Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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089
FXUS64 KTSA 281728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day and
into the evening hours. After midnight tonight...VFR cigs will
develop and will eventually lower into the MVFR range Friday
morning. Warm advection will produce sct storms after 2 am across
north TX, which will spread across portions of E OK and NW AR
thru midday Friday. The better chances for storms will be at KMLC
and KFSM, where tempo groups were used, while prob30 groups were
used at the other sites farther north where there`s a little more
uncertainty.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief IFR vsbys in fog across parts of northwest AR this morning.
Conditions to improve at KFYV by mid morning as temp/dewpoint
spreads increase along with surface winds. Thunderstorms that
develop tonight likely to stay south of KMLC. VFR cigs expected to
spread north during the latter half of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Occluded frontal system has pushed well east...with higher
dewpoint air suppressed into srn TX and through the Gulf coast
states. Expect a rather pleasant day...as the
northeasterly/easterly flow maintains the dry low-level airmass.

The front situated across TX will begin to lift north later today
as a warm front...and should stretch roughly west-east along the
Red River by late tonight. This will bring the higher dewpoints
farther north as well...with 55-60F dewpoints likely across
southern OK toward Friday morning. A strengthening low-level jet
along with improving isentropic lift will result in convection
along and north of the warm front...generally after 06z...with
the activity spreading into mainly east-central and southeast OK.
There will be some risk of hail with the elevated
storms...although better severe chances are expected to remain to
our southwest.

The degree of northward progression of the warm front remains in
question on Friday...but plan on leaning toward the ECMWF/GFS
solution of keeping the front near the Red River at least during
the early part of the day. Impressive isentropic lift will persist
through eastern TX into southeast OK...and we`ll need to keep a
close eye on the heavy rainfall potential especially over
southeast OK. Additional storms are expected during the day along
the eastward advancing dryline...and this activity will eventually
spread across the forecast area Friday evening/night as the
surface cyclone lifts into northwest OK and the dryline/Pacific
front surges east. Again the greatest severe weather threat looks
to stay mostly southwest of the forecast area...although this
could change if the warm front lifts farther north thus resulting
in a larger warm sector across parts of the forecast area.

Convection should be moving east of the area on Saturday as the
Pacific front eventually clears. Sunday is looking cooler and
dry...with low-end PoP returning early next mainly for the
southern half of the area.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  74  62  76 /  40  80  80  20
FSM   60  77  63  80 /  30  90  80  50
MLC   62  75  61  78 /  60  90  80  20
BVO   52  73  57  76 /  30  80  80  10
FYV   54  71  60  76 /  10  80  80  50
BYV   54  70  59  77 /  10  70  80  50
MKO   57  74  61  75 /  40  80  80  20
MIO   54  73  59  76 /  20  60  80  20
F10   57  74  61  76 /  40  90  70  20
HHW   61  75  65  80 /  60  90  80  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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