Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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816
FXUS64 KMAF 181952
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  72  45  73 /  10  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  50  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          38  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           47  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72



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