Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 260814
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Convective line, currently over southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this morning is expected to slow/briefly stall in
association with approaching wave from the southwest. Although a
few marginal severe storms will remain possible, localized flash
flooding will be the main concern though the morning hours before
line shifts east of the area by early afternoon. Otherwise,
cool/breezy conditions expected behind the front this afternoon.
Weak surface high will settle over E OK/NW AR tonight. Light
winds/clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall off into the
lower 30s in a few areas across far northeast Oklahoma. Scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms still possible late Thursday afternoon
into the overnight hours in association with main upper trough
axis.

A potent upper level storm system will move into the four corners
region on Friday. Atmosphere will become moderately unstable
as warm front lifts north to near I-40 by late Friday afternoon.
Strong to severe storms are expected to rapidly develop across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by early evening along/north
of boundary with the threat for large hail and damaging winds
initially. There will also be at least a limited tornado threat
into the evening hours, however this will quickly transition to a
heavy rainfall threat Friday night into Saturday as storms train
over the same areas near stalled boundary.

A significant and potentially life threatening flood event will
unfold during the day saturday. Widespread 6 to 7 inches of rain
is currently forecast across southeast Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas Friday and Saturday with locally higher amounts up to 10
inches possible. Main-stem river flooding is also expected with
many areas lakes already above normal. There obviously remains
some uncertainty regarding exactly where the heavier rainfall
axis will occur and rainfall amounts will continue to be refined
in the upcoming days. Storms are expected to shift east of the
region by Sunday morning as upper low lifts into the Central
Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  43  70  56 /  20  10  10  40
FSM   66  44  74  56 /  90  20  10  30
MLC   61  42  74  58 /  80  10  10  10
BVO   56  40  68  51 /  20  10  20  40
FYV   60  41  68  54 /  90  20  10  40
BYV   65  42  68  55 /  90  20  10  30
MKO   59  44  71  56 /  70  10  10  30
MIO   54  39  67  53 /  60  20  10  40
F10   59  44  72  58 /  30  10  10  20
HHW   66  44  75  58 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ058-062-
     063-065>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



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