National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 102328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...AND BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KBVO
JUST PRIOR TO 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HELLO SPRINGTIME! SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S IN MUCH OF THE AREA AND SO FAR AT LEAST...WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE VERY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. SFC DEW POINTS ANALYZED IN MID-UPPER 50S OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SURGE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL HELP
RAISE THE RH LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER HOWEVER
AND THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MID
80S LIKELY SW OF TULSA.

STRONG COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE REMAINING AREAS DURING THE EVENING. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WINDS AS DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
POST-FRONTAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH OVER MUCH OF NE OKLAHOMA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM
MIAMI-EUFAULA WEST FROM 00-09Z THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS SHOULD
END A LITTLE BEFORE THAT IN MOST AREAS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY NW ARKANSAS AND FAR
NE OKLAHOMA...WITH A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTORMS IN THE
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.

BRISK AND COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT NOTHING LIKE WE SAW WITH LAST COLD
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT A TREND TOWARD COOLER WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP SUN/MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  83  38  55 /   0  10  10   0
FSM   49  81  44  56 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   55  82  42  56 /   0  10  10   0
BVO   44  82  35  55 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   47  77  38  49 /   0  10  20   0
BYV   51  75  38  50 /   0  10  30   0
MKO   52  81  38  56 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   51  81  36  53 /   0  10  20   0
F10   53  83  39  56 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   53  80  42  57 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
