Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 290458
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Line of strong storms should clear NE OK TAF sites before 06z,
followed by a period of more stratiform rain with embedded thunder
overnight with MVFR conditions prevailing. Additional thunderstorms
will spread across southeast OK after 09z tonight and into W AR
between 12-15z with lowering ceilings there as well. Afternoon
thunderstorm re-development likely across W AR and extreme E OK
Wed afternoon. Flight conditions expected to improve from west to
east late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 928 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Elevated convection has increased mainly to the northwest of Tulsa
metro over the past hour in warm advection regime ahead of main
storm system. Line of strong to severe storms currently passing
through OKC area has produced a few gusts over 60 mph and will
continue moving to the northeast. Most recent meso analysis shows
environment for severe weather becomes less favorable to the
north and east and given elevated nature of instability expect
only a limited threat of wind gusts as these storms eventually
move into northeast OK. Additional linear storm complex moving
across northwest TX shown by hi res models to make a run toward
eastern OK late tonight may encounter a slightly more unstable
environment across southeast OK, again with instability mainly
elevated in nature. This may offer a slightly higher threat of
severe weather overnight. Have made some minor changes to POP
forecast fore this evening, and also lowered conditional severe
probs a bit. Updated products will be out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Current VFR conditions will detiorate overnight as showers and
thunderstorms expand from west to east. Ceilings are likely to
lower area wide overnight with convection impacting all eastern OK
sites before sunrise. The stronger storms will focus nearer
western AR during the day Wed with flight conditions improving
from west to east later in the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered over New Mexico will lift east northeast
tonight and Wednesday resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Surface based instability will remain very limited
tonight as the true warm front remains to the south, and this will
limit the damaging wind potential with the line or lines of
storms that will move into our area overnight. The linear nature
of the storms are also likely to limit the hail potential, so the
overall severe risk in our area does not appear to be that great
overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will be the greatest threat,
especially across the western part of our forecast area.

The severe weather threat Wednesday will depend a great deal on
the future evolution of the overnight convection. If the
atmosphere can recover sufficiently, a better severe risk may
exist Wednesday afternoon, especially across the eastern part of
our forecast area.

Thursday looks like a raw day, with some wraparound precipitation,
especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. A quick warmup will take place Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next upper system that will result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances during the latter half of the weekend into
the first of next week. As of now, it appears the track of this
system will be south of the current one, so the severe risk should
remain quite limited in our area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  74  47  57 /  80  80  40  60
FSM   59  74  52  62 /  30  70  40  50
MLC   62  75  47  59 /  70  80  30  30
BVO   58  72  46  57 /  90  80  40  60
FYV   56  71  49  59 /  30  80  40  60
BYV   54  71  50  61 /  40  80  60  60
MKO   61  73  48  58 /  60  80  40  40
MIO   57  71  48  59 /  60  80  50  60
F10   61  75  46  57 /  80  70  40  30
HHW   63  75  50  63 /  60  80  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14


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