Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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839 FXUS63 KGID 201718 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1218 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible across at least a portion of the forecast area each day for the next 7 days. The highest chances (up to near 85%) will be tonight. - High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to lower 80s. Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s to mid 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today and tonight... An upper trough extends from the northern Plains and Pacific Northwest southward to Southern California. Shortwave troughs are currently moving over the Midwest and southern/central Plains resulting in thunderstorms across these areas. Temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are currently in the 50s and 60s. Fog is beginning to develop across portions of the forecast area with light to calm winds present. The previously mentioned upper trough will move slightly eastward today. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day today (15% to near 40% chance) as upper lift increases across the area from the approaching upper trough. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Upper lift across the area will increase tonight with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. These conditions will allow for increasing chances (up to near 85%) of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Some of these storms will likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday through Wednesday night... A portion of the upper trough will move over the central Plains on Tuesday bringing in a cold front across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the low 60s to low 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible (up to near a 75% chance) during the morning hours with chances decreasing (up to a 45% chance) during the afternoon. There is a marginal risk (per the SPC Day 2 outlook) of severe storms for Tuesday (mainly the morning hours) for areas generally along and east of Highway 281. Skies will begin to clear Tuesday night with low temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and fairly light winds. Southerly winds will return to the area Wednesday night as the surface high moves eastward. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Thursday through Sunday night... An upper trough will move from the northern Rocky Mountains over the northern and central Plains on Thursday. There is a 15% to 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the western 2/3rds of the forecast area on Thursday. There is uncertainty as to whether these storms will possibly be severe. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with south to southeast winds present. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to range from the upper 40s to near 60 degrees. Rain and storm chances increase up to near 60% Thursday night along and ahead of a cold front that will begin moving into the area. High temperatures on Friday will mainly be in the 70s behind the cold front. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday from the previous day with south to southeast winds. Another upper trough will move over the northern Rocky Mountains and northern and central Plains beginning Saturday night. This will increase lift over the area and allow for increasing chances (up to near 30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Saturday night will mainly be in the 50s. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up slightly from the previous day. Low temperatures Sunday night will be similar to those from the previous night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Chances for -SHRA tonight and TAF sites could see some TSRA also. The models keep moving TSRA farther north, but still not far enough for me to drop VCTS from TAFS. Currently the HRRR has most activity just north of I-80, with the TAF sites just on the edge. Severe storms tonight could produce very gusty winds and large hail. Another round of VCTS will be possible late morning near the end of the TAF period as a cold front will be moving through the region. I dropped vis and ceilings as stratus ceilings look to move in from the NE which could give us some upslope BR also. Once the cold front moves through ceilings should improve along with visibility. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Beda