Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 222212
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
412 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest upper level flow continued across the Southern Plains
this afternoon as an upper level longwave trof axis remained out
west with a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf Coast
States/Southeast U.S. Within this flow...another vorticity center
was lifting northeast through the Southern/Central Plains allowing
for continued widespread rain showers along with some
isolated/scattered thunder to spread over Eastern Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas. Finally...by the mid afternoon hours...surface
temperatures had warmed above freezing CWA-wide which has allowed
for the winter weather advisory to expire. Temps ranged from the
mid 30s in Osage county to the low 50s in parts of Northwest
Arkansas.

Through tonight...the vorticity center will continue to lift
northeast and exit the region which should also lift the majority
of the precip chances northeast of the CWA by Friday morning.
Temperatures overnight look to not change all that much and for
most locations remain above freezing. Thus...no winter weather is
currently anticipated overnight.

Rain and isolated thunder chances are quick to spread back
northward Friday as another wave within the southwesterly upper
level flow pushes through the region. Temperatures continue to
stay above freezing Friday with forecast highs in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. At the same time Friday...the surface boundary currently
over Southeast Texas and Louisiana is expected to begin lifting
back northward toward the CWA. This boundary looks to move into
Southeast Oklahoma Friday night with continued rain and
thunderstorm chances for the CWA. Have increased the thunder
potential slightly across these locations late friday night in
response to the boundary. Also with the boundary Friday
night...increasing dewpoints will help to slowly warm temperatures
during the night from south to north with temps in the low 40s to
upper 50s possible by Saturday morning.

Latest model solutions continue to show a more defined wave with
an associated dryline/cold front exiting out of the Rocky
Mountain region and across the Plains Saturday. The dryline looks
to push into Eastern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon with the cold
front moving through the CWA Saturday afternoon/evening.
Thus...shower and thunderstorm chances will again remain possible
Saturday ahead of the front. With the time of day the front is
progged to move through along with instability interacting with
the front could allow for the potential of a few strong to perhaps
severe storms into Saturday evening. Precipitation chances finally
taper off Saturday night with the departing wave and cold front.

From all of the continued precip chances Friday through
Saturday...additional rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range
will be possible across Southeast Oklahoma into West Central
Arkansas. Across Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas
lesser amounts in the near half inch to 1.5 inch range will be
possible. This forecast rainfall on top of recent rains will help
to increase the potential for flash flooding and also some river
flooding concerns. Thus...have issued a flood watch for parts of
Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas starting Friday
morning through Saturday. Depending on how the heavy rainfall axis
sets up...additional counties maybe need to be added to this
watch.

Behind the cold front...Saturday afternoon...gusty winds and a drier
airmass could increase fire weather concerns across Northeast
Oklahoma as this is where the stronger winds and lesser rainfall
amounts should be co- located. Saturday night into the first part
of next week...conditions over the CWA look to finally dry out
with temperatures in the 60s for highs. By the middle part of next
week though...rain chances look to return with another approaching
wave.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  49  44  63 /  20  60  80  60
FSM   42  55  51  68 /  70  80  80  80
MLC   37  50  48  67 /  40  90  90  80
BVO   32  49  40  60 /  20  20  70  60
FYV   41  56  50  64 /  80  80  90  80
BYV   43  55  49  65 /  80  60  90  80
MKO   37  50  47  64 /  40  80  90  70
MIO   36  50  44  60 /  70  30  80  70
F10   36  49  46  63 /  20  80  80  70
HHW   43  56  52  67 /  60  90  70  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ049-053-075-076.

AR...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     ARZ020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....20


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