Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 050517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds have started to return northward. Expect widespread
MVFR cigs and vsbys with isolated IFR conditions toward morning.
Wind will come around to the W tomorrow with skies rapidly
clearing from west to east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at
least through Monday morning.  Precipitation mode will mainly be
rain, but the Davis, Glass, Chinati and Chisos Mountains above 6000
feet could see a mix of rain and snow, or all snow.  There will be a
warmup Monday, before the southernmost extent of a sprawling arctic
airmass eases into the region Tuesday afternoon, which briefly
retreats Tuesday night/Wednesday before very cold air dumps south
through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The ua low over the Mexican states of Chihuahua/Sinaloa/Durango this
afternoon will eject northeastward through tonight, then into
central Texas Monday afternoon.  This track will result in the
precipitation shield extending southwest to northeast over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, or along and south of a
Davis Mountains to western Low Rolling Plains line.  Precipitation
will fall as light to moderate rain, except in the higher elevations
of the Davis/Glass and Chisos/Chinati Mountains.  Fairly decent
agreement on the track of the ua low amongst models indicate h7 and
h85-h5 thicknesses, will drop below 0C, and 415-418 dam,
respectively.  This will likely result in all snow above 6000 feet.
Well above normal PWats of 0.75-1" along and south of Interstate
20 through tonight, will make 1-3 inches of snow possible in all of
these mountains, but especially in the Chisos/Chinati Mountains
where the better chance of/heavier precipitation, and some
indication of elevated instability will reside from late this
afternoon and overnight.  Amounts in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Glass Mountains may not be as high, but these will be included
in a Winter Weather Advisory nonetheless.  Temperatures in the
lower levels of the atmosphere will be too warm for more than a mix
of rain and snow between 4000 and 6000 feet, so may include a mix of
rain and snow for the Marfa Plateau and Alpine areas with little to
no accumulation expected.

Precipitation will wind down Monday morning, and expect temperatures
to warm to near normal levels under weak northwest flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday, however
the mentioned arctic airmass will be oozing south through the
central U.S. Plains in the wake of a northern stream ua trough.  The
modified southern extent of the above mentioned arctic airmass will
arrive Tuesday morning, but an expanding longwave trough over the
Great Basin will keep westerly flow aloft over our region and mix
the shallow cold airmass out Tuesday afternoon/night.  A shortwave
trough within the parent ua trough will eject eastward over the
central U.S. Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday, sending the arctic
airmass plunging south through the forecast area.  Will reissue a
special Weather Statement concerning this cold airmass, which could
be the coldest we have seen in a couple of years.  There are a few
indications some precipitation could fall behind the arctic front
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but will leave any mention out
until there is much better agreement than currently seen with the
latest model runs.  Temperatures could moderate to near normal
levels as early as Saturday due to mainly westerly flow aloft
shunting the arctic airmass eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  57  39  52 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  63  45  68 /  80  50   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  64  43  65 /  70  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  56  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  60  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  31  61 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  59  39  57 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                         37  59  38  58 /  40  20   0   0
Wink                           37  63  38  61 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$


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