Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 230153
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
853 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
Ongoing thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles making slow
eastward progress. The expectation continues that much of this
will diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma, with perhaps only
areas along and west of Highway 75 seeing any remnants. Of this
area, it appears that parts of southeast Oklahoma would be the
most favored at this point, given recent data from the HRRR and
current location of the most developed area of convection. Have
made a few minor tweaks to the POPs after 06Z to account for this
thinking, as well as minor changes to the Sky grids to spread
cloud cover into northwest Arkansas faster. Updated forecast
products coming soon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible for eastern OK TAF sites late tonight
and into Monday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
The upper ridge is shifting off to the east and we will be under
the influence of the western U.S. trough for at least the next
week or so. The dryline will remain well to our west for most of
the week, but we will be at risk of seeing at least the remnants
of any storms that develop well to our west making it far enough
east to affect us. Weak impulses moving out of the western trough
may also trigger scattered showers and storms within our forecast
area just about any day this week. Instability will be sufficient
for severe storms, especially from Tuesday on.
The main upper system will finally lift northeast into the central
Plains by Friday, perhaps 12 hours or so sooner than it appeared
at this time yesterday. Thus Friday will likely see the greatest
precipitation coverage, and greatest severe weather risk, of the
Even after this system lifts out, another trough develops near the
West Coast, and the dryline gets left behind to our west, so storm
chances will continue through next weekend, as will the warm and
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.