Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 250959
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY PASSING FAR WEST TX WITH
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL / EAST TX. SFC
REPORTS SHOW A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN / SLEET ONGOING WITH TEMPS
JUST AROUND FREEZING BENEATH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECTATION
REMAIN THAT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN INITIAL
ONSET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TOWARD
ALL SNOW AS THE STRONGER LIFT APPROACHES. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SFC
TEMPS TO REMAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING WITH A SLOW TREND UPWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE AREAS NEAREST THE RED RIVER AND MAKE THE ASSUMPTION
THAT SNOW RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS. PRECIP WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY MELTING
BEFORE SUNSET. ELSEWHERE...MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED BY A
SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS W/ 30-40MPH GUSTS LIKELY.

THE RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EMBRACE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY W/ A BIT OF OF WARMING ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS ONE OF FAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SOME DEGREE OF COLD LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. THE RESULTANT FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP
CHANCES DURING MUCH OF THE TIMEFRAME...WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE OF
EITHER A COLD RAIN OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCATIONS DEPENDING EXACTLY HOW LOW LEVEL TEMPS RESPOND. A BRIEF
WARM UP LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  22  30  12 /   0  10  10   0
FSM   51  26  35  17 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   47  24  32  15 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   54  19  29   8 /   0  10  10   0
FYV   50  21  29   9 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   48  21  28   8 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   48  22  31  12 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   51  21  27   8 /   0  20  10  10
F10   51  22  31  13 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   38  22  36  20 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




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