Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 080939
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong winds will prevail across the forecast area today w/
regional VWP data sampling 30-40kts currently which will be tapped
with expected mixing heights. The result will be 35 to 45 mph
gusts across eastern OK and possibly 30 to 40 mph gusts across
western AR. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent
days...however humidities will remain low as dewpoints
fall...with the resultant conditions being supportive of rapid
spread to any wildfires today. Areas of low clouds will pass
across far NE OK and far NW AR today with a few sprinkles
possible...otherwise clear skies will prevail for several days to
come beneath a very dry northwesterly flow pattern.

The forecast remains consistent in keeping the area between much
colder air to the north and east...and much warmer air to the
southwest. Also remaining consistent is the large spread in
potential temperatures...however confidence has increased somewhat
in supporting above normal temperatures for mid to late week.
Latest data also suggestive a stronger and more westward surge for
the cold air by next weekend...however uncertainty in this time
frame is very large within ensemble data. Dry weather is expected
to prevail until possibly late in the weekend...and even this
potential has decreased with the latest guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  27  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  28  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  26  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   41  24  42  21 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  23  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   48  25  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  23  44  22 /  10   0   0   0
F10   50  27  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   52  29  54  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07


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