Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14






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