Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 041131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
531 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
Low clouds continue across the area this morning. The fog is now
most prevalent in the north. More rain and fog is on the way from
Oklahoma and Texas. Expect rain to spread across the area this
morning. Drier air will filter in this afternoon and decrease rain
chances. Low clouds and fog will form again overnight. MVFR and
IFR conditions will dominate the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
The latest weather map shows an upper trough over the Plains and a
closed low over Mexico. The upper trough will move east today and
tonight to the east coast. The upper low slowly moves northeast
Sunday night and Monday and will be in southern Arkansas Monday
Drizzle and fog continues this morning. Radar images show more
rain headed this way from Oklahoma and Texas. The moisture is
streaming northeast with the help of the low pressure system over
Mexico. Models are in agreement that some drier air will work
across the state later today and tonight. This will decrease rain
chances. Moisture then returns on Monday and rain chances will
increase from south to north. Will keep the isolated thunderstorms
mentioned through the day on Monday as a surface low moves through
Louisiana, introducing some instability in our area. Showers will
continue Monday night, tapering off in the west late.
High temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s are expected today and
Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s are anticipated for tonight
and Monday night.
LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Storm system wl be departing the region on Tue, with drier air
working into the FA. Dry conds wl cont into early Wed in advance of
the advertised arctic CDFNT that wl sweep thru AR later Wed and
early Wed night. ECMWF conts to the be the slower model regarding
the timing of the FROPA and wl cont to stay closer to the
progressive GFS/GEM solutions.
All the models cont to indc enough moisture/lift available to
justify CHC POPS ahead of the fnt on Wed. Did mention a lgt rain/
snow mix acrs parts of NRN and WRN AR early Wed night as model data
show some lingering post-fntl moisture. Precip chcs end quickly
later Wed ngt as drier and colder air advects into the FA.
Arctic high pres wl prevail acrs the region for the remainder of the
week. Expect blustery conds on Thu, thanks for breezy NWLY winds and
highs only in the 30s to lower 40s. The high center wl pass ovr the
FA on Fri before shifting EWD by Sat. A new storm sys wl apch fm the
W on Sat, with an incrs in clouds expected.