Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 081114
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low clouds have begun to shift south this morning with only
sct/bkn high clouds. Northerly winds will begin to subside
by late afternoon. VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period with mostly clear skies tonight as surface high pressure
builds over the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold air continues to push south this morning with a few wind
chill readings in the single digits near the Kansas border. Have
been a few reports of drizzle/flurries across southeast OK
overnight but drier air will continue to push south and don not
expect any precip after 12z. Clouds will decrease across the north
later today, but with continued low level cold advection
temperatures will struggle to warm significantly, with 30s for
highs in most areas. Surface high pressure will be centered over
the plains tonight with temperatures in the 10 to 20 degree
range, and possibly a few single digits in normally colder
locations near the Kansas border. Winds will be light and wind
chill will not be an issue...just cold.

Surface high will gradually slide east Friday and especially
Saturday leading to slow moderation in temps. Gusty south winds
will develop Saturday and ultimately begin to transport some low
level moisture north into parts of the area by Saturday night and
Sunday. Moisture depth, or lack thereof, supports mainly drizzle
or very light rain through Sunday morning, with slightly better
chance of showers Sunday afternoon in eastern areas as fast moving
shortwave in strong westerlies moves through the central plains
and slightly better moisture drawn northward. Given the low
amplitude of this wave expect precip to end before temps fall
enough to support any winter precip Sunday night.

The overall upper air pattern for next week remains supportive of
a series of Arctic airmasses to surge into the central and
southern plains, but timing of individual frontal passages remains
very problematic. Appears Tuesday is a likely day for the next
surge of cold air, but exact time of day of the frontal passage
remains uncertain and thus, ensemble forecast temps show a wide
spread in forecast highs. Blended guidance will be followed for
now but errors may be significant. Precip chances with this front
again appear very limited and dry forecast will be kept through
mid-week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12


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