National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 212024
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures continue well above seasonal normals however notably
drier air has overspread the region helping to limit the heat
index impacts. Similar conditions are expected to continue through
Friday.

Impressive wave currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will
help carve a deep trough across the western CONUS which is
projected to advance slowly eastward. The exact evolution of
closed low within the broader trough remains varied and also the
extent to which the trough becomes removed from the prevailing
westerlies. Despite these uncertainties, a deep moisture plume
will become established downstream of the trough and aid in the
development of widespread precip across the forecast area
beginning late Saturday and more so Sunday through Monday. Largely
meridional flow coupled with deep moist profiles will tend to
favor heavy rain impacts versus severe weather potential.
The current scenario also allows for cooler and drier air to
eventually overspread the region with the downtrend in temps
arriving on Sunday.

The evolution and placement of the upper low will dictate how
long the wet period continues into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   67  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   67  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  88  61  89 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   62  88  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   66  89  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
F10   69  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   66  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07