Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271701
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR LATE JUNE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY 1006MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...LIFTS INTO OHIO. DEFORMATION AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
OVER OUR CWA WITH SLUGGISH OVERALL SYSTEM SPEED LEADING TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN HALF. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS SYSTEM FEATURES EXCELLENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND HIGH DEGREE
OF CURVATURE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER NOAM IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING AND QUICKLY OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL
MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY. PINWHEELING MIDLEVEL VORT
MAX AND GOOD LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN ON NORTHWEST FLANK OF
SURFACE LOW WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW LONG PRECIP WILL
LAST IN THOSE COUNTIES AND MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS.
NAM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST WITH SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN
DEFORMATION AXIS/LIGHT RAIN IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT WHEREAS GFS AND GEM ARE JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PUSH RAIN OUT OF OUR CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS ARE
EQUALLY SPLIT. GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PERFORMANCE SO FAR...AM INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER
WEST SOLUTION AND HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THAT BEING
SAID...LACK OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
AN INCH OR LESS. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE
EARLY...ESPECIALLY THE OHIO COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO STAY THE
COURSE FOR NOW GIVEN SOME DECENT RAINFALL RATES CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH FORT WAYNE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TIME TO
MONITOR LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND GET A BETTER SENSE
OF THE IMPACT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION ON HEADLINES. OUTSIDE
OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY NICE
AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES IN OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. OTHER
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH IN OUR EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WX ON SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS THOUGH WITH MEAN UPR TROF LINGERING OVER THE GRTLKS... HIGHS
SHOULD STILL BE A BIT BLO NORMAL.

SHRTWV OVER NRN SASK THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE DOWN BACKSIDE
OF GRTLKS TROF INTO IL SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN EAST ALONG BASE OF THE
TROF ACROSS INDIANA ON MONDAY. MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT MORE SW WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT... BUT OVERALL
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LOOKING TO BE MONDAY ACROSS OUR CWA.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL PRBLY LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE EVE...
ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TUE AS UPR TROF AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CWA WITH DVLPG DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BACKSIDE OF ERN CANADA/CONUS TROF AROUND WED BRINGING
ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH CLOSER TO OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A MORE SGFNT SYSTEM PSBL FRI OR SAT. MEAN TROF
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD SUGGESTING
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NE AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. KIWX RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN NEAR BOTH TAF SITES
AT THE ONSET OF THIS CYCLE BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NOW LIFTING NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PLAN TO INCLUDE A TEMPO/VC GROUP FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
BOTH SITES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...DECREASING TO 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JAL


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