Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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322 FXUS63 KIWX 041746 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 146 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid this afternoon followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. - Showers and thunderstorms persist through Wednesday afternoon. Some of these storms may be strong, particularly across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. - Turning cooler starting Thursday with passing showers at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Warm afternoon on tap today as riding over the midwest leads to upper level height increases. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening along the eastern flank of a slow moving surface low / MCV currently over northeast Missouri. However, better upper-level support arrives overnight into Wednesday morning out ahead of a mid- level trough that is currently moving out of the Central Plains. Precipitation chances (60-80%) will be favored along the western half of the CWA. By late morning and through the remainder of the afternoon hours, storms will increase in intensity as they advance east out ahead and along a cold front marching across the area. Instability and synoptic support will be favorable, however marginal bulk shear (around 25kt) and meager mid-level lapse rates will preclude any bigger concern. Nevertheless, some strong to marginally severe wind gusts will be possible due to steep low-level lapse rates, particularly over NE Indiana and NW Ohio. A prolonged pattern shift will round out the remainder of the forecast period as an upper-level low meanders over the Great Lakes region. Cooler temperatures and low rain shower chances (10-20%) each day. Fortunately, no significant weather episode is expected through this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 104 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR ceilings will persist for the next few hours, but mid level cumulus clouds should start to build this afternoon in advance of scattered showers/storms moving in this evening. Scattered showers/storms will be hit or miss overnight, but have added thunder at both terminals from 00-09Z Wednesday to account for this. Ceilings will be MVFR to potentially IFR overnight and Wednesday morning, with NBM probabilities of MVFR ceilings at about 50-60%.Another round of rain/storms is likely Wednesday afternoon as a cold front pushes through the forecast area. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...Johnson