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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210952
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE  ELEVATED THUNDER FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
RATHER ACTIVE AT 930Z. COOL FRONT FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO LOW IN
WEST TEXAS. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SLOW COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN
AND THUNDER FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE INCLUSION OF
CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES.

THUNDER THREAT FINALLY ENDS THIS EVENING AS H5
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MINIMAL POP RETAINED FROM EARLIER FORECAST FOR
MOIST FLOW WORKING UNDER H5 RIDGE THURSDAY.

ECMWF FORECAST WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH PRECIP.
GFS DRY. LEANED WITH ECMWF OUTCOME FOR CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  56  80  59 /  70  30   0   0
FSM   77  58  81  60 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   77  56  82  61 /  90  50   0  10
BVO   75  54  79  55 /  40  20  10   0
FYV   71  55  77  54 /  90  80   0  10
BYV   74  57  76  54 /  90  80  10  10
MKO   73  55  81  59 /  90  50   0   0
MIO   73  55  77  56 /  60  40  10  10
F10   75  56  81  60 /  90  40   0  10
HHW   79  61  83  63 /  90  60   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21