Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 052125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low pressure was positioned over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon...with a surface low just to the southeast over
the Texas Panhandle/far Southwest Oklahoma. This area of low
pressure was progressing southeastward with increasing cloud cover
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A wind shift out of
the northwest was also apparent to the west of a trof axis. East
of the axis...southerly winds and drier air over the CWA had
created some areas of limited fire weather dangers this afternoon.

Overnight tonight...the area of low pressure is expected to
continue to push southeast into Central Texas and then into
Eastern Texas Saturday morning. As the low moves through the
region tonight into Saturday morning...a very small chance of a
light rain shower and or perhaps a snowflake or two looks to be
possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma...mainly near the
vicinity of the low. A lack of moisture and a weak area of warm
air advection residing just west southwest of the CWA
tonight...looks to keep the better chances just outside of the
CWA. However...locations mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma and along and west of the Indian Nation Turnpike in
Southeast Oklahoma could possibly see some light precip. Will
carry slightly higher pops over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to
the center of the low. The potential for a snowflake looks to be
in Northeast Oklahoma...where surface temps are expected to be
near/below freezing. For rest of the CWA...mostly cloudy
conditions with a wind shift out of the west northwest will help
temps get down into the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations.

During the day Saturday...skies should clear out from northwest to
southeast with light west northwesterly winds. These conditions
should keep temps a few degrees cooler compared to today.
Overnight Saturday night...winds return out of the southwest ahead
of a cold front dropping south through the Central United States.
This front is associated with a closed low forecast to move out of
Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region Sunday and toward
the East Coast for the first part of next week. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...the cold front looks to move
across the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty northwesterly
winds of 15-30+ mph behind the front. Gusty winds and drier air
will allow for an increase in fire weather dangers over the region
Sunday afternoon. A cooler airmass will filter into the region
within the northerly flow Sunday night.

Upper level northerly flow continues for the first half of next
week over the CWA due to a longwave trof over the East Coast and a
ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will keep cooler
temperatures over the region with highs in the 40s possible Monday
and Tuesday. Also for Monday...the gusty northerly winds in the
20 to near 40 mph range at the surface are expected to continue.
These wind speeds combined with drier air will continue very high
to elevated fire weather dangers over much of the CWA Monday
afternoon.

Latest model solutions continue to try and break down the West
Coast ridge of high pressure for the second half of next week. If
this verifies...then more downslope flow over the region will help
to warm temperatures back up toward the seasonal average
Thursday/Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  35  57 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  53  33  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  56 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   27  49  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  51  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  52  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   30  50  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
F10   32  52  34  56 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   33  53  34  61 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20


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