Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 142014
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low is centered over northern TX with precipitation
wrapping around the low across east TX and the TX panhandle. This
upper low is an extension of an upper trough centered over the Great
Lakes. There is a slight chance of some of this wrap around light
rain impacting northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs in the
40s and 50s across the area except along the Rio Grande as the
surface high will be centered along the northern counties of the CWA
later this afternoon.

A portion of the previously mentioned upper low moves eastward and
becomes entrenched in the upper flow of the upper trough over the
Northeast/Great Lakes region.  Another portion of the upper low lags
behind and stalls out over northern Mexico.  Temperatures on
Wednesday will start to warm up from less cloud cover but will still
remain on the cool side due to northerly winds and the surface high
staying across the area.  On Thursday, an upper ridge will be
centered over the central US in between two upper troughs over the
west and east coasts.  The portion of the upper low lagging behind
will develop into a trough over northern Mexico, New Mexico, and
Texas.  A surface low will develop north of the area on Thursday
afternoon with surface winds out of the southwest to west across the
CWA.  These winds will contribute to downslope warming which will
allow for temperatures on Thursday to warm up about 10 degrees from
the previous day.

On Friday, the upper trough over the west coast deepens and starts
to move eastward by the weekend.  This will result in the upper
trough centered over northern Mexico to eject northeastward towards
the Oklahoma/Texas border.  The surface trough across the area will
strengthen allowing for temperatures on Friday to warm up into the
70s across much of the area.  The upper trough over the west coast
continues to strengthen and deepen on Saturday becoming centered
just south of southern California.  High temperatures on Saturday
are expected to be similar to those on Friday.  The upper trough
begins to move over the region on Sunday bringing an increase in
moisture across the eastern CWA and an increase in upper lift.  The
Canadian model shows this trough becoming negatively tilted but
keeping precipitation just to the east of the CWA.  The GFS and
ECMWF models show rain developing over the CWA on Sunday.  This
upper storm system will need to be monitored for the potential for
severe weather.  The upper trough continues to pass over the region
on Monday with the precipitation moving out of the area by Monday
afternoon. Upper ridging begins to develop over the region next
Tuesday.  Temperatures in the extended forecast are expected to be
above normal with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  57  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  57  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         39  62  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  35  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  51  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          29  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  52  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  59  32  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80



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