Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261736
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

JUST COMPLETED THE FIRST MINOR UPDATE OF THE DAY. AS
EXPECTED...THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT IT WAS NOT NEARLY AS DENSE/IMPACTFUL AS THURS AM.
PRECIP-WISE...STILL EXPECTING A DRY DAY CWA-WIDE BUT AM KEEPING A
WARY EYE ON A SMATTERING OF MID-LEVEL CUMULUS THAT ARE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREA AT THIS TIME...AS THE MEANDERING
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OVER IA/MO SEEMS TO BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO KICK UP THESE CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME ONGOING
ISOLATED SHOWERS CLOSER TO ITS CORE. TEMP-WISE...BASED ON WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WHEN HIGHS ROSE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED...ALREADY DECIDED TO BUMP UP TODAYS HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SEVERAL AREAS. THIS COULD BRING
A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF MID-80S VERSUS LOWER-80S...BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
82-86.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THRU THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE WEST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN PLACE IN BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A RIDGE WELL EAST
OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.

HAVE BEEN MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL DATA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOR
SIGNS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMP/DP SPREADS CLOSE IN...AND SO FAR
THE LOWEST VSBY RESTRICTION HAVE BEEN AROUND 7SM.  SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES INTO NE NEB STAND THE
BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER VSBYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL HERE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
KS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE/MEANDER TO THE NW INTO NORTHERN
IA/EASTERN NEB WHILE TO THE WEST...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS
WITH THE LOW CLOSING OFF IN CA.  THE WEATHER REGIME WILL BECOME
BLOCKED DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND AN EAST COAST RIDGE...WITH
THE INTERIOR CONUS IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA...DESPITE THE RAP WHICH TRIES TO GENERATE
MINOR QPF/PCPN JUST TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEANDERING
UPPER LOW. HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS/CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THIS AFTN JUST ABOVE H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 20KTS. THE SFC GRADIENT ALSO
TIGHTENS AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE. AFTN HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S LOOK ON TARGET IN THE MILD FALL AIRMASS...WITH
LOWS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE.

DURING THIS TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THIS LOT WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND AS A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PREVAILING
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH IN FACT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS AND
ESSENTIALLY NIL RISK OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES
WILL AVERAGE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH GUST
POTENTIAL UP INTO THE 18-20KT RANGE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER SUSTAINED BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE
THAT WILL NEED MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS IS THE STRENGTH OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT...AS SOUTH WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO GENERALLY THE 35-38KT RANGE WITHIN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
THE DIFFERENCE IN OVERALL BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ROUGHLY 1000 FEET AGL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE
25-30KT AS OPPOSED TO 30+KT...HAVE DEEMED THIS JUST BELOW THE
MAGNITUDE WORTHY OF A FORMAL LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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