Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 172239
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Front currently stretches roughly along I-44 and will continue to
make slow southward progress tonight before becoming stationary
south of the terminals. VFR conditions will prevail for
BVO/TUL/RVS through the period, with a return of MVFR ceilings
most likely to occur at MLC/FSM due to the later frontal passage.
XNA/FYV/ROG should see at least some tempo MVFR ceilings mainly
mid to late this evening. Precip potential looking less likely
along and south of the front so no mention of showers or
thunderstorms appear necessary in any of the terminals.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017/
Current WV imagery and H5 heights show moderate ridge over the
western US with trough digging into the upper midwest. At the
surface, a weak cold front is working its way into northern OK and
NW AR. A few rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or
two will be possible this evening, primarily across the higher
terrain of NW Arkansas, as the front moves through. Warm air
advection ahead of the cold front has allowed temperatures to climb
into the mid and upper 70s for much of OK and mid to upper 60s
across western AR, despite a decent cloud deck all day. Temperatures
behind the front are pretty mild and Saturday high temperatures
should only see a drop of a few degrees. Temperatures will quickly
rebound by Sunday with highs reaching the low 80s. Cold front looks
to stall along the Red River Valley before moving northwards as a
warm front Sunday into Monday.
Drier air will also move in behind the front with heightened fire
concerns Saturday north of the front. Winds will remain light,
however, and help limit overall fire spread potential. Fire concerns
will continue into Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s combined
with gusty south winds and lower relative humidity values.
A fast moving shortwave trough moving out of the Rockies will early
next week will bring another chance for precipitation as the surface
front approaches the CWA Monday/Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will
follow this front but this will again be short-lived as warm air
advection increases ahead of a more significant system the latter
half of the week. While it is still a good ways off, the current
extended model track looks favorable for thunderstorms, with the
potential for severe. The current GFS still favors the quicker,
deeper system with the EC coming in much slower and less aggressive.
Regardless, the system bears watching.