Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty westerlies are
anticipated this afternoon, but should decouple after sunset and
become light by the end of the forecast period as gradients
slacken. A few mid/hi clouds are expected, as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the west by around 16Z this morning, with
gusts to 20-30kt possible through the afternoon. Gusts will
gradually diminish after 30/00Z as winds veer to the northwest.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
There is an upper low centered west of the Great Lakes this
morning with a trough extending southwestward to Mexico. As this
trough moves east will get some brief ridging before a secondary
trough moves down the West Coast.

Should be breezy again today with a brisk west wind. This will
come around to the NW tonight when the upper trough pushes a
cold front through the area. All the counties except along the Rio
Grande have had a freeze this season but many of the central
counties have not had a hard freeze. Cold air advection along with
a dry airmass should result in a hard freeze late tonight/early
Wednesday morning for the Upper Trans Pecos counties westward to
Culberson. Should see lows into the 20s for SE NM... Western
Permian Basin... and much of the Trans Pecos. Will go ahead and
issue a Freeze Warning for a hard freeze for those counties late
tonight. Temperatures warm mid week before another front toward
the weekend knocks them down.

There is uncertainty in the models as how the West Coast trough
will turn out. Some models show the trough progressing across
the area while others develop it into a cut off low to the west.
There will be the possibility of precip developing with this
system and for now will keep it all in liquid form.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  31  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  27  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  25  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  22  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  29  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

44/80/44



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