Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 152345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.