Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231634
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP THIS MORNING WAS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. ALSO THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN COLORADO ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE TULSA
FORECAST CWA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES WITH
CONDITIONS OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-20 MPH. THE
WAVE EAST OF THE CWA HAD SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP HAD EXITED. A ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER COULD REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MADISON/CARROLL COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

THIS AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE CWA. GREATER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG/NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE. JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD CREATE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUS...WILL ADD THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OSAGE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 21Z AND PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40+MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES. WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA...THIS COULD LESSEN THE GUSTS SOME
FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SHORT WINDOW FROM ABOUT 21Z-01Z THAT WINDS OF 35-NEAR 40
MPH...WITH AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO OVER 40 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING COULD GUST
UP IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS. THUS...FROM
CURRENT THINKING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NOW.

ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES COULD BECOME BROKEN TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES
OVERHEAD...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LOW 70S
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH MINOR TWEAKS
TO SKY/TEMP GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  35  55  30 /  30  30   0   0
FSM   72  39  56  31 /  20  30   0   0
MLC   70  36  56  31 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   66  34  54  25 /  60  40   0   0
FYV   66  34  49  26 /  20  50  10   0
BYV   66  35  48  28 /  30  60  10   0
MKO   69  35  55  30 /  20  30   0   0
MIO   66  34  50  27 /  60  60  10   0
F10   69  36  56  31 /  20  30   0   0
HHW   72  38  59  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30





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