090
FXUS64 KTSA 131722
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue today
   and likely lasting into Monday, with potential for locally
   heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this
   evening for all of the NWS Tulsa forecast area.

 - Rain/storm chances become more diurnally driven by Tuesday,
   with the best coverage shifting to the northeast of the area.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will continue
   to bring chances for storms Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Storm chances drop off by the end of the week as ridging tries
   to build in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mid-level trough/MCV currently over the southern KS will shift over
northeast OK by mid-late morning. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary should remain stationary across east-central OK and
southeast KS through the daytime. Consensus in global and hi-res
model data suggest showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage on the southern and eastern periphery of the MCV, across
southeast OK and northwest AR, a few hours after midnight and
through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall/flooding remains
the primary threat, though there may be enough instability for
marginally severe downbursts with more organized activity. Despite a
somewhat worked-over atmosphere after convection in the morning,
another round of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms seems
probable sometime mid-late afternoon as some destabilization occurs.
Daytime heating, lingering MCV, and leftover outflow boundaries
should cause scattered to numerous showers and storms, with hi-res
models focusing convection mostly across southeast OK and western
AR. This is also where the highest PWATs (2+ inches) will be located
by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will vary (maybe greatly) from
location to location, but in general, additional rainfall amounts 2+
inches will be possible today.  A plethora of cloud cover and
rainfall will keep temperatures unseasonably cool for mid-July.
Afternoon highs will generally reach the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The mid-level trough axis and associated vorticity lobe will park
itself and become nearly stationary over the forecast area tonight
and through much of the day on Monday, maybe even beyond Monday.
Latest 00z run of the HRRR suggests a decrease in precipitation
after sunset this evening and into the overnight hours. Maintained a
chance of showers and storms given the juicy environment and trough
over the area. Otherwise, tonight should be mostly dry with
overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection looks probable
again Monday and through at least Wednesday as the upper-level
trough finally begins to lift northeast out of the area thereafter.
A weak cold front will try and approach the forecast area sometime
Wednesday or Thursday, but likely will not be strong enough to push
through. Long-range models hint at showers and storms may accompany
the frontal boundary as it approaches, and may push into northeast
OK and northwest AR Wednesday night into Thursday. Beyond Thursday,
models and ensembles indicate mid/upper-level ridging finally
beginning to build in over the southern CONUS by late in the week
and into next weekend. With that said, temperatures will trend
warmer and precipitation will trend drier each day through the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Spotty showers with some low chance for thunder will persist
through the afternoon and into the evening across the region,
gradually shifting eastward with time. MVFR cigs should gradually
lift some across NE OK this afternoon as more sunshine enters the
area, while cigs will likely hold over NW AR for longer. Showers
should move out during the evening hours though some spotty shower
chances will continue across NW AR overnight. Calm winds and good
moisture around could also lead to some patchy fog development
early tomorrow morning for most sites, as well as a return to MVFR
cigs across much of the region. Winds will generally remain light,
becoming more easterly and southeasterly by tomorrow.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
FSM   73  88  73  91 /  30  40  20  30
MLC   70  86  71  90 /  20  40  20  30
BVO   67  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   68  86  69  87 /  20  40  20  30
BYV   68  86  69  88 /  20  40  10  30
MKO   70  84  70  88 /  20  30  20  30
MIO   68  86  70  89 /  10  20  10  20
F10   69  85  70  89 /  20  30  10  30
HHW   70  83  71  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04