Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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241
FXUS64 KMAF 211110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Currently have VFR conditions across the board this morning as an
area of showers continues to diminish and move north. Should have a
break in activity through early afternoon with VFR persisting.
Thunderstorms will be possible again later this afternoon but
confidence too low to include mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge centered off the NC coast stretches to TX with a
closed low over the CA coast.  Circulation between this high and low
pulling Pacific moisture across Mexico and into SE NM and W TX.
This low will spin over CA the next several days before lifting NE
over the ridge late in the week.  By the weekend the ridge will
build over the Western US.

Looking at another couple more warm days with near normal
temperatures before a front bridges down into the area Wednesday.
Could see highs in the 80s for much of the area WEdnesday and
Thursday before warmer temps return for the end of the week.  Warm
overnight lows will continue as have good low level Gulf moisture
with dewpts in the 60s.

Had lots of storms over the west yesterday with some locations
receiving heavy rain.  As of 08z a stream of showers and
thunderstorms flows northward from the Rio Grande up across the
Trans Pecos and SE NM.  These storms should continue through the
morning hours before dieing out... expect more to develop during the
afternoon.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for SE NM
southward to the Presidio Valley... have extended the watch out to
15z as heavy rain potential continues.  Rain chances Tuesday will
once again favor the higher elevations with possibility of rain
along the front for the plains on Wednesday.

***On a side note, the sky forecast for the solar eclipse today
may be somewhat disappointing for many. Overnight convection
continues early this morning and is expected to persist through
at least sunrise. Unfortunately, clouds look to stick around
through much of day, especially across SE NM and south through
the Upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. The best shot for at
least partly cloudy skies at the time of the eclipse maximum
(12:57pm CDT) looks to be over the central-eastern Permian Basin
down through the Lower Trans Pecos and perhaps the Big Bend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  73  94  71 /  10   0  20  50
Carlsbad                       85  69  93  70 /  40  20  20  30
Dryden                         97  74  96  75 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  71  95  71 /  20  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 80  66  84  65 /  50  20  30  30
Hobbs                          85  68  89  68 /  30  20  30  40
Marfa                          85  63  86  62 /  30  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           93  73  94  72 /  10  10  20  50
Odessa                         93  72  95  71 /  10  10  20  40
Wink                           91  71  95  71 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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