Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 222321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will develop and advect from south to north during the first
half of the TAF period...with most cigs remaining in MVFR
categories. Some brief IFR cigs will be possible later
tonight...especially across the NW AR sites when thunder chances
will increase at that time along and ahead of a northward
advancing warm front. Rain and thunder chances to end across SE OK
and WC AR during the late morning. Southerly winds will also
become more established once the warm front has passed...and
mixing should help scatter clouds out by afternoon with VFR
conditions prevailing for the last part of the TAF period. Further
north...VFR conditions should prevail by mid afternoon at all
sites except KBVO...where prob groups for thunder and MVFR
cigs/vsbys will be kept from 18z- 24z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection ongoing across NE TX is near the sfc warm
front and this feature will lift northward tonight through Tues
increasing precip chances areawide. Noticeably higher dewpoints
will also work northward as the front passes and largely remain in
place through the forecast period.

Sfc boundaries will focus the bulk of precip chances north and
west of the area on Wed with hot and humid conditions prevailing
locally. The weak cold front slated to push into NE OK Wed night
has continued to show less southward progression w/ subsequent
model solutions and it is likely this boundary makes only a meager
push beyond the OK/KS border. Whatever remains of the boundary may
focus precip chances on Thurs with deeper tropical moisture poised
to rotate northward in the area by late week maintaining daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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