Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
133 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough moving across the central Rockies and Plains
will drag a cold front through the forecast area late tonight
and Saturday. A Decent pressure gradient is progged behind this
front and could result in a brief period of wind advisory
criteria realized across the southeast New Mexico Plains and
portions of the Permian Basin late tonight and Saturday. Since
the winds will be mainly a second period event will let the
midnight shift make the final call.

After record high temperatures today, high temperatures Saturday
will be at or below normal across much of the region despite some
sunshine expected.

The forecast gets tricky Saturday night, early Sunday morning as
a cool surface high pressure center builds into west Texas.
Temperatures will fall to near freezing with a freeze possible
in portions of the northern and central Permian Basin that have
yet to see freezing temperatures this fall. The fly in the
ointment will be that considerable high cloudiness is expected
Saturday night which could keep temperatures up a couple of
degrees. Later shifts will need to monitor.

Beyond Saturday night the weather looks quiet through the next
work week as a northwest to northerly flow aloft regime takes
place between a west coast upper ridge and eastern trough. A
dry cold front is expected Tuesday with seasonal temperatures
expected for much of next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty southwest winds will persist through this afternoon, as will
minimum afternoon RHs of 10-15%, and a few locations reaching
critical conditions.  Since High Fire Danger rating is marginal,
will leave the Fire Danger Statement in effect and not issue a Red
Flag Warning.  Wind speeds will begin to settle down after 17/23Z,
but rHs will be slow to rise.  Recovery will only be poor most
locations tonight.

Dry conditions will continue on Saturday despite the arrival of a
cold front.  Gusty northerly winds behind the front will last
through much of the day, while minimum RHs drop to 15-20% Saturday
afternoon.  Cooler conditions will last through Sunday with
readings rising a few degrees above normal Monday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are expected today.

Location     Fcst     Old Record     Year
--------     ----     ----------     ----
MAF           89          84         1933/1981
Wink          91          84         1948/1966
Fort Stockton 92          88         1981
Big Spring    89          82         1981
Hobbs         85          85         1981
Carlsbad      87          81         1948/1999/2016

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  63  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  63  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  76  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  67  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  57  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  58  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  66  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  63  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  63  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  64  33  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/12


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