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000
FXUS63 KGID 110626
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
126 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NEAR
ADVISORY TO ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE OF 0.01 TO 0.20 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARM SFC
AND NEAR SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

WIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY UNIFORM IN FORECASTING SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
FROM THE TRI-CITIES SOUTH. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE 30 MPH SUSTAINED / 45 MPH GUST ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUST INCLUDE THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY. OUR KANSAS
ZONES SEEM MOST LIKELY TO HIT THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON
THE MULTITUDE OF MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION MAY HELP
TO BRING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN FROM ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS COULD BE
OVER 50 KTS SO THE WIND IS CERTAINLY PRETTY STRONG RIGHT OFF THE
SFC.

PRECIPITATION TYPE...PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY ON TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION. MOST FORECAST MODELS HAVE QPF OF 0.01 TO 0.20 WHICH
SEEMS ON TRACK. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START OFF PRETTY WARM/ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BY LATER IN THE
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS BUT STANDS A BETTER THAN 50/50 CHANCE
OF TURNING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
TURNING TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS IS LESS THAN 50/50 DUE TO
THE EVEN WARMER NEAR SFC LAYER. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING
JUST ABOVE FREEZING DURING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY
ON AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LIES WITH HOW
MUCH LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS LEFT...A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  RIGHT AT 00Z...THE
AXIS LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...AND
WILL BE QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FELT
INHERITED POPS HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...AND MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT BY EVENING IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS CONTINUES TO PRESENT SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH A POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX EARLY ON
BEFORE SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW.  HOWEVER...IS STILL A CHANCE THAT BY
THE TIME THE ENTIRE AREA SWITCHES COMPLETELY OVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE
DWINDLING DOWN/SLIDING EAST...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER A HALF INCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY...WITH TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE.  MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH SHARP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY OVER THE REGION...IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE COOLEST DAY EXPECTED IN THE WED-FRI
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.  AND BY COOLEST DAY...TALKING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...EXPECTING A PRETTY NICE DAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL IN NATURE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND AN OPEN WAVE OVER
WRN/CENTRAL CANADA CREEPS CLOSER TO THE CWA. THINGS LOOKING
DRY...AND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...MODELS SHOWING INCREASING TEMPS
ALOFT...WITH THE W/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO CLIMB
AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THAT CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE
OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY FILLS...MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...WHILE THAT OTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.  THE CWA IS
SITTING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF FORCING...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH.  OUTSIDE
OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE AND ANOTHER SHOT OF NWRLY
WINDS...REALLY NO NOTABLE IMPACT...AS HIGHS FRIDAY LOOK TO ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ESP THE SECOND HALF.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY REGION SLIDES SOUTH...AND RIDGING BUILDS ALONG/JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...RESULTING IN A REAMPLIFYING PATTERN/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO SLIDE THROUGH THAT NWRLY FLOW...BUT THE IMPACT FELT
ACROSS THE CWA IS A LITTLE UP IN THE AIR. NO MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME ARE SHOWING
LITTLE/NOTHING OUTSIDE OF THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS LOW AND ACROSS A WIDER AREA...AND THINGS WILL BE
FINE TUNED AS IT GETS CLOSER.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOK TO SWING
THROUGH...AND HIGHS BY SUNDAY FORECAST TO BE BACK DOWN NEAR AVERAGE
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

MONDAY LOOKING TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST
DISTURBANCE...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60 AS
WARMER AIR STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THIS IS A FAIRLY COMPLEX TAF PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS ISSUES INVOLVING
DETERIORATING CEILINGS BEHIND A COLD FRONT...VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH SNOW FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE MAGNITUDE OF STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY/VARIABLE
SURFACE BREEZES AND ONLY PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY SHARP ACCELERATION IN
SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 40KT WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEN BY 11Z EXPECT THE INITIAL ONSET OF
STEADIER NORTH BREEZES...AND BY 15Z EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO
HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
19Z...WITH THE MAIN PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY STEADY SNOW THEN
CONCENTRATING DURING THE 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY IN MID-
RANGE IFR CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD A CONCENTRATED
SNOW BAND DEVELOP. EXPECT CEILING TO FLUCTUATE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
HIGH-END IFR AND LOW-END MVFR DURING THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH SNOW AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF SLUSH. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
STOUT DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
19Z-01Z...WHICH CONTAINS SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 30KT WITH
GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OVER 40KT. BY AROUND
SUNSET...EXPECT ANY SNOW AND RESULTANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT 01Z ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NORTHERLY WINDS...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE BREEZY WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH