Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 140136
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
736 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated PV anomaly was embedded within strong NW flow over
South Dakota and Nebraska. A secondary anomaly was over southwest
Saskatchewan. The lead impulse will drop down into the region
after midnight tonight, and could bring some scattered flurries
and possibly a light dusting near the KS and MO borders. The
secondary system arrives during the first part of the day Sunday.
The latest short term hi-res guidance suggests that potential for
accumulating snow will be greater with the second stronger system,
with the best chances across far NE OK into far NW AR. There will
not be much moisture to work with /pwats less than 0.5"/, but snow
ratios will be higher with the cold temps aloft. The main
adjustment made was to expand PoPs to the west and south and raise
them some late tonight into Sunday morning. Given uncertainties as
to whether this light snow will accumulate on roadways and cause
issues, will hold off on an advisory at this time. Updated
products have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 543 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mid-level clouds with an upper-level disturbance dropping south
through the Plains will overspread much of the area early tonight.
A band or two of light snow should develop after Midnight
tonight in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Right now it appears KXNA, KFYV, and KROG have the better
chances of seeing a period of lower clouds and visibilities.

This disturbance will exit the area quickly tomorrow morning with
VFR conditions in its wake.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another chilly day is well underway across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as high pressure prevails. We will be looking at
a brief shot at light snow/snow flurries late Tonight and into
Sunday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
as a disturbance embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft sweeps
through the area. Minor accumulations will be possible during this
brief period that could create some slick spots on roadways. Any
snow that does fall shouldn`t last long as temperatures expected
to be warmer on Sunday Afternoon than they have been for the past couple
of days with highs ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The next arctic cold front is set to move through eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas late Sunday night into Monday with a narrow
band of precipitation expected behind the front. The majority of the
precipitation behind the front is expected to fall in the form of snow.
However, there could be a wintry mix of precipitation across extreme
southeast Oklahoma Monday Afternoon. Rain could also proceed the
frontal passage across southeast Oklahoma as well. The precipitation
is expected to exit the area by Tuesday morning. Snowfall amounts are
currently forecast to be less than an inch and more likely in the one-
half inch range. Again this could cause some slick spots on area
roadways.

Temperatures will end up being the big story behind the cold front
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with low temperatures
Tuesday morning expected to be in the single digits to teens across
the area with wind chill values below zero across a good portion of
the region. Wind chill headlines will more than likely be needed during
this time-frame. Temperatures will actually be colder Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning as the arctic high settles over the area. However, windchill values
are not expected to be quite as bad as the winds will be lighter.

A warm up will ensue Thursday and continue into the weekend as the surface
high shifts to the east of the area. Have kept the late week portion of the
forecast dry as models continue to struggle with the handling of a mid-level
shortwave set to move across the Central to Southern Plains mid-late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   22  45  29  35 /  10  20   0  10
FSM   23  42  28  46 /  10  20   0  20
MLC   23  45  31  46 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   21  44  28  30 /  30  30   0  20
FYV   19  36  29  38 /  20  30   0  20
BYV   18  35  27  35 /  20  40   0  20
MKO   21  43  29  40 /  10  20   0  10
MIO   19  40  27  29 /  30  40   0  30
F10   22  45  30  40 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   24  44  30  49 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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