall S of AR tngt, with MVFR CIGS lingering
over SRN AR thru the rest of the PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night

Plenty of clouds noted across AR this mrng as we rmn between weather
systems. High pres was situated along the Appalachians, with
developing low pres ovr SW OK. The resulting S/SE wind flow ovr the
region was allowing for low lvl RH to slowly return, esp over WRN
AR. Early mrng temps were mainly in the 50s.

NWLY flow aloft is fcst to bring a series of upr lvl impulses thru
the region today and early tngt. At the SFC, an assocd CDFNT is fcst
to enter NW AR arnd midday, then progress to the SE thru AR later
today/early tngt.

Scattered to numerous showers wl cont to form and expand this mrng
acrs the N half of AR, as the first upr impulse and front apchs.
Activity wl work SWD later today ahead of the Sfc bndry, but areal
coverage wl become more scattered heading into this aftn as upr
support shifts away fm the area. Kept a mention of isolated thunder
in the fcst today, although available instability wl be limited.

Lingering small rain chances wl stay in the fcst early tngt as the
aforementioned fntl bndry shifts S of AR and stalls. Weak area of
SFC high pres wl bld into the FA later tngt and Thu, with cooler and
drier air settling into much of AR. The SFC high wl shift E of the
region late Thu/Thu night, allowing the stalled fnt to begin
returning NWD as a warm fnt as a new storm sys organizes in the
Plains. Increasing WAA pattern wl result in small rain chances
mainly for WRN AR.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday

Winds will increase on Friday, as developing low pressure drags a
front into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the front.

There was a concern at one point for the possibility of severe
thunderstorms. However, it looks as though the front will be moving
through in the late night hours Friday and early morning hours
Saturday. Also working against it will be the lack of deep moisture
return ahead of the front, and the primary upper support associated
with the system will be well north of the area. So, while an
isolated strong storm won`t be out of the question, severe storms
appear less likely.

Front will move east of the area during the day Saturday. Northwest
flow will send cold high pressure into the region by Sunday, with
highs in most areas staying in the 50s. High pressure will move east
early in the week next week, with another front approaching the
region by mid-week.

It does appear that, behind this front, there will be a more
significant push of colder air around Thanksgiving.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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