Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 182339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with generally southeasterly winds will continue
through the forecast period. High-res guidance indicates the
potential for a few showers/storms to develop across SE NM after
10Z tonight, which would mainly affect CNM and possibly HOB later
in the morning. However, temporal/spatial uncertainty precludes
mention at this time, thus will continue to monitor trends for
potential inclusion of SHRA/TSRA in later issuances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A fairly quiet weather pattern the past few days will become more
active this weekend into next week as a series of cold fronts move
through.

Weak, zonal flow across the region and southerly winds at the
surface have pushed temperatures well into the 80`s already this
afternoon. A weak disturbance over AZ will move east and reach the
area sometime tomorrow. Clouds will increase overnight ahead of this
system, likely keeping temperatures much warmer Thursday morning
than what we have seen earlier in the week. Clouds will stick around
much of the day tomorrow which should help high temperatures fall
back a few degrees from what we are seeing today. We also can`t rule
out a few showers and storms, especially across SE NM. Rain chances
will decrease from west to east Thursday night into Friday as the
disturbance moves away from the area.

On Friday an upper trough is expected to move onshore in the Pacific
NW. Ahead of this system temperatures will warm back above normal
both Friday and Saturday across the area. As the upper trough moves
across the Plains this weekend, it will drag a cold front through
the area Saturday night. We could see a storm or two along the front
across the far eastern Permian Basin, but the best forcing will be
further east. The cooler airmass behind this front will not last as
upper ridging briefly builds in Monday from the west. Yet another
cold front is expected Tuesday as a large upper trough develops over
the Great Lakes. It looks like only a glancing blow for our area
though as temperatures warm back above normal by the end of next
week with dry conditions continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  78  62  80 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       57  75  55  86 /  10  30  40  10
Dryden                         57  77  63  81 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  59  79  60  87 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  75  56  81 /  20  30  50  10
Hobbs                          54  74  55  80 /   0  20  30  10
Marfa                          53  81  51  83 /  10  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  75  62  82 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         58  75  62  81 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           57  78  58  85 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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