Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 170542
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO N OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU THIS
EVENING OTHERWISE DENSE FOG IS A HIGH PROBABILITY AGAIN TONIGHT...

WE HAVE HAD PROBLEMS PUBLISHING TO THE NATIONAL DATABASE /NDFD/
BUT OUR LOCAL DATABASE HAS BEEN PURGED AND WE NOW APPEAR TO BE
FINE. ALL OUR FCST GRAPHICS AND POINT-AND-CLICK ON OUR WEBSITE
SHOULD UPDATE SHORTLY.

ALOFT: THE FLOW IS COMPLEX BUT GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WAS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD...A SUBTLE TROF WILL
SCOOT E THRU SD THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND WILL MOVE INTO WY/CO AND THEN CROSS THE
FCST AREA 12AM-12PM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE SUN
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE: A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED PRES PATTERN WAS IN PLACE...
DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES. ONE LOW LOW WAS ALONG THE MO/IA
BORDER AND WILL CONT DEPARTING THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW WAS OVER
SD. THIS LOW MAY DROP TO THE SD/NE BORDER BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD
MOVE LITTLE THRU SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE LEE-SIDE TROF WILL
REMAIN TO THE W AND PRES WILL FALL TOMORROW...INCREASING THE PRES
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY AND HUMID...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E
OF HWY 281. HIGHS WILL PEAK AROUND 5 AM.

A LINE OF CU IS DEVELOPING IN A LINE OF CONVERGENCE S FROM THE SD
VORT MAX AND THIS EXTENDED INTO CNTRL NEB. CIN IS WEAK IN THIS
CORRIDOR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG. WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM
OR TWO DEVELOP NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 15
KTS. SO A BRIEFLY STRONG/LOW-END SEVERE TSTM IS POSSIBLE.

THE MVFR STRATUS AT AUH/JYR/HJH/BIE AT 19Z SIGNALS TROUBLE FOR
TONIGHT. THESE AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPS /MAX DWPT AT TIME OF HIGH TEMP/ HIGH.

TONIGHT: AN ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE NE OF THE TRI-CITIES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME SKIFFS OF MINOR CLOUD DEBRIS
WILL DRIFT IN FROM TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FAR TO THE W.

FOG: IT WILL BE A PROBLEM ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 BY MIDNIGHT AND
EXPECT IT WILL BE DENSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MOS/LAMP GUIDANCE
ARE ALL OVER IT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP PAST THE CROSS-OVER TEMPS AND
RICHARDSON # VIA BUFKIT SUPPORT FOG. SO BELIEVE WE WILL NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WE ALMOST PULLED THE TRIGGER WITH THIS
PACKAGE...BUT DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE IN ISOLATION WITHOUT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE E/SE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL NEED ONE
AND IT COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN: MORNING FOG LIFTS INTO STRATUS AND BREAKS UP BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNNY OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. TEMPS CONT TO CLIMB. IT WILL
BE HOT /MID 90S/ FROM FURNAS COUNTY DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THIS WILL BE A WARM PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
GENERALLY RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS KANSAS. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THE OVERALL UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK IS QUASI ZONAL WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SLIGHT RIDGING IN THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A QUICK MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED BY
SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. MOST FORECAST MODELS TRACK THESE THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY NEBRASKA ZONES...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG WITH ENOUGH MUCAPE THAT COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THE STORMS FOR A LONGER TRACK MCS KIND OF EVENT. 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000
J/KG. THEREFORE...SEVERAL STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND JUST THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AND HOT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S
NEBRASKA TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT IN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONE OF OUR BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORT WAVES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED
OR TIMED DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITING THE POPS AND REDUCING
CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A MINOR UPPER RIDGE...STILL
ABLE TO CATCH A FEW SHORT WAVES...BUT ALSO A BIT TOASTY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY WINDS...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY...SO KEPT PREVAILING
VSBYS MVFR...WITH TEMPO LIFR CIGS AND NEAR LIFR VSBYS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THEN BURNS
OFF...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS EXPECT BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...AND
BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL FAIRLY LOW...OPTED TO JUST MENTION A VCTS
AND CB AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI


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