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000
FXUS64 KTSA 252337
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at area TAF sites. Scattered showers may affect the northeast
Oklahoma TAF sites Tonight. However, impact is expected to be
minimal.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful late June day to finish off the weekend. Lower
dewpoints typically found further west and below to near normal
temperatures have contributed to the nice weekend. A few
scattered showers will approach northern Oklahoma from the
northwest this evening, but little to no accumulation is expected
given dry lower levels. This activity is expected to continue to
decrease as it moves southeast tonight.

A shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow will help to
initiate showers and thunderstorms along a weak front moving
through portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by
Monday night. Northwest flow then begins to break down in response
to northern stream trough digging into BC and a weaker wave
lifting into the PacNorthwest. These troughs will merge as they
cross the northern Rockies and eject out onto the Plains late in
the week. Moisture transport will increase ahead of this system
with dewpoints gradually increasing by mid to late week. Models in
good agreement bringing the front through Friday
evening/overnight with a good chance of accompanying showers and
thunderstorms. The front will then stall and become more diffuse
over the following several days, but there could be several
rounds of precipitation before it washes out.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10