Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018


Next wave of precip moving in rapidly. Elevated instability over
much of the region is fairly low, with the exception over far SE
OK down near the Red River, where a storm has recently
intensified. The surface freezing line is still draped over Pawnee
and Osage counties and possibly western Creek and Okfuskee, so the
advisory was extended thru 20Z for the potential of a light glaze
on elevated surfaces. Updated products have been sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1113 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/


The discussion for the 18Z TAF forecast can be found below.

A continued nearly saturated boundary layer, on the cold side of a
surface front located well to our south, thru the period will
result in poor flight conditions for the vast majority of this TAF
period. Expect IFR or below at most sites to prevail, aside from
a brief period over in NW AR this afternoon. Another round of rain
and isolated storms will sweep across the region this afternoon
and into the early evening. Expect foggy sub-IFR conditions
overnight in the wake of the precip.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 820 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/


Forecast was updated to insert thunder and low end severe
potential down in southeast Oklahoma. See discussion below.


Warm advection is increasing atop the shallow cold air at the
surface over the southern Plains, in response to another ejecting
wave in the SW flow aloft. Storms have erupted over northern
Texas, and they are quickly moving toward southern Oklahoma. The
latest HREF ensemble elevated instability forecast shows an axis
of lower end elevated instability working its way up into
southeast Oklahoma later today, and combined with at least 50 kts
of deep layer shear, there will at least be an isolated marginally
severe hail threat with the storms as they move into southeast

The remainder of the forecast was left intact. PoPs will increase
considerably later today as showers and thunderstorms move across
the region. The current thinking is that temperatures will warm
above freezing by the time the rains move in. May also shave off
some of the winter weather advisory, as the freezing line
continues to progress slowly westward.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 519 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

IFR to LIFR conditions will persist through much of the morning
with cold air mass slowly eroding from the east. A period of
relatively higher ceilings possible over western AR before
additional rain moves into the area this afternoon, by which time
all areas will see temperatures above freezing. Rain will
decrease this evening with IFR to occasional LIFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

Temperatures have remained relatively steady-state overnight with
readings at or just a few degrees below 32F in the advisory area.
Area radars/observations confirm the presence of some freezing
drizzle from portions of central OK into northeast OK, with the
activity lifting to the northeast. Suspect that the shallow cold
air will hang around for several more hours, enough to warrant
extending the winter weather advisory through the morning hours
with temps eventually rising above freezing toward noon.

An upper wave evident near the Big Bend region of TX will lift
northeast today, with showers increasing in coverage later this
afternoon across southeast OK into western AR. The active
southwesterly flow continues into Friday, with another shot of
showers and a few thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Rain chances will continue into Saturday as a strong upper system
ejects across the Rockies and into the Plains, with precipitation
eventually shifting east of the region Saturday evening as the
main surface front drags across. Will hold off on any flood
headlines at this time, although southeastern areas could see
another 1-3 inches during this period.

Quiet weather is shaping up for the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week, with precipitation possibly return by next
Tuesday/Wednesday as the southwesterly upper flow becomes active


TUL   42  36  53  47 /  70  30  40  60
FSM   54  45  58  53 /  80  80  80  80
MLC   44  39  53  51 /  80  50  80  80
BVO   39  33  51  43 /  60  30  20  50
FYV   56  41  56  51 /  70  80  70  80
BYV   51  44  56  51 /  60  90  60  80
MKO   45  38  54  50 /  80  50  70  80
MIO   47  36  53  46 /  60  60  40  70
F10   40  36  51  49 /  80  30  70  80
HHW   48  45  57  55 /  80  70  90  70


OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054-



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