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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY.  THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK.  THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.  WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS.  IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION.  DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY.  WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.

THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.  MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE.  WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.

FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.


&&

$$