Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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520
FXUS63 KIWX 260811
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
411 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

It will continue to be warm and humid today and through the
upcoming holiday weekend. There will also be a small chance for
thunderstorms through the entire period but a complete washout or
prolonged period of rain is not expected. High temperatures today
will once again be in the lower and middle 80s but it will feel
even more humid. Lows tonight will remain in the 60s with muggy
conditions. Similar highs and lows can be expected into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Water vapor this morning shows substantial drying and subsidence
behind departing short wave. Area of showers and thunderstorms was
moving out of northern locations and should see clearing and dry
conditions early this morning. Focus then shifts to approaching MCV
from upstream overnight convection in the MS valley. HRRR trends
this morning have shown increasing chances for some redevelopment of
convection across IL which may then move across primarily our
Indiana counties mid morning into early afternoon.
However...latest run available prior to issuance has backed off
and washes convection out before reaching our west. As we have
seen over the last 24 hrs...convective models are not very good
with placement and development of these weakly forced complexes.
Not much focus synoptically so will continue to keep low chance
pops in forecast given increased low level moisture and increasing
instability with afternoon CAPEs above 2k j/kg. Will not take much
to set off a few storms in this environment. Models showing
another very small scale perturbation moving through tonight into
Friday so again continued low chance PoPs into Friday morning.
Severe threat remains low with lack of deep shear and weak forcing
but enough CAPE to support isolated strong to pulse severe storms
if they can manage to develop.

High temps today will once again push the lower to mid 80s. Highs a
bit tricky today given upstream convection and potential for
convective cloud debris or development of additional storms.
Maintained highs similar to Wednesday readings. It will be more
humid today as mix out of dew points expected to be less than
yesterday. Afternoon apparent temps to reach middle and possibly
upper 80s in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

It continues to sound like a broken record but not much change in
long term forecasts. Moist but generally weak flow expected over
the region during this period with several small scale short waves
rippling through. Deeper and slightly stronger flow looks possible
this weekend with good GOMEX tap but more clouds may limit
instability. Question will also be timing and strength of short
waves. Models doing their typical bullish and widespread
development which is likely overdone given what we have seen so
far in this weakly forced environment. Chose to keep PoPs in the
low to mid chance range through the period until we see something
better to focus/initiate more widespread convection. Superblend
init generally looked good with only some minor modifications.
While PoPs are spread through the entire weekend...it does not
look like a washout by any means. It will remain warm and muggy
with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s with dew points in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

An upper level system was moving across lower Michigan with
showers and storms staying just north of South Bend. Some
additional showers and even an isolated storm are possible early
this morning, but forcing appears to weak to support much in the
way of convection over Indiana. Low level moisture was increasing
with some MVFR clouds forming along the Illinois and Indiana
border. Some of these lower clouds may develop or spread into the
terminals. For now, favored a 2-3 hour period of MVFR visibilities
toward daybreak. Left lower cloud ceilings out for now, although
a lower ceiling is possible and may need to be added later in the
TAFs.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...Skipper


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