Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /  20   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



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