Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS BLDG INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS ACRS THE FA RANGED FM THE UPR 40S
TO THE UPR 50S. LOCALIZED FOG WL BE POSSIBLE THRU DAYBREAK IN A FEW
SHELTERED AREAS.

BENIGN WX WL CONT THRU THE PD AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS AR. DRY
AND WARM CONDS WL BE NOTED TODAY AND SUN AS AN UPR RDG WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS WELL. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCRS IN LOW LVL MOISTURE HEADING INTO SUN
AND SUN NGT...AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E OF AR AND SLY WINDS RETURN.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
PLAINS...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE DEGREE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THINGS CAN DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AS IT HITS NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HONESTLY...THE WAY THINGS ARE LINING
UP...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THEN TOO. GUESS
WE WILL SEE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...57



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