Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 171133
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Latest satellite imagery show low clouds are entrenched across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Low level RH progs
suggest these clouds won`t go away anytime soon. Will leave MVFR
ceilings through at least 18-21z for all the TAF sites except KFSM
and KMLC. There is a chance for some light showers across mainly
southeast OK and western AR tonight...but will not include in the
terminals for now.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/
The main points of emphasis for this morning`s forecast are: 1)
Rain/thunder chances tonight, and 2) Rain/thunder chances again
late in the week and into the weekend in what will become an
active weather pattern across the CONUS.
The split flow blocking pattern over the NE Pacific and Alaska that
sent 3 or 4 arctic intrusions down into our area is now gone. A
more active and very progressive pattern will become the rule due
to a strengthening cross-Pacific upper jet, which will not be
favorable for arctic air push down into the CONUS, at least for
the next couple of weeks.
The system that brought the rains last night has lifted up into
the Great Lakes region, while another piece of energy is hanging
back over NW Mexico. The tail end of the front that pushed thru
our area yesterday in association with the Great Lakes system has
pushed clear down into southern TX, where it should soon stall.
Models forecast the upper low to our southwest to lift out into
the Central Plains by Wednesday, while the parent trough slides
east across our area Thursday and Thursday night. Warm/moist
advection north of the front, induced by the ejecting system, will
bring another round of rain to mainly Southeast OK and West
Central AR tonight. Thunder chances look too low given lack of
instability to warrant a thunder mention in the grids for tonight.
This rain should shift east of the forecast area during the day
Wednesday as the upper low/parent upper trough slide east and
thereby force an eastward shift to the warm conveyor. It is not
out of the question we could see a shower on Thursday as the upper
trough moves overhead, but chances for measurable precip at any
one location are too low for a mention in the forecast attm.
A powerful cross-Pacific jet, extending from China to between
Hawaii and Alaska, will begin affecting the CONUS by late in the
week. A pair of strong PV maxes on the nose of this jet will begin
affecting the Plains beginning Friday and will continue thru the
weekend. The first system will take a sharp northeast turn as it
heads into the Plains Friday, passing by to our north. A narrow
tongue of decent moisture will try to make a run toward the
ArkLaTex region by Friday night. A slight chance of thunder to
nearby SE OK and W CNTRL AR was added to the forecast as a result.
The next system will be right on its heels Saturday, and once
again could bring more potential for storms in the same basic area
as Friday night. This second system will take a more southern
track over our area and will undergo mid level cyclogenesis as the
strong upper jet begins to buckle. Wrap around moisture will bring
rain chances Sunday and Sunday night before the system moves away
by Monday. Since the large scale pattern isn`t favorable for
significant cold air, wintry precip is not expected with any of
these upper systems.
Temperatures will run above average thru this forecast, and at
times much above average, in this warmer more progressive regime.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 35 53 42 / 0 20 10 10
FSM 52 41 53 45 / 0 60 30 10
MLC 52 40 53 44 / 0 70 10 10
BVO 49 30 53 39 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 49 34 52 43 / 0 40 20 10
BYV 47 34 51 43 / 0 20 20 10
MKO 50 36 52 44 / 0 40 10 10
MIO 47 31 53 42 / 0 0 10 10
F10 50 36 53 42 / 0 40 10 10
HHW 55 45 54 48 / 20 80 20 10