National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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FXUS64 KMAF 111930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Intensifying surface trough over the forecast area is kicking
up the wind this afternoon and wind advisory criteria is
currently occurring in the Marfa Plateau, Van Horn highway 54
corridor and Davis Mountains. These winds should slacken somewhat
by 3 pm cdt as the gradient weakens in these areas so will let the
wind advisory expire on time their. High winds are currently
occurring in the Guadalupe Mountains and will continue this
warning the rest of this afternoon, tonight and Wednesday
morning.

By Tonight a northern stream trough will push a strong cold front
south to Mexico by Wednesday morning. Very windy conditions are
expected behind this front tonight across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas. Have extended the wind advisory overnight to
include southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. Will continue
the high wind warning for the Guadalupe Mountains especially Guadalupe
Pass due to a strong pressure gradient funnelling northeast winds
through passes and canyons. Areas of blowing dust are expected
areawide as well.

Much cooler and much below normal temperatures will follow this
front Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region
behind the front.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Thursday and much
above normal by Friday and Saturday with no precipitation
expected ahead of a southern stream upper level low pressure
system. There is still significant model spread concerning the
timing and moisture availability of this system so kept the
forecast dry for now. Cooled temperatures considerably on Sunday
to below normal when the potential impact of the system will be
greatest. A warming and drying trend is expected behind this
system next Monday and Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Latest sfc analysis shows RH`s of 15% or less extending from the SE
NM Plains/Wrn Low Rolling Hills south into the Davis Mtns/Stockton
Plateau, w/some single-digit RH observations noted.  Westerly sfc
flow has also increased to critical thresholds, especially over the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains and mid-Pecos River Valley.  This lines up
well w/the current NAM fields.  NAM suggests red flag conditions
will cease by 03Z, so the current RFW looks to be in good shape.
Winds will increase again later this evening w/the arrival of a
strong cold front, but RH`s will be out of critical territory by
fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  55  31  64  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              38  57  34  67  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                38  56  27  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  44  64  45  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  55  38  66  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  51  30  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   33  56  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  51  25  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  57  32  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  37  57  34  65  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    39  59  33  67  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM MDT Wednesday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Wednesday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Terrell...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 3 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/12
National Weather Service National Headquarters
