Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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804 FXUS64 KFWD 281921 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 221 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ /This afternoon through Wednesday/ A complex of severe storms that moved through North Texas early this morning continues to push into Central and East Texas at this time. A large area of lighter rain and embedded, non-severe storms will gradually clear from northwest to southeast through early afternoon, leaving many areas rain-free this afternoon and evening. However, we will maintain some low PoPs (10%-30%) pretty much everywhere to account for lingering moisture, stray outflows, and some afternoon heating. The better storm chances will arrive across the western counties this evening with storms moving off the dryline. TTU WRF and HRRR are in decent agreement on storms timing with an organized line reaching the I-35 corridor around midnight and exiting into East Texas by sunrise. This solution seems reasonable and we will based our forecast around it. The good news is that the atmosphere behind the Wednesday morning storms should be very worked over, so we will keep storm chances low on Wednesday for most areas. High temperatures today will be very tricky since rain-cooled outflow has knocked temps into the 60s in most locations. There will be afternoon sun in many spots so we should recover at least into the 70s to the lower 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the middle and upper 60s behind the overnight complex of storms. Wednesday temperatures should be slightly higher than today due to a bit more daytime sun. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night through Tuesday/ Unsettled weather will continue across North and Central Texas through the weekend with multiple chances for thunderstorms and severe weather. It does appear that a building ridge aloft early next week will decease storm chances. Subtle mid-level ridging Wednesday night should limit storm chances overall. However, lingering moisture and the potential for random outflow boundaries across the region warrant at least some low chance PoPs. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday through Friday with subtle shortwave energy moving through nearly zonal flow aloft. The best storm chances will likely be overnight Thursday/Friday morning when the steering flow becomes a bit more northwesterly, allowing a storm complex to move southeast out of Oklahoma. Storms should push into South Texas Friday evening while a subtle ridge builds in from the west. The ridge will briefly become centered over the region Saturday, resulting in decreasing storm chances and slightly warmer temperatures. Unfortunately, the "quieter" weather will not last long with a good potential for West Texas dryline storms to organize and march eastward Saturday night/Sunday morning due to yet another shortwave moving in on the heels of the departing ridge. The potential for severe weather will exist with wind and hail being the most likely hazards. It is difficult to say how active Sunday afternoon will be but the most likely scenario is that subsidence will be left in the wake of the departing storms, limiting afternoon/evening storm formation. It does appear the pattern will attempt to change early next week with a higher amplitude ridge building from the Desert Southwest to the Central Plains. This pattern will temporarily increase northwest flow aloft, which often carries afternoon storms from the Central High Plains into North Texas during the overnight and early morning hours. The most likely day/time for this to occur would be overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be around or just below seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 80s. The building ridge early next week will push temperatures into the 90s for most. A lack of any noteworthy cold fronts will keep a humid airmass in place through early next week. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ /18Z TAFS/ The complex of severe storms that blow through the TAF sites this morning will continue to exit to the east and southeast. Very strong wake low winds remain across the Metroplex TAF sites but they will likely decrease as the cirrus shield exits to the east. We anticipate VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon and most of the evening with a few lingering clouds between 5000 and 8000 ft and scattered to broken high clouds. Another line of storms is expected to form on the dryline this afternoon across West Texas. These storms should begin impacting all terminals, including Waco, between 05Z and 10Z. Storms will exit to the east after sunrise Wednesday. Strong and gusty east to southeast winds will decrease in the next couple of hours. The wind will remain from the east to southeast this afternoon through Wednesday morning at speeds between 8 and 14 knots along with some higher gusts. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 69 85 71 83 / 100 70 40 30 40 Waco 85 68 83 70 83 / 70 60 50 30 50 Paris 79 66 80 67 79 / 100 50 60 20 40 Denton 82 66 83 67 82 / 100 60 40 20 40 McKinney 80 67 83 68 81 / 100 60 40 20 40 Dallas 83 69 85 70 83 / 100 60 40 20 40 Terrell 82 67 83 68 82 / 100 60 50 30 40 Corsicana 84 69 85 71 84 / 100 60 60 30 50 Temple 87 68 84 70 84 / 60 60 50 30 40 Mineral Wells 82 66 84 69 83 / 100 60 40 30 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$