Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  61  81  65 /  60  70  10  50
FSM   81  64  81  66 /  50 100  20  40
MLC   78  62  80  67 /  80  80  20  60
BVO   81  59  80  62 /  30  50  10  40
FYV   78  61  78  62 /  30 100  20  30
BYV   80  61  79  63 /  30 100  30  30
MKO   78  61  80  65 /  60  90  20  50
MIO   79  61  79  62 /  30  70  20  50
F10   78  60  80  65 /  70  80  20  60
HHW   78  64  82  68 /  80  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02




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