Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 160440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT LIES NEAR I-44 THIS EVENING. ALSO SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-40. MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
WHAT UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS IS VERY WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...REST OF FORECAST OKAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




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