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000
FXUS63 KGID 012348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NOT A BAD END TO THE WEEKEND...STILL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BUT IT WAS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY ZONAL...WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SRN COAST OF CA...AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE LACK OF DISTURBANCES HAS MADE FOR
A QUIET DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE...A PRETTY WEAK PATTERN IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...INFLUENCES BY HIGH PRESSURE SET UP NEAR
THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. 3 PM TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF THE FORECAST HIGHS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW LIES WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THAT MAIN SYSTEM OVER
THE SWRN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOT ALL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS AFFECTING THE CWA.
HAD INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THE
MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THOSE CHANCES...LEFT THEM IN THE
FORECAST. AGAIN...SHOULD SNOW DEVELOP/MOVE IN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BATCH OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD PRECIP-FREE. EXPECTING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES
FOR TOMORROW IS LOW...WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS/GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS SIMILAR TO TODAY...WHICH
IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH MID 30S/NEAR 40 IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BIGGEST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

THE LONG TERM COULD BE A BIT OF A MESS RIGHT OFF THE BAT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...AND ARCTIC
AIR BEHIND IT. A BLOCKING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CASCADES/GREAT BASING WILL ENCOURAGE AN
APPEARANCE OF A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL INDUCE VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PERTURBATION INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE MAY BE A NEAR STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...WHERE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE
ABOVE FREEZING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TO TELL WHERE EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED...BUT IT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AT THE SURFACE.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
EVEN EXTENDING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CLASSIC DRIZZLE SCENARIO WITH A DEEP DRY MID-LEVEL
COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN LOWER LEVELS...
SATURATED LOWER-LEVEL AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE LOOK SOLID AT ROUGHLY THE 280K THETA PLANE.
BUFKIT/GFS HAVE FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE NAM...WHICH HAS AN EVEN
STRONGER SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THAN EARLIER RUNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL AT THE
SURFACE...AND UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS
TEMPERATURES COULD BE HOVERING PRETTY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. BOTH BUFKIT AND NAM
INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE COULD END
UP WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD ARCTIC
AIR SHOVES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE EARLIER IN THE DAY AND PLUNGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE RISES COULD APPROACH 6 MB/3 HOURS OR 12 MB/6 HOURS. DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT THIS
CERTAINLY WOULD FIT THE OLD ADVISORY CRITERIA. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND I WONDER IF
WE WILL SEE MUCH AT ALL...EVEN IN OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO BETTER
DYNAMICS.

ONCE THE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHUTS
OFF ANY SHOT OF FLURRY ACTIVITY AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH SOME
COLD AIR. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS USUALLY THE SMART
CHOICE WITH ARCTIC INTRUSIONS...AND THIS KNOCKED DOWN TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE 20 FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH
SUPERBLEND DID NOTICEABLY BUMP DOWN SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE PREVIOUS LOWER 50S TO THE MID-UPPER 40S AS A QUICK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 24HR TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
JUST BEYOND THE END TIME OF THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING...WHEN THE WIND WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS...BUT WILL KEEP
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY