Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151248
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
748 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry ambient conditions are prevailing over the forecast area this
morning, although recovery in most locations is fair to good.
Temperatures will warm later today, but remain below normal for mid
April.  Despite the cool temperatures, minimum afternoon RHs will
drop to 10 to 15 percent everywhere with some locations along the
Trans Pecos in West Texas dropping into the single digits.  The
surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the region
this afternoon, especially over southeast New Mexico.  Therefore,
think 20 foot winds will rise to 15 to around 20 mph sustained over
the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  A few
locations may hit critical fire weather criteria, but do not think
any locations will have these conditions for 3 hours or more.  Have
issued a Fire Danger Statement for the above areas for this
afternoon.  Conditions are still looking favorable Wednesday for
critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains, so
will leave the Fire Weather Watch alone.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05



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