National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Generally light
westerly sfc flow will continue, w/a few high clouds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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