Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 172021
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast challenge in the short term will be focused on thunderstorm
chances as one or more complexes could impact parts of the area
through Friday night. Highest overall chance still appears to be
late Friday as yet another strong wave moves across northern
states and drives boundary south toward the area. Instability and
deep layer shear both support at least some severe weather
potential during this time frame, along with some heavy rain and
attendant flash flood potential, given the wet conditions of late.

Currently, effective frontal zone remains to our south in wake of
overnight storms last night. Moisture continues to return north
this afternoon across high plains of Texas, and potential later
this evening of a storm complex developing in the OK/TX panhandle
and moving east overnight, possibly reaching northeast OK by early
Friday morning, albeit in a very weakened state. Effective
boundary should also begin to lift north some Friday with axis of
high instability located from southeast into central OK. Model
guidance predictably struggling with placement and timing of most
significant precip in this regime. Some high res model guidance
remains fairly bullish in breaking out afternoon convection within
this axis, however more likely scenario is for storms to
ultimately become more focused along boundary to our north late in
the day Friday and push southeast overnight. As mentioned, flash
flood potential will exist where heaviest rain falls, but at this
point confidence is much too low to consider highlights.

Overall chances of storms will decrease through the weekend as
ridging aloft builds over the southern plains in a pattern more
typical of the time of year. Given the recent rainfall, expect dew
points to remain quite high and heat headlines will be possible
perhaps as early as Saturday afternoon. The hot weather and low
precip chance continue through around mid-week when trough deepens
again in the Great Lakes vicinity and potentially drives another
front toward the area Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  73  94 /  10  30  40  10
FSM   72  92  74  93 /  10  20  40  20
MLC   71  92  75  95 /  10  30  30  20
BVO   62  89  70  93 /  10  30  40  10
FYV   62  87  70  89 /  10  20  40  20
BYV   61  89  69  90 /  10  20  40  20
MKO   69  90  73  92 /  10  30  40  20
MIO   62  89  70  91 /  10  20  40  10
F10   71  91  73  95 /  10  30  40  10
HHW   74  92  75  95 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....14



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