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000
FXUS63 KGID 041143
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TYPE IN THE FIRST HOUR
OR SO OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE COULD BE A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET POSSIBLE AS THE PROFILE COOLS
RAPIDLY AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BOTH THE NAM/GFS ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING BANDED PRECIPITATION ALONG AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH
SHIFTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
TRENDED POPS UP WITH MORE CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PCPN TYPE IS STILL TRICKY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY/WARM
MID LAYER JUST BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WHICH QUICKLY
SATURATES.  COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE THE SNOW...BUT
CARRIED JUST SNOW FOR NOW.  SREF PLUMES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST
DRYING OUT.  COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY THEN
WARMER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTN.

WARM AIR AND RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY IS STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.  AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
50S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUGGEST...THEN EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR.  A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHCS RETURN...WITH
THE BETTER CHCS FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY...WHICH
SHIFT INTO KS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS SYSTEM TRANSLATES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE INIT PROCEDURE IN THE EXTENDED.  SATURDAY
WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ARE STILL LOOKING QUITE MILD WITH SUBTLE RIDGING TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR OUR AREA...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEY ARE FAIRLY THIN AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY...TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. LATE THIS EVENING LOWER
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST
AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB