Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210530 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME AREAS
OF MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AT OR NEAR
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AFTER SUNRISE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING E TO SE
AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER AND THUS WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEFT SO
TIME WILL TELL. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT...THOUGH
UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THE TEMP FORECASTS
THAT BOTH THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...AND MYSELF IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES...WERE STILL TOO HIGH IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS. IN THAT LIGHT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. STILL...I
CANNOT HELP BUT TO BE LEFT WONDERING IF THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
TOO HIGH. CLOUD COVER WAS LESS THICK TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...AND
WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER...BUT IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH. HAVE TAKEN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST PLUS 4 TO 6 DEGREES APPROACH. EXPECT WE WILL
SEE SOME HIGHS TICK PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK TOMORROW. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT IN GENERAL PLACES
ALONG OR TO THE WEST OF THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR WILL STAND A
CHANCE OF HITTING 90 TOMORROW. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AND
HIGHS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND TOMORROW...DRIVING THE WARMING
TREND ACROSS ARKANSAS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
WILL EVENTUALLY TOP THE RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT TO THE WEST AS IT
DIPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. BY LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING ANOTHER FRONT...NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT USHERED IN THIS UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO NRN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WED AS A RESULT. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEM ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE NRN
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON WED...AND ALSO
HOW FAR WEST THE GULF COAST DISTURBANCE WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE IT
COULD BE FAR ENOUGH WEST SUCH THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTH TO YIELD SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN SE ARKANSAS WED EVENING.
DID GO AHEAD AND CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF CAMDEN...FORDYCE...PINE
BLUFF...AND DE WITT WITH SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER THE NRN DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THIS COULD AFFECT AREAS IN THE MID SOUTH
BY LATE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY...AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND AN MCS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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