Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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980
FXUS64 KMAF 261546
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail in continued westerly flow next 24
hours except KMAF. Return flow is forecast to surge after sunset,
pushing the dryline N-NW thru KMAF, followed by a few hours of
MVFR stratus. Westerly flow will push this back east shortly after
sunrise, however. A few high clouds will be possible. Convective
temps will be too high for significant cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
No change from previous forecast. VFR wx today as dry west
increase to around 20kts at CNM by 19Z, elsewhere w-sw around
15kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas, as an 850mb thermal ridge remains anchored over the area,
and dry southwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface flow
result in downslope warming. 850mb temperatures look to top out
today at 29C to 30C, compared to yesterday`s 30C to 32C, thus
temperatures today will likely be a degree or two cooler than
yesterday for most, though it will hardly be noticeable. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 90s to
lower 100s areawide, with hottest temperatures expected through
the Rio Grande Valley, where highs could reach the 105-110 degree
range. The only exceptions will be across the higher terrain of
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, where highs will be in the
middle to upper 80s. The record high for Midland today is 100
degrees, which occurred on May 26, 1991. Given today`s forecast
high of 101 degrees, this record could fall. The hot temperatures
and continued dry, breezy conditions will result in critical fire
weather conditions across the west this afternoon and evening. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect, please see the Fire Weather
Discussion below for additional details.

Tonight, lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s, though a few
upper 50s will be possible across northern Lea county and higher
terrain.  Saturday, the thermal ridge will shift southward, though
highs generally in the 90s to around 100 degrees will continue to
be the rule, with the exception of higher terrain where highs will
again top out in the 80s. Saturday night, a retreating dryline
may edge into the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley, and a
subtle shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft may be enough
to result in a few thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos, though confidence in this scenario is not very
high. Attention continues to be focused on Sunday, when a big
change is expected as a cold front moves through the area. After
several days of well above normal temperatures, temperatures
Sunday will drop below normal, with highs in the lower to middle
80s for most, and 90s/100s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
Moisture will increase with the front on Sunday, resulting in the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the
southeastern Permian Basin southwestward to the Big Bend Area and
points east. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow will continue
to usher moisture into the region through midweek next week, with
ensemble guidance indicating precipitable water values one
standard deviation above normal from Monday afternoon through
Wednesday for much of the area. A series of disturbances in the
flow aloft will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast areawide
through next week, with the continued easterly/southeasterly flow
maintaining below normal temperatures through the extended.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns will remain heightened today, especially for
Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County. Although it will remain
dry all day, even this morning, critical conditions in the plains
will be most common from midday into the early evening when winds
will be strongest, 15-25 mph, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns. With such
dry conditions fire danger will very high to extreme. Critical
fire wx on Saturday is most favored in the GDP Mtns. A cold front
on Sunday will decreased fire wx concerns into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  71 100  66 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       98  64  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        101  74 100  73 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                 100  71  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  61  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          92  57  92  55 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  71 100  65 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                        100  71 100  65 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                          101  66 100  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/10/44



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