Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261740
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CHILLY CANADIAN AIR WILL CAUSE LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 60S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE RAIN HOLD OFF
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF INDIANA AND SHOULD CLEAR NORTHWEST
OHIO BY DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAD DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED. AT 4 AM EDT... A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD COME ON SHORE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE MARINE AIR WHERE WATER TEMPS
WERE NEAR 40 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE MID LAKE BUOY WAS HELPING TO
ACCENTUATE THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE AT GARY INDIANA DROPPED 24
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR AFTER PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER
MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT. VISIBILITIES HAD FALLEN TO A
QUARTER OF A MILE BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT
6 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
LOWER MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA...VERY DRY AND CHILLY AIR
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS LOW AS
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
HILLSDALE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FOCUS TONIGHT ON NEAR
TERM WEATHER AND RADAR. A COUPLE MAIN SHORT WAVES STILL LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE FIRST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
SECOND OVER THE WEEKEND. A BIT CONCERNED WITH HIGH PCPN CHANCES WED
INTO THU GIVEN RATHER STOUT EASTERLY WIND AND SFC LOW TRACKING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL SEE IF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT OVER BOUNDARY
CAN OVERCOME DRY LOWER LEVELS AND EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES. MAINTAINED
GOING POPS WITH SUPERBLEND INIT. SHOULD BE A COOL PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND EASTERLY FLOW.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FRIDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY BUT NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR WEEKEND WITH DRAWN OUT CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PRESENT AND QUESTIONS ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. OTHERWISE SUPERBLEND INIT USED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND HAVE SIDED MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO DURATION OF STRATUS LAYER. COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK THROUGHOUT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. CHANCE OF SCATTERING OUT BRIEFLY THIS EVE AT
KSBN...THOUGH WITH TIME SATURATION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND PERSISTENT MIXING/NE-E CLOUD LAYER FLOW TO LIKELY LEND STRATUS
TO SOLIDIFY AND ADVANCE SWD INTO KFWA VCNTY AS WELL. HELD AOA 600
FT AND GENERALLY GOOD VSBYS AS ELEVATED STRATUS SUGGESTED BY
HRRR/NAM AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. AS OPPOSED TO THIS MORNING/LIFT OUT
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAPID WITH STRONGER
INSOLATION/TRANSITION TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


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