Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201753 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AND IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MID MORNING UPDATE LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST TO CENTRAL AR...WHILE
THE HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RADAR TRENDS ARE TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE CWA BY NOON...THEN SHORT RANGE MODELS ONLY SHOW LOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE STATE THE REST OF TODAY. UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS EAST AND THE COLD FRONT IS TOTALLY THROUGH AR...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SOME CHANCES OF RAIN...ISOLATED THUNDER...IN THE FORECAST. AT
MID MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SW MO...WITH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN OK. WILL SEE IT GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH AR TODAY
TO THIS EVENING...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LATER THIS EVENING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN AR...BUT
LOCATION WILL BE A BIT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT GOES.
AT SOME POINT OVER SOUTHERN AR THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
PARALLEL AND BOUNDARY WILL STALL...MORE LIKELY NEAR THE AR AND LA
STATE LINE. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS...TEMPS AND WINDS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HRRR...ARW...NMM HAVE ALL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND DO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY THE HRRR COMPLETELY DRIES THINGS
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE STATE BY 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH AND REMAIN ACROSS LOUISIANA. FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BRIEFLY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP ON
FRIDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODEL DATA THIS MRNG CONT TO INDC AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL PERSIST
ACRS THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPR RDG WL SET
UP OVR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...RESULTING IN A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS
AR. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WL TRACK NEWD AND BRING CONTD CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CAT FOR NOW AS TIMING OF
EACH SHRTWV WL RMN DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WL ALSO BE A CONCERN THRU THE PD...ALONG WITH THE CONTD THREAT OF
FLOODING.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.