Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191123
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING IN THE NV/UT REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ND...BRINGING
CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
WEST...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY KEEP THOSE AREAS WITH FROST
CONCERNS FROM DROPPING MORE THAN A FEW MORE DEGREES...ODX
CURRENTLY SITTING AT 40 DEGREES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTING N/NE
INTO FAR SWRN KS...DRIVEN BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. AIDED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
DISTURBANCE...THIS INCREASED LIFT AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THAT N/NE-WARD TREK THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. DID MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS...WITH SHORT TERM/HI
RES MODELS SHOWING THINGS IF ANYTHING COMING IN A TOUCH SLOWER.
DID KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSTABILITY
REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH.

AT THE SURFACE...THAT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ND WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...KEEPING WINDS EASTERLY
THROUGH TODAY...AND MORE NERLY AS WE GET THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THAT SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. RANGE ACROSS THE CWA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50 /SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NO HIT 50/ IN THE WEST...MID 50S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO FALL IN THE NEAR 40 TO MID 40S
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY  COOL MORNING LOWS ON THURSDAY...WHICH DESPITE BEING MAY
21ST MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT GETTING MORE
RAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON YET ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL BE WEAKENING AND WORKING ITS WAY EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MANY
PLACES MAY ACTUALLY SEE THE RAIN END AROUND OR BEFORE
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. WE ARE THEN
LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE CONCERN WILL
THEN TURN TO THE ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S AND
THAT MIGHT BE IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES.
THEREFORE...WE WOULD NOT HAVE TO FALL TOO FAR TO GET INTO FROST
TERRITORY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATE THAT POSSIBILITY OF FROST PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AS WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ALL TO NEARLY ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA JUST WARM ENOUGH TO AVOID FROST. FORECAST
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MANY CLOUDS WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IF YOU
LIVE WEST OR NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES YOU MAY WANT TO KEEP TABS ON
OUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IF FROST IS A CONCERN OF
YOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN ROTATE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. GULF MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLY DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT MORE GENERAL RAIN AND AT LEAST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME NOT REALLY A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND SO WILL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ON
SATURDAY...BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE SOUTHWEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH AND WHERE THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE. CONFIDENCE ON THE SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IF LOWER THAN NORMAL.

MONDAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST TO RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL COME IN
CLOSER TO/AFTER MIDDAY. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WHERE A SHIELD OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN SLIDING
SOUTH. INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS...SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY BE LESS OF AN ISSUE THE FURTHER
SOUTH IT GOES. LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVE...DO HAVE LOWERING CEILINGS TO 1K FT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN E/NERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



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