Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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048
FXUS64 KMAF 220529
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

VFR conditions continue across the terminals with thunderstorms
currently affecting HOB. Storms don`t look to last very much longer
but will continue a TEMPO TSRA at HOB for another hour and amend for
any changes. Expect MVFR cigs to develop tonight, affecting MAF, HOB
and potentially FST and INK through morning. Confidence is low
timing of low stratus due to ongoing convection so will continue to
monitor current trends and amend when needed. Low clouds will begin
to break by late morning with VFR conditions prevailing through
Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
an upper-lvl ridge between two systems, one over the Great lakes
region, and the other over eastern OR.  Sfc observations show
return flow has backed a weak dryline up against the mountains,
w/dewpoints in the 50s as far west as KROW-KCNM-KMRF-KPRS.  East of
the dryline, sfc analysis shows a ridge of cape in excess of
3000J/kg extending from LBBB-K6R6, w/radar showing convection
developing over the Davis Mtns.  Coupled w/a shortwave in WV imagery
approaching thru Chihuahua, things could get somewhat busy shortly.
W/mid-lvl LR`s in excess of 7C/km over the northern half of the CWA,
dcapes in excess of 1000J/kg throughout, and deep lyr shear of 35-
45kts, large hail/damaging winds will be possible w/the stronger
storms.  However, forecast soundings develop impressive helicities
after 00Z, w/LCLs 1500-2500` AGL, so an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.  We`d insert a svr mention into the grids, but would
rather reserve that for Sunday, in which the dryline will be a
little sharper/further east, and parameters mentioned above a bit
more favorable for severe wx than today`s.  W/the dryline further
east on Sunday, this will result in critical fire wx conditions in
some areas west of the dryline, and we`ve put the Guadalupes into a
Fire Wx Watch as a result.  Monday, continued leeside troughing/sw
flow will push the dryline even further east, where it will remain
on the eastern fringes of the CWA thru the rest of the week,
favoring slight chances of convection each day there.  Longer range
models hint at more widespread convection possibly Thursday or so,
when a trough is forecast to pass north of the region.

Otherwise, temps should remain above normal for the most of the week,
coming back to near-normal in the extended as the aforementioned
trough approaches and thicknesses fall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       61  95  61  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         73  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  66  95 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  87  59  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  90  60  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          50  86  49  88 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  69  95 /  20  20  20  10
Odessa                         71  94  69  95 /  20  10  20  10
Wink                           66  96  66  96 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72



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