556
FXUS64 KMAF 031950
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mild tonight, hot tomorrow, mild tomorrow night. That pretty much
sums it up as we finally get a break from convective activity (at
least in the short term) as much drier air works its way eastward
across the CWA. Heat risk will be greatest from the Big Bend east
through Terrell County; however, there`s some uncertainty how far
northward to pull an expected Heat Advisory for Tuesday. I`ll let
later shifts make the decision on how far north to extend it. The
mercury will be on the upswing with temperatures as hot as 115 at
Rio Grande Village and in the 100-105 degree range across all but
the western Low Rolling Plains. Nighttime moisture migration will
be confined to eastern zones, meaning that western areas will see
little in the way of RH recovery. It is early June, and getting a
break from the severe weather will be welcome; the heat, however,
will not be for many.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Interesting long term portion to the forecast. A weak backdoor
cold front (more than likely, a reinforced outflow boundary) will
slide into much of the area Wednesday, bringing a temporary
respite from the heat; however, areas along the Big Bend will not
see much relief. Things should stay quiet Wednesday as the cap
holds and ridging aloft keeps a kibosh on convective chances. As
we get into Thursday through Sunday, however, we may see a return
of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity (mainly over the
mountains and adjacent terrain), with the greatest chances over
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Moisture will advect back to
the west as ensemble clusters indicate a subtle shift of the ridge
to the east and a weakness in the subtropical flow. Not sure what
to make of convective chances over the northern Basin other than
what might advect off the higher terrain of east-central New
Mexico. What makes this interesting is that there`s the potential
for some dry lightning strikes over the higher terrain, and this
obviously will pose a threat for fire starts where fuels are
receptive and little (if any) precipitation has fallen in weeks.
In any event, temperatures will warm back up close to, if not
exceeding the century mark, for many areas as we close out the
weekend. Overnight lows will be a few degrees above normal given
the expected increase in moisture and sensible heat release from
the soils.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Gusty west winds this afternoon weaken and
become southwest this evening, then strengthen, becoming gusty
west again by mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67 104  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   74 106  73 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71 104  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  92  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    65 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  95  60  98 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     68 102  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69 102  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     68 105  70 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...99