Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190756
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
256 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain
possible this morning across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas
under a weak warm air advection regime. Upper trough will move
out of the northern Rockies today shifting into the Central
Plains this afternoon. In response, showers/thunderstorms will
likely develop along approaching cold front this afternoon with
storms pushing into northeast Oklahoma by early evening. A few
thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe with damaging
winds, mainly during the evening hours. Thunderstorms with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will continue overnight as
front slowly pushes south.

Precipitation chances will likely persist Saturday across southeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas before ending from north to south as
front pushes south of the Red River Saturday night. Still could
see some lingering precip across far southeast Oklahoma Saturday
night into Sunday morning as front stalls across the Ark-La-Tex
region. Significantly drier air-mass expected behind the front
both Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures generally in the
lower to mid 80s.

A weak upper wave will lift northeast out of western Texas Monday
into Tuesday with shower/thunderstorm chances returning across the
area. Precipitable water values will again be in excess of 2
inches by this time with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Next cold front expected by Thursday with another round of storms/
heavy rainfall. Although currently beyond the extended period
forecast, flooding could become a concern into next weekend as
front stalls over the area with the potential for multiple rounds
of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  70  84  60 /  20  70  40  10
FSM   88  72  86  65 /  40  60  70  10
MLC   85  72  83  62 /  40  60  60  20
BVO   90  69  80  53 /  30  70  30  10
FYV   83  70  80  54 /  40  60  70  10
BYV   83  70  81  57 /  40  60  70  10
MKO   88  71  82  59 /  40  70  60  10
MIO   88  68  80  56 /  30  70  40  10
F10   86  71  81  61 /  40  70  60  10
HHW   85  71  83  67 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12



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