Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230534
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE BOTTOM LINE: HAVE INTRODUCED A GENERIC "SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES" TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT/FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL 1/3 OF THE CWA.

THE LONGER VERSION: AS STATED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN THE MAIN
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THOSE "SNEAKY"
LATE NIGHT/MORNING SITUATIONS WHERE AT THE VERY LEAST SOME ROGUE
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POP UP...AND THIS FORECASTER WAS
ALSO UNEASY ENOUGH WITH THE COMPLETELY "DRY" FORECAST TO AT LEAST
THROW A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THERE. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO WITH A MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCE...BUT IT`S TECHNICALLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT EVEN SOME WEAK THUNDERSHOWERS COULD FLARE
UP GIVEN MODEL PROGS OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO THE CURRENT SPRINKLE CHANCE IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN A DRY FORECAST AND A FORMAL THUNDER MENTION. DESPITE
FAIRLY MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS...THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR A
NORTH-SOUTH RIBBON OF MID LEVEL LIFT/SATURATION TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A FAIRLY STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET (AS
EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS)...AND AS ALSO NOTED ON MODEL 310K
ISENTROPIC FIELDS. SO...NOT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OUT OF WHAT SHOULD BE
A RATHER MINOR PRECIP CHANCE...BUT WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT AT
LEAST "SOMETHING" COULD VERY WELL BE SHOWING UP ON RADAR LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. IF ANY ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT
DEVELOP...ONCOMING NIGHT SHIFT MAY EVEN HAVE TO CONSIDER A LOW
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

ALOFT: A RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CA/OR COAST. THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO BOTH
FEATURES WILL MOVE E TONIGHT WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING SW
TOMORROW. THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON THE LOW BEING OVER WRN WY BY 00Z/SUN.

SURFACE: LOW PRES AND A PAC COLD FRONT WERE MIGRATING THRU THE
WRN USA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SE FROM MT INTO WRN NEB/KS. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT N AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. PRES WILL CONT
TO FALL WITHIN THE LEE TROF AS THE INTERSECTING FRONTS OCCLUDE
AROUND LOW PRES NEAR THE WY/MT BORDER.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: WONDERFUL! SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT WITH
ALMOST NO WIND. AMAZING ESPECIALLY FOR MID-AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
NOT BEEN AS WARM AS ADVERTISED. WE HAD TO LOWER HIGHS WITH AN
EARLY AFTN UPDATE.

TONIGHT: CLEAR TO START...BUT TURNING P/CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING. A MILD NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SE.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL (NEAR 50F).

BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS FCST MID-LVL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH RESULTS IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS
OFFERING MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 430 J/KG. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/EC/GEM ARE DRY AS WELL AS THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS)...BUT AM UNEASY ABOUT THIS DRY FCST. CONTEMPLATED INSERTING
A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FOG: AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE MVFR STRATUS THAT LINGERED MUCH OF
THE MORNING OVER IA/MO AND ERN KS AND HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. THAT`S
WHERE DWPTS ARE IN THE 50S AND NOT MIXING OUT. SE WINDS COULD
TRANSPORT THIS INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SOME FOG. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE. DWPTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THIS EVE. NO FOG IS IN THE FCST AS OF NOW.

SAT: P/CLOUDY WITH ACCAS BEFORE NOON...THEN WITH CIRROSTRATUS
PATCHES AFTERNOON. WINDY AND WARMER AND S WINDS GUST 30-40 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
EDGING CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN WY
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER 50KTS AND CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WAA AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DRY LINE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ALONG
THE NEB/SD BORDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND OUR AREA IS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
OUR EAST SUNDAY AFTN AND IF SYSTEM/BOUNDARY SLOW AT ALL OUR
EASTERN ZONES COULD BE INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS LOW POPS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM...ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR SETTLING IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK IN
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAMES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE ROCKIES EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF YET. THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT/DRY
LINE POSITIONS WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME AND WILL DETERMINE WHERE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE...WHICH CURRENTLY FAVORS AREAS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ESPECIALLY IF SYSTEM SLOWS AND
FRONTAL POSITIONS CHANGE. THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE DEFORMATION/
WRAPAROUND ACROSS NEBRASKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH PCPN
CHCS DECREASING TO THE SOUTH IN THE DRY SLOT ACROSS KS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT AND REMAINS COOL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY THEN HOW QUICKLY PCPN CHCS RETURN WITH THE NEXT LOW
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MODELS ARE TRENDING
SLOWER AND SUGGEST FRIDAY SHLD REMAIN DRY WITH PCPN CHCS RETURNING
HEADING INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT DEVIATE FM ENSEMBLES WITH LOW
POPS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WIND.
WIND SHEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SURFACE WIND DURING THE
DAY. WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THE DAY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS OVER 30KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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