Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NW ARKANSAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CHANGE-OVER TO SLEET HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR WHICH EXTENDS BACK INTO NE
TEXAS...CAN BE SEEN IN VIS SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA WHICH HAS
DETECTED A STRIKES OVER FAR SE OKLAHOMA. THIS PRECIP BAND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND MUCH OF IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 00Z.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO UPPER TEENS
AND 20S MOST AREAS...WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUN ON
SUNDAY. WARMER STILL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH
FIGURES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ONE AS IT BLASTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR WILL BE LAGGING SOME BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT...BY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS WITH THE FORECAST LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS PACIFIC SYSTEM ROUNDS DEVELOPING LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. FOR NOW THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW QUICK THE
COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THU-SAT TIME FRAME. THE PATTERN DEFINITELY
SUGGESTS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN
EVENT. FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THEY WILL CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   21  43  25  47 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   28  45  28  49 /  30   0   0  10
MLC   25  45  27  51 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   18  41  21  43 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   23  42  24  45 /  30   0   0   0
BYV   24  40  24  45 /  40   0   0  10
MKO   24  43  25  49 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   21  41  23  45 /  10   0   0  10
F10   23  43  26  49 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   29  47  28  53 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14






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