Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 192052
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...An Extended Stretch of Dangerous Heat is in Progress and will
last thru Fri Most Areas and Peak on Thu...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Dangerous heat is the main story. Heat advisory conts as posted
for today. After coordination with neighboring offices...most of
our Neb counties have been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning
for 4 consecutive days of high Heat Index values.

A hot subtropical high (500 mb heights +2 standard deviations
above normal) has enveloped much of the Cntrl and Srn USA with
trofs along the E and W Coasts.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Excessive Heat Warning conts thru Fri for most of S-cntrl Neb. Did
not include Furnas/Harlan counties as dwpts mix out enough there
to group them with our KS counties which are now in a Heat
Advisory thru Fri. Considered putting Jewell/Mitchell in the EHW
but confidence was not high enough on dwpts.

The pattern mentioned in the ST section above will remain in
place thru Thu. A seasonably strong shortwave trof will get kicked
inland into the Pac NW Thu night. This trof will cont E and begin
quashing the ridge Fri. The high will retrograde into the Desert
SW with fairly zonal flow occurring over the Nrn USA. This should
allow for some slight chances for very spotty tstm activity.

The heat peaks Thu. Based on fcst highs and dwpts...the heat index
could be as high as 110-115F for Grand Island...Aurora...York up
to Columbus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Significant Wx: LLWS develops tonight by 06Z and conts thru 13Z.

This afternoon: VFR. Decreasing clouds will cont with sct altocu
and cirro-alto- stratus at or above 13K ft departing to the E.
S-SSW winds will increase and G20-25 kts. This has yet to occur at
GRI and not exactly sure when it will begin...but HSI is already
11G20KTS at 18Z. So brought it into GRI at 19Z. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR and essentially SKC. S winds 10-15 kts...but would
not be surprised to see occasional 15G25 kts. LLWS develops
around 06Z. Confidence: High

Wed thru 18Z: VFR SKC. S winds 10-15 kts G20-25 kts as initial
expansion of the boundary layer mixes into what remains of the
low-lvl jet. Confidence: High

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-084>087.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-084>087.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ082-083.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley


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