Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 200010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Issuance
VFR Conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Winds
will decrease slightly but remain gusty overnight before
increasing once again Fri afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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