Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 051652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1052 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although an
increase in mid cloud will occur this evening, followed by low
clouds after midnight. Winds will shift from a southerly direction
to west and northwest late in the period after a cold frontal
passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
High clouds over most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
will gradually transition east through the day, with more low and
mid clouds expected to move in from the northwest as the upper low
approaches later tonight. Have increased sky grids in most areas
to account for the high clouds, with some decreasing trend in the
early afternoon and another increase toward the evening and
overnight. Other weather elements appear on track, with high
temperatures today likely to be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. Updated forecast already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will lower for the latter portion of the TAF period...however VFR
categories for all TAF elements are expected through the entire period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22


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