Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hour is brief gusty winds
behind a strong cold front tonight. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds this morning will
quickly increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained, gusting to
25-27kt by the afternoon. Winds will diminish for a couple of hours
this evening before a strong cold front arrives around 26/03Z at
CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ by 26/04Z. Expect north winds
near 20-25kt sustained and gusts near 30-35kt. Occasionally higher
wind speeds will be possible. Low visibilities due to BLDU is
definitely possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.

The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.

Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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