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000
FXUS63 KGID 010523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

BEEN A VERY NICE START TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEAR
SKIES IN PLACE.  CONTINUING TO SEE QUIET ZONAL/SLIGHTLY NWRLY FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/MEX...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY E/SE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK PATTERN OVER THE AREA IS
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE A COOL FRONT
SITS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM REMAINS A DRY ONE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE AREA...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE CWA.  THE FIRST IS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS PUSH FROM THAT DISTURBANCE
AND STALLING OUT.  THIS WILL BRING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL LOOKING TO BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.  THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NE TO MID 50S IN THE
SW.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AM KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY...EVEN
THOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT OTHER MODELS SUPPORT KEEPING
THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRICKY.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KICK OFF IN
A RELATIVELY WARM SCENARIO WITHIN A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME.
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE IN AN ESSENTIALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL STRETCH
IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION FROM THE PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS NORTHERN BRANCH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN A STRONG JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS STREAK COULD
BE NEAR 160 KTS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST. THE POSITION OF THE JET MAX
INDICATES THAT THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH
INTO THE UNITED STATES AND WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY TOWARD MID-WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AS
IT SHOULD MAKE AN EAST/NORTHEAST TURN AFTER IT ENTERS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE BASE TO
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF REALLY HOLDING OFF ON THE COLD AIR...AND SO DOES THE GEM TO
SOME EXTENT. THE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD AIR FASTER. THE NAM HOLDS
OFF MUCH OF THE COLD AIR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AREA. WE HAVE BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...AND I
HAVE A SENSE THAT OUR SOUTH COULD BE WARMER THAN THE CURRENT UPPER
50S WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST...AND IF THE COLD FRONT HOLDS UP
ENOUGH...THE TRI-CITY AREA OF GRAND ISLAND...KEARNEY...AND HASTINGS
COULD WIND UP BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER. I TRENDED UP WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH...GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING WARMER WHILE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING COOLER. I AM FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES
SINCE THE GFS TIMING OF THE FASTER COLD AIR SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...SO I HAVE TRENDED WARMER IN TURN FOR TUESDAY.

ONCE THE COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD AIR WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 20S IF THAT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS COLD ENOUGH.
MOST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE EITHER NORTH OF THE
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...OR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MERGER OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SO PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG FACTOR IN THE FORECAST. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
DURING MID-WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MOST NOTABLY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS BY 18Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT