Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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870
FXUS64 KMAF 170452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Thunderstorms are expected to
remain east of all the terminals through the TAF period with a
few mid clouds and increasing high clouds. Winds should become
light by 07z through late Sunday morning. Expecting winds to
become mainly southwest at 10 to 15 mph and gusty Sunday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Update to remove NPW headline for GDP Mtns. Main concern is back
building storms across the Lower Trans Pecos next few hrs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Wind advisory has expired.

DISCUSSION...
Even though winds are still gusty, we have issued an update to the
products to let wind advisory expire. Winds across the area will
continue to decrease, except GDP Mtns where warning is still in
effect until 03Z.

Dryline is along a line from near Snyder to Big Lake to Dryden. Mostly
non severe storms are expected in these areas through mid evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated westerly winds will subside over the next couple of hours.
Winds will become light and variable but will mostly be out of the
west.  Winds will strengthen slightly and come around to the
southwest Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas and southeast New Mexico can expect an active weather
pattern to continue through the coming week as a long wave trough
remains over the southwest and upper level disturbances rotate
around the trough and across the area.

This afternoon, the dryline/trough has pushed eastward to near a
line from Lamesa to west of Sanderson. East of the dryline,
surface-based CAPE values exceeded 3000. A few thunderstorms have
tried to develop in southwest Texas near the dryline, though
strong shear and dry air entrainment has inhibited significant
development. May see an isolated thunderstorm yet late afternoon
into early evening along and east of the dryline, mainly across
the lower trans-Pecos aided by stronger surface convergence and
deeper moisture. With strong instability and significant shear,
any storms that do develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

West to southwest winds have picked up significantly in response
to the surface pressure gradient and a swift mid-level flow
associated with passage of upper trough. High wind warning
verifying at GDP last couple of hours. Having a bit more trouble
achieving wind advisory criteria at the lower elevations. Would
still expect winds of 30 mph or greater over parts of southeast
New Mexico and mainly the higher elevations of southwest Texas
with isolated stronger winds elsewhere. No changes to current High
Wind Warning or Wind Advisory are planned.

Drier air pushing into the area overnight accompanied by clearing
skies will result in overnight lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
closer to ECMWF guidance.

A warm day is in store Sunday under the influence of abundant
sunshine, though a return flow of moisture will begin Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Monday as
the next upper level trough approaches and the moisture return
flow increases. Surface trough near the mountains Monday may
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday
evening. A cold front pushing through the Panhandle may also come
into play on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC seem to be somewhat similar,
showing the front pushing into the Permian Basin, providing for an
additional focus and isentropic lift over the cooler air. In
contrast, the NAM model hangs the front somewhat further north,
making it a lesser player in precipitation chances. Appears
prudent to go with the more aggressive blend, suggesting higher
rain chances and QPFs. This situation may need to be monitored for
the possibility of excessive rainfall.

Tuesday through Friday, little change in the weather pattern is
depicted with a surface trough near the Texas/New Mexico border or
mountain areas and a trough aloft over the southwest, with
occasional shortwaves enhancing lift. A quasi-stationary boundary
may also remain in the area through mid-week. Precipitation
chances will continue through the coming week with a few
opportunities for significant rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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