Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 112059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
359 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

A pair of middle level system will approach. The first will bring
a chance of snow, primarily north of Route 6 overnight. Little if
any accumulation is expected. Lows overnight will be in the upper
20s to lower 30s. The next system will bring a more widespread
precipitation event. Mostly rain is expected south of a Monticello
Indiana to Lima Ohio line with a transition from a mix of rain
and snow to all rain. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. The precipitation may end as a mix of rain and snow
early Sunday night. Milder air with dry conditions will arrive for
the start of the work week, with highs into the 40s to lower 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Primary focus on lowered temperatures overnight with low level
thermal trof aligned north/south through western half lower
Michigan into northeast Indiana. Drainage flow into KBEH as well
expected to afford middle teens. Fairly decent recovery on
Saturday in advance of approaching northern stream system.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

System to exit CWA early Sunday night. Some concern for minor/very
light freezing rain/freezing drizzle as ice nucleation lost and
shallow cold wedge on trailing periphery of precip shield. Overall a
low probability/qpf and brief event at best. Surface ridge builds
into region Monday and axis elongated/shifts quickly eastward with
cyclogenesis associated with departing wave well New England shore.
Thermal moderation to near normal and dry Day3 to late Day 4.
Midweek system remaining high belted and moderately strong with all
liquid event centered about daytime Wednesday. Still discrepancies
associated with a late Thursday/Friday event, save for fact that
system easily again all liquid except for possible rain/snow mix
late Friday night into Saturday morning. Given it appears that bulk
of Eastern Pacific trof moves across CONUS have began shift
towards higher blended pops with an equal mix of prior/blend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Midlevel clouds will begin to enter from the northwest early in
the period and conditions will stay VFR through Sunday morning.
Underneath the midlevel clouds, a dry near-surface layer will
likely hold off initial precipitation until at least 12z Sunday
at SBN, but when it does fall, it looks to fall as flurries to
start. A changeover to rain will eventually occur some time in
the afternoon. In addition, expect winds to to stay out of the
southeast during the bulk of the period.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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