Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW A BIT DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING. FEELING IS THAT 12Z
MODELS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 12Z REGIONAL
RAOBS...WHICH OTHERWISE ARE QUITE DRY....AND ARE PROJECTING IT
DOWNSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC WAVE. SEVERAL MODELS CAME IN WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS QPF WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LITTLE IF ANY. NAM12 AND
GFS40 DO SHOW A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND VORT MAX BUT MUCH LOWER THAN
THE TYPICAL 500MB LEVEL. A NICE REFLECTION IS SEEN AROUND 850-700MB
ALONG WITH SOME SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN. WITH A
LACK OF SUPPORT CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AND LIGHT NATURE
EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SILENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT
POPS. HOWEVER...WILL ADD CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AS EVEN LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMED WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.

EXPECT MAIN SURFACE FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE FLOW COMES AROUND OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INITIALIZATION AND EARLY VERIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO HAVE HAD REASONABLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
GIVEN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SUPPORT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
RAISED HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING 72F TO 76F OVER ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS
NOW COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING WITH A -10C.
THEREFORE...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE FRIDAY IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BUT DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. REGARDLESS...TAFS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MOIST
LOWER LEVELS AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT SAT MORNING TO REMAIN
CLOUDY AGAIN WITH MIXING AND CLEARING FOLLOWING MAIN FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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