Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 031105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FSM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT THE OTHER NW AR
TERMINALS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY...WITH TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS A
RESULT. A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.