Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected expected most areas this TAF period. The
exception will be MAF 12-18Z Sunday morning as low CIGs move north
into the TAF site. Winds will shift from the northwest to the
southeast over the next 6-10 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a shortwave moving thru West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, with an associated band of -SHRA moving thru the upper
CO River Valley/Permian Basin.  MRMS totals yield QPEs under 1/4" in
most areas where rain fell.  Since we`re now in a drought, however,
anything is preferable to nothing.

As the sfc trough up north moves off to the east later this morning,
return flow resumes over the area, and temperatures rebound to well-
above normal.  Thicknesses/temps increase thru Mon afternoon under
SW flow aloft.  Sat night, the trough off the coast of SoCal/Baja is
forecast to open and begin moving east, south of a large-scale
trough dropping out of the PacNW.  Leeside troughing on the Front
Range ahead of this feature will induce westerly flow over the SW
CONUS, sharpening up a weak dryline mid-CWA Sunday.  By 00Z Mon,
forecast soundings east of the dryline yield mucapes in excess of
1000J/kg, in 45+kts of deep-lyr shear, w/some models initiating
convection along and east of the dryline Sun afternoon.

Monday, the PacNW trough continues digging into the Rockies,
increasing SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
It looks like Monday is shaping up to be a high wind event in the
Guadalupes, and we`ll give a heads-up for this in the HWO.

Unfortunately, a cold front arrives Tue night, and will take temps
back blo normal Wed afternoon.  SW flow aloft rounds out the
extended, w/temps slowly rebounding to near-normal by Fri
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  47  74  54 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       69  44  75  49 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  55  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  52  80  54 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 61  49  68  48 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          68  41  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  43  76  43 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  48  75  52 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         71  48  75  53 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           72  48  78  48 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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