Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 161513 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
913 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will let the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Pass expire,
though winds may flirt with criteria for the next hour or so.

Removed mention of precipitation this morning in the lower Trans
Pecos region based on latest trends. Tweaked dewpoints today a
little lower.


updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Except for another hour or two of MVFR ceilings at KFST, VFR
conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

It`s a cold, blustery morning across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas in the wake of a very strong cold front that moved
through the region yesterday afternoon/evening. Gusty northerly to
northeasterly winds this morning will result in wind chill values
in the single digits and teens across most of the area, and wind
chills in the single digits below zero possible across the higher
terrain. High winds are also expected to continue through
Guadalupe Pass this morning, where a High Wind Warning remains in
effect. Wind speeds will gradually decrease through the day,
however, under lingering cloud cover, high temperatures will only
top out in the 20s and 30s.

Fortunately in our area, the rapid intrusion of dry air behind the
front has made it difficult for any wintry precipitation to reach
the ground. However, slippery conditions are possible to the
south, especially along I-10 from the split to east of Fort
Stockton, so those traveling this morning will need to exercise
caution, especially on bridges and overpasses. Any lingering show
showers across portions of the Big Bend Area and Terrell county
will diminish by lunchtime, with little to no accumulation
expected, as precipitation continues to shift to the southeast.
Tonight, surface high pressure will develop southward across East
Texas, resulting in light southeasterly winds overnight. Given
decreasing clouds, efficient radiational cooling is expected, with
one more very cold night on tap with lows in the teens and 20s
areawide.

Temperatures will begin to slowly recover into the middle 30s and
40s on Wednesday, ahead of a shortwave progged to move
southeastward across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Models have been trending drier with this disturbance, given much
of the moisture across the region has been scoured out by the cold
front, and little moisture return is anticipated ahead of this
feature. Thus, have maintained a dry forecast into next weekend.
Above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s will return Friday
and Saturday, with a front Sunday expected to result in
temperatures closer to normal to end the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  14  42  22 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       33  17  40  21 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         37  23  42  24 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  29  20  40  24 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 24  13  35  26 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          32  14  37  19 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  17  41  21 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           32  15  40  22 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         32  16  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           32  17  40  20 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99



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