Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 230518
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS
IN THE 5-10 THOUSAND FEET RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

UPDATE...

POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW...

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE DATA...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP...SUGGEST
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE WARM
CONVEYOR PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST...AND THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL OUT AROUND THE BIG BEND REGION AND IS NOT GAINING ANY
LATITUDE. HAVE THUS PULLED BACK ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. THE 18Z
GFS IS THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT HAS PRECIP NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...SO I HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES OR LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS
IN THE 5-10 THOUSAND FEET RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. RELATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THIS AREA FALLING FROM NEAR 40 THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LOW TO
MID 30S TONIGHT... SOME SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER SUSTAINED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY... LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. DAILY MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
EVENTUALLY RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FROM SUNDAY ON... AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA... WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE... WHILE SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  49  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   35  48  29  54 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   33  48  29  56 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   25  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  45  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   29  45  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  47  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   27  47  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   32  48  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   34  49  29  57 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.