Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 240550 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AR...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR OVERNIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHRO AND KBPK TOWARD
TUESDAY MORNING. MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN AR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE TO SW OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED FROM THE
SE TO SW AT 8 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

.UPDATE...

FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT VCNTY OF THE MO BRDR THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONT TO INDC A FEW SHOWERS COULD SKIRT NRN AR
LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE MRNG AS A WEAK UPR IMPULSE TRACKS EWD THRU
MO. OPTED TO ADD A SLGT CHC POP OVR FAR N-CNTRL AR TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE TRENDS. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST ADJUSTED HRLY
TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TEMP TRENDS ACRS THE FA. ALL PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT AND POSTED. /44/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ABOVE NORMAL...HELPING TO BRING A MORE
SPRINGLIKE FEEL TO STATE. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE FORECAST QUITE YET.

COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING ARKANSAS.
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI...AND MAY
TRAIL INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...BUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ARKANSAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE SURFACE LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN LIFT NORTH...WHICH IS THE USUAL SPRING
PATTERN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE NAM IS
THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THIS COULD SET UP A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT.

WITH THE QUICKER SOLUTION...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH OFFICE WEBPAGE AND THE HWO...AS THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST SEVERE EVENT IN OUR AREA THIS YEAR.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR GRADIENT WINDS...WITH STRONG PRESSURE
CHANGES BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.

THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM...AND WILL IMPACT ANY VEGETATION/TENDER
PLANTS ALREADY GROWING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ARKANSAS WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPILL
IN UNDER THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE AS WELL. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER
TO MID 30S SEEN ELSEWHERE. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING NOTED
BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

NWLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION IN THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA COULD
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES. WILL NOT MENTION MUCH IN THE WAY
OF POPS ATTM...BUT IT MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OTHERWISE...SOME PRECIP MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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