Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. TS will be in the area and
could affect TAF sites with variable and gusty winds, but coverage
will not be great enough to include in FM group of TAFs. Will
amend as needed with the greatest chances being between 19z-03z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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