Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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