Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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777
FXUS64 KTSA 282329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Given the uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage over E OK/NW AR,
the 00Z TAFs have gone more conservative, pulling TEMPOs from the
forecast...for now. VCTS was used at each of the sites on the most
favored time window for storms at each given location. TAF
amendments can be made down the road if and when storm timing at a
particular terminal is more clear. Aside from some patchy MVFR
cigs over in NW AR early, expect mainly VFR conditions outside of
any thunderstorms thru the period. A cold front will cause a wind
shift from SW to NW during the overnight from N to S across the
area. Wind gusts will exceed 15 kts at times, both ahead of and
behind the front.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns are severe weather tonight into early Wed morning.
Latest surface mesoanalysis shows dryline in west central Oklahoma
with deepening low pressure in SE CO while a cold front extends
northeast into KS. Abundant cloud cover has held down
heating...confining us to low to mid 70s for most areas as of mid
afternoon. The exception has been western Arkansas and SE OK where
temps are in the upper 70s to 80. Latest upper air data from 20z
special SGF sounding shows an uncapped airmass...and storms are
developing from far NW Arkansas thru south central MO. A tornado
watch has been issued across MO/IL to our northeast. The 18z
sounding from LZK shows a strong capping inversion. The first
attempts at deep convection were across Delaware County
earlier...and we now have the first lightning across NW AR this
afternoon.

The cap across our area is weak...but there has been a lack of
surface convergence to get storms going. Highest short term
chances of storms appear to be across NW Arkansas...possibly into
SE Oklahoma. Latest NAM guidance would suggest much of the area
remains dry until the front arrives between 10pm-12am across
northeast Oklahoma...and even then this model keeps the storms
across AR. The 12z ECMWF suggests that there could be isolated
cells across eastern OK this afternoon and that a broken line of
storms will develop along and ahead of the front in NE Oklahoma
affecting NW AR/SE OK after midnight. The other short term higher
resolution models all seem to favor SE Oklahoma around 03z- 06z.

Given favorable instability and wind profiles...severe weather
could occur with any storm that forms today and tonight.

Fire weather will be more of a concern tomorrow given that drier
air will work its way in the area. We will have gusty northwest
winds and min RH values below 25 percent. Today...we have had
strong SW winds but RH values have stayed relatively high.

We`ll have a brief cool down tonight and tomorrow but then it
warms up again quickly. Extended looks warm by the weekend with
highs well into the upper 60s and 70s by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  62  30  63 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   50  65  33  64 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   47  62  30  63 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   40  60  25  63 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   45  56  26  58 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   46  56  30  57 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   44  61  30  62 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   42  58  29  59 /  40   0   0   0
F10   43  60  31  63 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   51  64  32  64 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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