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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211526
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1026 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have only made some minor adjustments to the grids
for Today to better reflect current trends.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 545 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail. Any afternoon storm chances are too
low for mention at specific terminals. After midnight storms
across KS may gradually spread southward but impacts into NE OK
may not be until just beyond this forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another quiet night and early morning with nearest convection well
west of the area. The primary focus today will be viewing
potential for the eclipse. Unfortunately, it looks like there will
be a bit more cloud cover early this afternoon than previous days
as moisture streams up into the region...so it could be hit or
miss for eclipse viewing. Thunderstorm chances also look a bit
more favorable with the increase in mid-level moisture, especially
over portions of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Another area to to watch for isolated/scattered convection this
afternoon will be over the Texas Panhandle extending northeastward
into western and north-central Oklahoma as shortwave trough
skirts the ridge. This increase in cloud cover, and expected light
impacts from the eclipse, should keep high temperatures from
reaching the values seen over the weekend. However, with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s, the day will still be
hot and muggy with heat indices across much of the CWA reaching
100 to 104 degrees.

Focus then shifts to Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of the
next frontal system. Upper level low currently off the coast of
California will retrograde slightly as a trough drops down into
the northern Rockies. This system will quickly deepen as it moves
out onto the Plains. The attendant cold front will near the region
Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage through the day Tuesday as the front
progresses southward...continuing overnight as the front reaches
the Red River Valley by Wednesday morning. Heavy rain is likely
with this system, and heaviest precipitation axis continuing to
look focused near the Interstate 40 corridor. Within the heavy
rain axis, 2 to 3 inches are likely with locally higher amounts
possible. Precipitation will end north to south Wednesday.

Cooler and drier weather will move in behind this system as the
pattern shifts back to more of a northwest flow regime. A
shortwave trough moving through the flow will bring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10