Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VLIFR cigs and IFR vsbys at KFYV this morning is expected to
remain brief with VFR conditions returning by 13z-14z MVFR vsbys
at KMLC should follow suit as well along with VFR cigs scattering
out. VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period...with brief MVFR cigs possible across the SE OK and AR
sites at the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
after 06z across NE OK and NW AR, however coverage will remain too
limited for any TAF mention at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

Cold front currently located just north of I-40 this morning with
a few lingering showers over west-central Arkansas. Front will
continue pushing south this morning before stalling over the
ARKLATX region this afternoon.

Warm front will begin to quickly lift back north tonight with the
potential for a few elevated showers/thunderstorms across far
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas late tonight into Sunday
morning. Elevated instability/shear would support a marginally
severe hail threat if storms develop but overall thunderstorm
coverage should remain limited.

Unseasonably warm conditions expected both Sunday and Monday as
a strong upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains. High
temperatures in the mid 80s will be likely both afternoons in
many areas, which will be at least 20 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

Another cold front will move into the region on Tuesday into
Tuesday night with scattered showers and thunderstorm developing
along and north of boundary. Low precipitation chances will
continue Wednesday as front stalls then begins to lift back north
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Operational models in relatively good agreement with moving
strong upper trough out of the desert southwest and into the
region on Friday with showers and thunderstorms likely, including
the threat for severe weather. Overall threats, including specific
timing, will continue to be refined in the next several days.




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