Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261650
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through this evening.  After 06Z patchy low
clouds are possible at MAF, PEQ, FST and INK. Ceilings are not
forecast at this time. With better clearing and calm winds
further north, could see visibilities dropping below 3 miles at
CNM and HOB by daybreak with lighter fog at MAF, INK and PEQ.
Winds will generally be south to southeast at 12 knots or less
through Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.  Skies should slowly
scatter out over the next 24 hours, as an upper trough over West
texas drifts SE. Latest buffer soundings a widespread cu field
developing by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Stubborn upper low continues to meander across the region this
morning. Showers and even a few thunderstorms have been confined
mainly to the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend overnight. A
mid-level disturbance will help enhance showers and storms this
afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Only isolated
convection is expected over the Permian Basin while western areas
get a chance to dry out. Heavy rain will be a possibility today,
but should stay over locations that have had little rain over the
past week. Similar conditions are expected Saturday before the
pattern begins to change.

Another upper low will cut off from the flow today over the Great
Basin. This system will begin to kick out Sunday and help a weak
ridge build into our area early next week. Drier conditions and
temperatures near or above normal values are expected in its wake.
Models are now in somewhat better agreement that the next trough to
dig into the conus late next week will pass to our north with dry NW
flow over the area. This system does however look to bring a decent
cold front around Thursday with temps falling back to near normal
behind it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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