


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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240 FXUS64 KMAF 290540 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Isolated to scattered storms possible each day. More widespread activity expected on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, rain chances focused across southeast New Mexico southward into Davis Mountains. - Gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning, as well as localized flooding are main risks with any storms, particularly over the Davis Mountains and adjacent plains. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 As in previous days, showers and thunderstorms are developing in/around the Davis Mountains. Ultimately, outside of the higher terrain, where thunderstorms develop today yet again depends largely on where outflow boundaries develop and move. So, while the highest rain/thunderstorm chances will be in the Davis Mountains (50-60%), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should also be expected for locations along and west of the Pecos River (20-40% chance) and into the Permian Basin of West Texas (10-30% chance). Though the Flood Watch has been cancelled, some flash flooding concerns remain, particularly for locations in/near the Davis Mountains (which have received ample rainfall the past few days and were still dealing with flooded roadways as of this morning). In any case, by tonight rain and thunderstorm activity wanes, and temperatures bottom out a couple of degrees above normal (low-to-mid 70s, with typical cool spots in the upper 60s). Very little changes tomorrow compared to today. Rain and storm chances once again increase tomorrow afternoon. The best chances (50- 60%) will be in the Davis Mountains, with additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development expected later in the day for roughly the same locations as today. Meanwhile, weak pulses in the flow aloft will provide added forcing for shower and thunderstorm development over the northern Permian Basin later in the afternoon/evening (10-20% chance). Highs top out in the mid-to-upper 90s for most, and lows will be nearly identical to tonight`s. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Weak ridging holds to the north and west to begin the coming week and gradually shifts across the southern half of the US through the rest of the week. However, undercutting that ridge will be short wave troughs that will hold over southern New Mexico and over West Texas. This will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s for much of the region. This pattern will keep up the quasi-monsoonal conditions that the western half of the CWA has seen over the last several days. The best rain chances will continue to be west of the Pecos River Valley with a gradient of lower chances for the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. The Davis Mountains and adjacent plains look to benefit the most from this pattern where ensemble guidance shows another half inch to an inch of rain in the area over the next few days. Greater amounts may be possible. While most storms will not be severe, flash flooding will be a problem for areas that see repeated rain events each day. Forecast lows remain about the same each day for the extended with most locations in the low 70s and the higher terrain dipping into the 60s. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in generally light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL. Convection is possible, but chances are too low for a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 74 95 70 / 10 10 30 50 Carlsbad 94 71 89 68 / 20 20 50 50 Dryden 97 74 94 72 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Stockton 94 72 92 69 / 30 20 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 86 66 82 62 / 30 20 50 40 Hobbs 92 69 89 66 / 20 20 50 60 Marfa 85 64 83 63 / 60 40 60 50 Midland Intl Airport 97 74 94 70 / 10 20 30 50 Odessa 95 72 93 69 / 10 20 30 50 Wink 95 72 92 69 / 20 20 40 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44