Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10


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