Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Only forecast concern in the short term will be high and low

Current water vapor imagery along with upper air data showing
the northern stream fairly active with one low near Hudson Bay
and another approaching the Pacific northwest. The central Plains
is under the influence of a weak ridge, with a minor trough in the
desert southwest. At the surface, a 1018 mb high is sitting over
central Neb, with a weak trough situated from NE to SW Kansas. All
of this is resulting in clear skies and light winds for our CWA.

Not expecting anything in terms of active weather through Friday
morning. Aloft it appears the Pacific trough will move onshore,
while ridging builds into the midwest part of the CONUS. The
primary surface high should build into the Tenn Valley, with lee
troughing along the front range of the Rockies. This will tighten
up the surface pressure gradient a bit and allow winds to turn
back to southerly. Not expecting strong winds for today as they
should be in the 10-15 mph range. High temps continue to be a few
degrees warmer than guidance lately so have raised the previous
highs a couple degrees for most areas. With increasing moisture
and south winds, lows tonight should be in the mid 50s which will
be 10-15 degrees warmer than present lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Still not expecting much in the way of active weather through the
next 7 days. Friday into Saturday will be on the windy side as
the scenario of high pressure to the east and low pressure west
continues. The pressure gradient tightens up to around 20 mb
across Neb and KS. It appears the highest winds should occur Fri
afternoon with good mixing in the KS part of our CWA, although it
will also be fairly windy in Neb. It continues to look like small
PoPs are in still in order for Friday night as decent warm
advection ahead of the western trough can be seen on the 310K
isentropic surface progs.

On Saturday the main upper wave and associated surface cold front
swing east and through the area. The primary operational models
are in decent agreement with the timing, pushing the cold front
through our CWA between 12 & 18Z. The latest NAM was just a bit
faster than the GFS and EC. If that pans out, most of our CWA
might miss out on tstm chances. For now will leave rain chances as
is, which means the eastern third of our CWA would have the
better chance. Either way, Sat is looking like a raw day with
cooler temps, strong northwest winds and cloudy skies. Anyone
traveling south or east on Sat should pay attention to the
forecast as tstm chances certainly increase in those locations.

The front should pass through quickly and Sunday will be decent
with temps close to average for this time of year. Another cold
front is slated to pass through sometime on Monday. Temps should
cool down behind the front which will either be Monday or more
likely Tuesday depending on the speed of the front.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period as clouds
will not be a factor. Surface winds have gone light and variable
with high pressure sitting over the central Neb. VAD wind profile
from the KUEX 88D is showing some stronger northerly low level
winds off the deck close to 30 kt but expect this to weaken
overnight and won`t add LLWS. During the daytime Thu the surface
high will slide southeast and lee troughing develops west. Thus
winds will shift back to the south around 10 kt. Models are
showing a decent low level jet setting up around 03Z Fri so will
add LLWS towards end of forecast period.




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