Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 111129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING MVFR
CEILINGS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. SEVERAL MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE
INDICATION THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT
PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MUCH MORE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST AS WARM AS
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SATURDAY DESPITE THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS STORMS NEAR THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO
SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINS.

A SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW A LIGHT
FREEZE IN SOME PLACES BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A DRIER
SOLUTION THURSDAY MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT ECMWF SO THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER MONDAY.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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