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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191914
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today the dryline will be less distinct this far s and the models
have trended dwpnts lower farther e across the PB this PM. Across
the BB/Lower Trans Pecos regions low level mstr holds in place in
wake of this mornings precip. The general trend in guidance
including CAMs is for less convection. We too will trend PoPs
down this PM, but not remove. Across the BB/Lower Trans Pecos the
atmosphere will have to hurry to recover, but there are
indications of a shrtwv trof in water vapor imagery in NW
Chihuahua, MX. We expect there will be a narrow corridor of
sufficient SB instability behind exiting clouds/precip and e of
the drier air from BB/Lower Trans Pecos into the far NE CWFA for
storms this afternoon/evening. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible. High based clouds and steep LR`s favors gusty wind
and some hail. Precip will dissipate with loss of daytime heating
probably around 03Z. By Wed mid level flow is a little more sw and
convective potential will mostly be confined to the Trans Pecos
and in the very far ern CWFA early in the evening. More of the
same Thur, mid level flow will be even more sw and low level mstr
will be able to hold in farther w, thus a slight chance of tstms
is warranted across the PB. 5h heights will slowly fall into Thur,
but despite this 85h temps/thermal ridge will remain amplified
and above normal temps will persist. By Fri/Sat said thermal ridge
is much less so across the most of the PB, thus cooler. Farther w
across SE NM underneath the more substantial mid level height
falls there will be a better chance of storms as 90-100kt (Fri)
and 75kt (Sat) 3h jets come out across NM resulting in much better
chance for storms SE NM into the Trans Pecos, even on Sunday. Of
course we`ll wait and see but there are some indications in the
deterministic models and ensemble data (NAEFS) that the trof to
west will eventually be cutoff from nrn stream with split flow
developing. Nrn stream may drive a front s and srn stream provides
jet energy setting up a favorable pattern for rain Sun-Tue?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  73  99 /  20  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       65  97  66  96 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         75 101  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  97  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  86  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  94  66  93 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          60  90  61  89 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           75  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         74  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           69 100  71  99 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$