Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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260
FXUS64 KMAF 202330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
530 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018


.AVIATION...

00Z TAF issuance...

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is high wind speeds
expected Sunday afternoon. Currently have diminishing SW winds
across the region but expect winds to back to the south overnight at
MAF and FST. The NAM brings low cigs into MAF early Sunday morning
however winds may veer to the SW/W for they make it. As a result,
will not include mention of low clouds in MAF TAF at this time. West
winds will increase through the morning hours Sunday, reaching
30-35kt sustained and gusts up to 40-50kt by mid day. Strong winds
will likely result in BLDU and think at least MVFR vis will be
possible. Lower vis could definitely occur though, especially at
CNM where wind speeds look to be highest. Otherwise, strong west
winds across the mountain regions will result in severe
turbulence, especially for light, low flying aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over southern California with southwest flow
aloft over the CWA. There is a surface trough across the area with
southwest to west surface winds. These winds are contributing to
downslope warming resulting in temperatures that are mostly in the
70s this afternoon. These temperatures are almost 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

The upper trough will begin to move over the region on Sunday with
the base of the trough passing over the CWA. High winds from the
base of the trough will mix downward towards the surface. A tight
surface pressure gradient will also be in place across the area. A
High Wind Warning is now in effect for the Guadalupe and
Davis/Apache Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, southeast
New Mexico, Upper Trans Pecos, Reeves County, and the western
Permian Basin for Sunday. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Permian Basin, Pecos County, and the Marfa Plateau.
Patchy blowing dust and areas of blowing dust will be possible
across most of the area. A Pacific cold front will also move through
the area on Sunday accompanied by west winds and cooler
temperatures. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to mostly be
in the 50s and 60s. Winds across the area will weaken by Monday as
the upper trough moves east, and temperatures will be slightly
cooler than the previous day. Temperatures will warm up slightly on
Tuesday then cool a little on Wednesday and warm up again Thursday
and Friday. The base of another upper trough is expected to move
over the area beginning next Friday possibly resulting in more
strong winds. A cold front will then move through the area next
Saturday with below normal temperatures. The forecast is expected to
remain mostly dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

We have decided to upgrade and expand the watch to a Red Flag
Warning for Sunday. A wind storm is expected but there are
indications that the air will be drier and thus the upgrade and
expansion. The winds will be the big show, however fuels do mitigate
greater concerns. Even though we expected fire danger to be high-
very high indicative of the dry grasses the bigger composite fuel
picture is not all that dry, ERC values have not moved into any
critical levels increased initial attack is the mostly likely
outcome. Winds will decrease and turn northwest by Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  61  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  69  36  64 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  59  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  44  25  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          35  54  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  53  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  58  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  59  29  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday for Southeast
     Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM
     MST/ Sunday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Watch Sunday afternoon for Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Sunday for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

&&

$$

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