Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220410
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL W/ PATCHY AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT
FOG THE ONLY EXCEPTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY TO KEEP
GRIDS CURRENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREA WIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   71  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   69  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   70  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   64  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   67  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   71  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   71  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   69  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





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