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000
FXUS63 KGID 251521
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z TAFS THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE GRI/EAR TAFS WERE AMENDED AT 1515Z TO REMOVE LATE MORNING
GUSTINESS. THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST N OF ODX AND THE PRES GRADIENT
IS WEAK. THERE IS A WSHFT THAT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...FROM SW TO NW. THERE ARE SOME DECENT PRES RISES
BEHIND THIS WSHFT. ALL FCST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BBW/TIF/VTN ARE ALL
GUSTING 21-27 KTS AT 15Z. SO WE MAY NEED TO PUT GUSTY WINDS BACK
INTO THE TAFS AT 18Z. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR. THIS WOULD BE A
PROBLEM FOR AERIAL APPLICATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ063-064-074>077-
     083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB