Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261901
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Typical summer pattern in place into this weekend with the upper
ridge overhead providing hot temperatures with storms confined to
the higher terrain. Convective coverage will be less than yesterday
as increasing heights and subsidence help to suppress most CU
development. Hi-res models show an outflow boundary sparking a
few storms very late tonight across parts of SE NM so have kept
PoPs going there through Thursday morning. Even though
temperatures will be above normal, it will only be by 3-5
degrees. Midland Intl has only hit 100 degrees once this month
which is far from our hottest month on record last July!

Not much change through the weekend until the upper ridge weakens
and shifts slightly west. By this time a weak front will penetrate
the ridge and could backdoor into the region late Sunday. This will
be highly dependent on the amount of convection to our north
which could push the front in sooner. Models have delayed the
onset of midlevel northerly flow by a day or so. While showers and
storms will increase early next week, greater chances hold off
until the middle to latter part of next week. Latest models have
also backed off on the much cooler temperatures for next week.
Will have to wait and see if this trend continues, but more clouds
and rain around should at the very least help temperatures fall
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  98  72  98 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         75  99  75  99 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          70  96  69  96 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  91  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  73 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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