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000
FXUS64 KTSA 080239
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOW WEAKENING OF
STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHILE STORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE LATTER WOULD
PLACE THEM NEAR NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z...HOWEVER A FAIRLY STRONG
CAP REMAINS EVIDENT ON KSGF SOUNDING SO ODDS OF ANY PRECIP
OVERNIGHT REMAIN SLIM. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING
TO NEAR INTERSTATE 40 BY 00Z. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER
NW AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TULSA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 7 PM AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN NEAR THE
105 DEGREE MARK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVE INTO THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY WORK TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WILL
RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE CONCERN.

THE HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SO...COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR MORE LIKELY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  94  68  90 /  10  20  30  10
FSM   74  96  72  90 /  10  10  30  20
MLC   75  96  73  91 /   0  10  20  20
BVO   73  91  64  90 /  10  20  30  10
FYV   72  91  65  86 /  10  30  40  10
BYV   72  89  65  85 /  10  30  40  10
MKO   74  95  69  89 /  10  20  30  10
MIO   74  90  64  89 /  10  30  30  10
F10   74  95  70  90 /  10  20  20  20
HHW   74  96  74  92 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14