Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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332
FXUS64 KTSA 272341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail until late tonight. A few showers amd
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect the northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas sites overnight. MVFR ceilings will develop
late tonight or early Friday morning, and will persist until early
afternoon before lifting to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Significant heavy rain and flood event on tap for much of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas late in the week and into the weekend.
Flash Flood watch continues for much of the area along and southeast
of Interstate 44. 4 to 8 inches of rain will be common across eastern
Oklahoma and western during this time with amounts around 12 inches
possible in a few locations. The axis of heaviest rain will run from
east-central Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. It must be noted that
the axis of heaviest rain could shift a county or two north or south
and later forecasts should be monitored closely as we get closer to the
event.

Tonight, Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a mid-level shortwave sweeps across
the plains.

On friday, a warm front will spread north to near Interstate 40 as an upper
level low drops to near the Four Corners area. This will result in a persistent
south-southwesterly flow aloft through the weekend. This southwesterly flow
aloft will assure that any surface boundary will only move slowly across the
region and will set up the area for a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain as precipitable water values run well above normal. The axis
of heaviest rain will be highly dependent on where the surface boundary
sets up Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday morning the Surface boundary
will become quasi-stationary from southwest Missouri into south-central Oklahoma.
The showers and thunderstorms will finally taper off on Sunday as the frontal
boundary moves east of the area as the upper level low sweeps out across the
plains.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding, severe weather will be possible
Friday night as the airmass across the region becomes increasingly unstable.
As the storms develop Friday night in the vicinity of the frontal boundary
with the aid of the increasing low level jet, the potential will exist for
some of the storms to be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
concern. While most of the the storms will be elevated in nature, any storm
that becomes rooted in the boundary layer near the frontal boundary will have
the potential to produce a tornado.

After dry weather Monday and Tuesday, the chances of showers and thunderstorms
return mid-week with the approach of the next storm system.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     OKZ049-057-058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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