Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017



VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds will shift
to a northerly direction at BVO late tonight as a cold front
passes, with the remaining terminals likely to see their wind
shifts after 18Z tomorrow. There is some potential for MVFR
ceilings associated with the frontal passage, but will not include
these for now.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1056 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/


The main concern today continues to fire weather potential, with
expected record high temperatures leading to very low relative
humidities, especially to the northwest of I-44. The main change
to the forecast has been to lower the dew points several degrees
across parts of Pawnee, Osage, and Washington counties, with a
ribbon of lower dew points currently in west central Oklahoma
likely to extend northeastward into this part of northeast
Oklahoma. The windiest conditions should be offset, just to the
southeast, from the lowest relative humidities, and as such, the
going Fire Danger Statement continues to look sufficient to handle
the fire weather threat.

Additional tweaks have been made to the Sky cover, to account for
the current low clouds across far southeast Oklahoma. These clouds
should gradually diminish into early afternoon.

Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 602 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

Near record warmth expected today as high temperatures soar into
the lower 90s across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Gusty southwest
winds will create an elevated fire danger although RH values are
expected to remain just above critical levels. The warm weather
will continue on Tuesday across much of the area south of a cold
front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning.

Front will stall over far southeast Oklahoma during the day Wednesday
with scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms possible
north of front before boundary lifts back north Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Models remain in fairly good agreement with moving strong upper
level storm system out of the southern Rockies Thursday into
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along
approaching dry line/front Friday morning with strong to severe
convective line sweeping through the area Friday afternoon/evening.
Cooler conditions expected into the early part of next weekend
behind departing system.




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