Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 171905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
305 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Mild southwest flow will persist into tonight and Tuesday, with
lows near 70 degrees tonight and highs ranging between the upper
70s and low 80s on Tuesday. A cold front will drop through
Tuesday afternoon bringing low chances for an isolated rain
shower, with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions expected in
its wake Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Chances for a
widespread rain event then increase Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday as a low pressure system lifts through. Cooler and mainly
dry conditions are then expected to follow Friday into next


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Unseasonably mild and breezy conditions will continue into
tonight and Tuesday morning as low level southwest flow ramps up
in response to deepening surface low lifting northeast through the
northern Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will slide southeast
into nw IN/lower MI later Tuesday morning/early afternoon and then
into remaining areas mid-late afternoon. Shower/isolated thunder
chances continue to look low along this feature given shallow
moisture profiles and little mid-upper level support.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A trend toward cooler (yet still above normal) temperatures and
mainly dry conditions become the story into Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning as frontal boundary stalls out toward the OH River under
southwest flow aloft.

Models have remained consistent in a decent frontal wave lifting
northeast through the northern OH Valley/eastern Great Lakes late
Wednesday into Thursday in response to upper trough amplifying into
the central US. Strong dynamics and ample moisture return into
burgeoning deformation axis should support a widespread rain event
during this time into at least our ne IN/nw OH counties where
rainfall amounts could exceed an inch, though expect slight
temporal/spatial adjustments going forward. PoPs/QPF may be a little
underdone in the current forecast per 12z model consensus, with an
increase expected going forward. A cooler/mainly dry northwest flow
regime in then expected in wake of system Friday through Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the overnight as scattered
diurnal clouds this afternoon will lift as surface heating
stops. SFC winds look to remain strong with a few gusts to 30 kts
possible. Frontal passage will occur late morning from the NW
will lead to lowering ceilings. Models are mixed about precip
occurring with the frontal passage so did not include.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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