Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230551
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A sfc trough generating very tight sfc gradients and durinal
mixing will result in breezy conditions for most terminals next 24
hours. As the sfc trough moves east, sfc flow will veer to the
west, w/perhaps a little BLDU at KCNM. LLJ is forecast to advect a
few hrs of LIFR stratus into KMAF/KHOB before scattering out.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with
upper troughs over the west and east coasts.  Westerly flow is over
the area with southeast surface winds bringing in good low-level
moisture.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
higher terrain this afternoon and early evening with cumulus already
starting to appear on satellite. The cold front that has recently
moved into the area will result in high temperatures this afternoon
being cooler than yesterday but still well above normal.

The upper trough that is over the west coast will move eastward over
the Four Corners Region by Thursday evening.  The approach of this
upper trough will bring an increase in the surface pressure gradient
and an increase in upper level winds.  These gusty winds will be
across the whole CWA.  High winds are likely across the Guadalupe
Mountains so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Wind
Advisories will likely be issued later for portions of the plains
for tomorrow. A surface trough will also be present across the area
with a dryline along this trough. Mid-level lapse rates and bulk
shear will be very high, and there will be a narrow area just along
and east of the dryline with decent CAPE values Thursday afternoon
and evening. Upper level lift will also be very good so these
conditions will allow for a chance of severe thunderstorms to
develop Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the
dryline. The models are not showing convection developing until 00z
or after and keep most of it across southeast New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The dryline will tighten up Thursday evening
with moist southeast winds ahead of it and dry southwest to west
winds behind it.  These dry winds will contribute to increased fire
weather concerns.  See the fire weather discussion below. The models
show that the convection is mostly east of the CWA by Friday
morning.

The upper trough will pass over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds associated with a Pacific front blowing across the CWA.  This
will result in temperatures mostly being in the 70s on Friday.  As
the upper trough moves east of the region, surface winds will shift
towards the north Friday night as a cold front moves into the area.
Winds will quickly return to the south on Saturday so daytime highs
on Saturday may actually be slightly higher than the previous day.
Another upper trough moves over the region on Sunday with gusty west
surface winds resulting in temperatures on Sunday warming up into
the 80s across much of the area. Yet another upper trough is
expected to move over the region sometime during the middle part of
next week although the models are off on the timing of it.
Temperatures in the extended will mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

FIRE WEATHER...

Thursday is still on track to be very dry and windy across the
western half of the CWA from southeastern New Mexico to the Presidio
Valley. It will be very windy farther east but south winds will
advect moisture into the Permian Basin keeping relative humidities
above 15 percent. A line of thunderstorms will form along a pacific
front in Lea County and move southeast during the afternoon and
evening providing moisture mainly north of a line from Hobbs to Big
Lake. Have upgraded the watch to a warning and will have to keep an
eye on Friday. It will remain windy behind the front on Friday but
cooler temperatures will mean relative humidities will be
marginal. For now have opted to hold off issuing a Fire Weather
Watch for Friday and evaluate further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  75  47 /  10  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       87  48  77  40 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         82  55  83  51 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  85  52  77  47 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  40  67  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          82  46  72  38 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          83  40  69  36 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  52  76  46 /  10  40  10   0
Odessa                         83  51  76  46 /  10  40  10   0
Wink                           86  49  77  44 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44



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