Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period at all area TAF sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 813 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/


A slowly retreating warm front was located from SW AR across E
Central to NW OK early this evening. Warm advection occurring
aloft to the north and east of the retreating front is expected to
generate some showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly after
midnight tonight. The latest guidance suggests that this activity
should stay primarily north of the KS and MO borders. The current
slight chance forecast across far NE OK over into NW AR is
reasonable and will not be adjusted this evening. Current forecast
lows are in the ball park with short term guidance data as well.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 622 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

VFR conditions will prevail into the late night hours across
much of the area with MVFR ceilings possible as we move
towards sunrise. VFR conditions return at all area TAF sites
by Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

A beautiful day today with light winds and afternoon high
temperatures generally in the 70s across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. Surface observations show warm front
positioned just north of the Red River Valley and will
gradually move northwards tonight and tomorrow. Just a few
high clouds to speak of north of the front with scattered
cu along and south of the front. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible overnight tonight over the higher terrain in
NW Arkansas as the warm front moves northward and increasing
low-level jet. Tomorrow will see a rebound in temperatures back
into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Increasing southerly winds will
once again allow for elevated fire risk conditions across the
area. However, low-level moisture will also be increasing through
the afternoon and mitigate risk in far eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.

Deepening lee trough and increasing warm air advection ahead of
the next system should allow for surface temperatures to climb
towards record values on Monday. Gusty southwest winds and
eastward progressing dryline will increase fire risk across
central Oklahoma and will gradually work its way into the
western most CWA counties. Thermal ridge with 850mb temperatures
of 15-20C should limit convection chances over much of the region
through the day, but could see some elevated showers and
thunderstorms develop along the front as cooler mid-levels air
works in overnight, especially across far northeast Oklahoma and
NW Arkansas.

Cold front looks to stall once again across the area and will
several slight waves moving through the flow, could see a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid-week. Focus then
turns towards late in the week as upper-level trough is poised to
eject out of the desert Southwest. Long-range models still not
aligned well, thus quite a bit of uncertainty exists as to the
timing and exact location of trough as it ejects. GFS still likes
the faster, more northern solution with the ECMWF still lagging
behind with a more southern track. At this point in time, there is
a very good chance for severe weather late next week...the
question will be exactly when and where the most favorable area
will be.




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