Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230927
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MAIN FEATURE THIS MORNING IS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SPINNING
ROUGHLY OVER THE CENTRAL NEB/IA BORDER. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE CWA...WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER
IA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACORSS THE CWA...RESULTING IN
NWRLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. 3 AM TEMPS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...UPPER
20S IN PLACE IN FAR NRN LOCATIONS.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED MUCH...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
THE E/NE AFTER SUNRISE...ENDING UP CENTERED MORE OVER THE IA/MN/IA
BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BECOMING MORE ELONGATED IN
NATURE...THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS BACK TO
THE SW...LINGERING IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOWING SNOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH/EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THAT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INTO THE TRI CITIES AREAS WILL BE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW PRECIP REFOCUSING ACROSS THE
SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOCATIONS GENERALLY ACROSS SC NEB WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW. DURING THE
12-18Z PERIOD TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SNOW
TOTALS...WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A
YORK TO ALMA LINE...LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON TURNS TO THE SERN THIRD
OR SO OF THE CWA...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NC
KS INTO FAR SERN NEB NEAR AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONE
CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPS AND RESULTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...AS
MODELS SHOWING TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE BELOW ZERO SO EXPECTING
PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW...BUT COULD BE A PRETTY WET SNOW FOR SOME
LOCATIONS /LIKE THE SE THIS AFTERNOON/. BY THE TIME ITS ALL SAID
AND DONE...THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE THATS BEEN ADVERTISED CONTINUES
TO LOOK REASONABLE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL SHORT OF EVEN 1 INCH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND KEPT A MENTION OF
SOME BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA...BEFORE THINGS PUSH FURTHER SE AND POTENTIALLY BECOME A
WETTER SNOW THATD BE HARD TO BLOW AROUND...WHILE FURTHER NW
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO TREND DOWN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING SNOW/FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN CLOUD COVER...AS
WELL AS WITH WINDS SPEEDS. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. RIDGING IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THUS ALLOWING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STARTING
LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THIS SECOND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STARTING ON
FRIDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA.
THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS MOST
OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THUS PUSHING THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION TO OUR EAST AND BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW PRODUCTION. AT THIS
TIME IT ALSO APPEARS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
AND THUS...NOTHING MORE THAN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S THROUGH MOST
LOCATIONS. A COOLER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION BEHIND A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE...THUS PROMOTING A
COOLING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND AND 30S ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER AIR MASS THEN EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING THROUGH
THEN EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE AREAS...AND EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE STARTING TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
AREA...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS ONCE MORE STEADY SNOW MOVES IN.
EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL WITH WINDS...WHICH WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY...SUSTAINED ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP


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