929
FXUS63 KGID 241149
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rounds of scattered thunderstorms will remain
  possible today through Thursday, generally favoring the late
  afternoon into overnight periods.

- Widespread severe weather and heavy rain is not expected.
  However, isolated instances of marginally severe hail/wind,
  along with quick bursts of 1-2" of rain, will be possible.

- Temperatures trend warmer, closer to seasonable levels, today
  through Thursday before a return to hot and mainly dry
  conditions for Friday and into the weekend.

- The next cold front looks to arrive Sun/Sun night and bring
  our next chance for moisture and drop temperatures back to
  seasonable levels for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Quiet conditions are in place early this morning as the area
remains to the cool side of yesterday`s cold front. Cool
conditions will continue through the morning hours as the area
remains entrenched under widespread stratus. May also be some
patchy areas of light to moderate fog over portions of south
central Nebraska for a few hours around dawn thanks to T/Td
spreads of 1-3 degrees and weak Erly upslope flow. While
mechanical mixing will remain weak through midday, essentially
max annual sun angle should help to lift and dissipate the
stratus gradually this afternoon. This will coincide with the
aforementioned boundary from yesterday becoming more diffuse and
lifting northward as a weak warm front. Thus, no changes made to
forecast highs for today (upper 70s far N, to upper 80s along/S
of the state line) as should see a quick warmup as clouds thin
out this afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms should redevelop at some point late this
afternoon into evening, though latest hi-res guidance and HRRR
trends remain mixed on details - such as exactly where, when,
and coverage. Typically a northward retreating warm front in
late June would raise expectations for organized severe
weather...however that doesn`t appear to be the case this go-
around due to weak wind shear and relatively poor lapse rates.
Seasonably modest instability (CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) and
effective deep layer shear of 20-25kt could support an isolated,
marginally severe storm, or two...but organized severe risk is
unlikely. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook features a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for the entire forecast area to cover this
potential. More probable issue, if there`s going to be one,
could be periodic/scattered instances of high rain rates and
locally heavy rainfall amounts. 00Z EPS puts PWATs at 1.8-2.0"
after 21Z into the overnight...which is over 150 percent of
normal or 2.5-3.0 standard deviations above normal. Could
certainly envision localized instances of 1-2" in only 30-60
min. Fortunately, these types of rates shouldn`t be widespread
or persistent...thus keeping impacts isolated.

Kind of a wash, rinse, repeat for Wednesday as the AM to early
aftn hrs appear mainly dry. May not be quite the amount of low
clouds in the AM, so earlier start to the warmup, along with
stronger Srly flow, should support warm/hot temperatures in the
mid 80s to mid 90s from N to S. Similar to today, expect
scattered thunderstorms to develop once again during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. This round looks to favor
areas W through N of the Tri-Cities, at least initially, as
activity develops along a SW to NE boundary/baroclinic zone.
Once again, instability is a bit modest for late June...but
there are some indications for MAYBE some slightly stronger
deep layer shear thanks to substantial low level veering and
tail end of 25-35kt flow between 700mb and 500mb. Marginally
severe hail, 60mph downburst wind gusts, and locally heavy rain
will again be the primary threats with strongest core.
Thunderstorms will be possible just about anywhere, though SREF
calibrated severe probs are indeed slightly higher than today,
and focused highest over areas along/N of Hwy 92.

Models sag a weak trough/cold front into the area on Thursday,
so highs should fall back into the 80s as scattered shower/storm
chances continue for one more day. Still expect a period of
mainly dry conditions and hotter temperatures to return Friday
and persist into the weekend. Latest blend puts hottest temps on
Saturday with widespread highs in the 90s - perhaps even low
100s in favored warm spots in the SW part of forecast area.
There are still some sporadic low-end PoPs each day, but this
appears to be tied to convection that may or may not move off
the high plains during the overnight hours. A more coherent
trough/surface front looks to arrive some time later on Sun into
Sun night. This should drop temps back to seasonable levels and
bring us next decent chance (40-50 percent) for rain. Hopefully
we can spread out the multiple rain chances over the next week
and give everyone some needed moisture after last weekend`s
multiple-day bout of very hot and very windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: IFR to LIFR CIGs, MVFR to IFR VSBYs for
another few hours this morning. At least MVFR CIGs may return
tonight.

Today: GRI has recently fallen to LIFR CIGs/MVFR VSBYs, but EAR
is still hanging onto IFR CIGs/VFR VSBYs. May see a slight
deterioration through 13Z, then slow but steady improvement
thereafter thanks to high late-June sun angle. Should return to
MVFR by around midday, then mostly likely VFR mid to late
afternoon. At least iso showers/storms will become possible
towards late aftn (possibly scattered per some model guidance),
with chances continuing through the evening. Still quite a bit
of uncertainty on timing/coverage, so kept it PROB30 with this
TAF package. Winds will veer from ENE this morning, to ESE/SE
this afternoon, but remain fairly light at 6-9kt. Confidence:
timing/coverage of storms - low, otherwise - medium to high.

Tonight: At least some shower and thunderstorm chance will
continue through the late evening, then more of an isolated
shower chance late overnight. Again, confidence way too low to
go anything more than PROB30s attm. CIGs are also a bit
uncertain. Gut feeling is that MVFR CIGs could return towards
midnight, but some guidance is earlier, and some keep VFR.
Latest NBM gives only 20-25% chance for IFR CIGs, but worth
keeping an eye on. Am not expecting VSBY issues from fog given
steady Srly winds around 7-11kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies